John Mearsheimer predicted the war, now he predicts how it will end (skip the 6 min intro):
Current Status:
The war is an attrition war, meant to exhaust the enemy.
Winning depends on resolve, population, and artillery.
Russia's population advantage is around 5:1 due to Ukrainian refugees.
Artillery balance heavily favors Russia, possibly up to 10:1.
Casualty Exchange Ratio is around 2:1 in Russia's favor.
Ukraine is struggling with troop numbers, Russia has not fully mobilized.
**Future Predictions**
:
Russia aims to annex 4 more oblasts, including Odessa and Kharkiv.
The goal is to incorporate ethnic Russians and weaken Ukraine.
Russia has no interest in conquering western Ukraine.
Peace is unlikely due to disagreements on territory, neutrality, and deep-seated hatred.
NATO expansion has led to the current crisis, with more potential problems ahead.
F16s won't change the outcome due to time to train pilots, Russian air defense, and the risk of escalation.
If Russians were losing, nuclear use may be considered, but currently this risk is low as Russia is leading.
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