Hi Frederichs. Honestly think you are wrong. You are overthinking the crypto market. Fear and greed are governing the paths of each coin. Yes you are correct in saying banks fear for crypto currencies as it will definitely affect their profits if they don't get involved somewhere.
I think a lot of first timers got burnt in the last Bitcoin rally thinking they can make a quick buck and didn't pull out when they should have. They would have done some homework because of the greed factor and will be back sooner than later. I think the next 3 months will boom leaving more people wishing they had been part of it. It is only going to get bigger whether banks or governments like it or not.
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Agree,second quarter is always good for crypto.I am expecting big rise from mid April to July.