Hive sure has had a nice pump over the last 48 hours thanks to Huobi. Regardless, I hope we're all staying grounded and people aren't fomo'ing to be potential bagholders. I think these new buyers are mainly riding the hype train and probably aren't fully educated on what Hive even is. Who knows. Doesn't matter.
If you've been in the game for a while, you've seen this happen many times. What goes up must come down. If you are liquid, what would keep you from seizing this golden opportunity to take a little off the table or diversify into some more mainstream crypto options?
Despite peer pressure, it's perfectly ok to sell to benefit personally from a steep move. The same logic applies for buying on a huge dip. There's little difference, but it seems taboo to sell on a proof of stake chain. If anyone discourages, questions, or shames you for that, they're not a true ally. They just want comfort that they're not alone. Safety and security in numbers.
As we've heard for years from those abusing the rewards pool, "it's your stake and you can do whatever you want with it." This works both ways. It's ok to sell some Hive because it's up a ton and who knows if it'll be here tomorrow. If you sell, you will be just fine, and maybe even benefit more in the long run because of it. You can also buy back on a dip and pocket the delta. If it keeps rising, then you can feel good that you acted in your best interest at the time and took some risk off the table.
What tokens do you want to hold if crypto gets crushed in a global depression?
I'm sure that Hive will be a common theme, especially with prices surging from an exchange listing. However, try to think a little more about it. Should you be holding everything after a rapid 215% gain?????
Ironically, I can confidently say that almost nobody will be saying that they'd want to hold Steem during a depression when projects could get severely strained. The crazy thing is that most of us here would've vehemently said YES to Steem two months ago when Hive didn't exist. Think about that.
Crypto can come and go overnight. Forks can mint tokens out of thin air with multi-million dollar market caps, simply by copying a database. It's exciting and intoxicating, but fickle. Hive is the latest and greatest spin off of Steem, but can it truly gain momentum with a few new bells and whistles (and far less people) when most money and attention flows elsewhere in the space? If the concept didn't attract the masses before, or get the attention of the crypto world in a significant way until Justin Sun and Ned had their last dance, why should we expect something better now? Price is not always a good indication of progress and development.
Paper profit is also obviously not realized until you convert it into fiat, or until the globe is using the token as a function of the GDP, where you can actually use it day-to day. That's going to take a while, so fiat is the metric here, not estimated account values. Furthermore, inflationary tokens are most viable when adoption increases, but we're not really seeing that. The Huobi pump isn't really adoption. It seems like short-term speculative plays and fomo buys would outnumber the genuine new adopters buying Hive to use the chain, but who knows.
Securing some gains or diversifying is good practice and not a bad idea (as unromantic as it is to say on a proof of stake platform).
As they say, "buy the rumor, sell the news." China is clearly buying the news and trading the hell out of it. I hope prices hold, but there's the strong potential that this run will be exhausted soon, and some people might have some regrets that they didn't capitalize. Even if you park your inflated Hive proceeds in a stable coin or other token, you can always buy back via @blocktrades!
Personally in hindsight, selling about $1,200 USD of Steem years ago was the smartest "Steem" move I ever did. Even though it wasn't a huge score, it was good practice, and I remember that part the most. Sadly, several years and ~1,100 posts later, my holdings at the time of the fork were significantly less, yet I had far more Steem in my wallet. That's where I'm coming from when I see Hive up 215% and see the pump posts start to show their ugly faces.
Not the boats!
During the Steem era, @theycallmedan once talked about "burning the boats." That's very noble, but you really shouldn't/don't have to do that with crypto in order to achieve meaningful or substantial success. In my eyes, that's more applicable to general life goals, not financial where we're at the mercy of a select group of "democratically" voted witnesses at the helm. Many of these are the one who kicked things into gear once their boats were rocked during a hostile takeover. Also, potentially corrupt exchanges can manipulate things as we've seen. That's a lot of risk not in your control and a lot of points of failure (or success).
"Burning the boats" seems to be for those who are prepared and able to lose everything, those who have no desire to stay connected and balanced to other sensible options, or those will little overhead/family obligations. Not everyone has to go to that length to win. Furthermore, going all-in like that with real money and savings in such a volatile environment can lead to a big loss... with no outs.
It's good to have outs when playing loose. You'll hit some hands and get paid off, but you will certainly miss quite a bit. When you're all-in, everything is at risk, and you likely need a lot of help or luck to survive to stay alive. It's understandable that some wins will boost your confidence in the path, but even if red hits 10 times in a row, the chance of red hitting next is still 50%.
Emotions:
No, I don't mean expressing yourself with gifs, memes and emojis.
Emotions often run high in the cryptoshpere and are dangerous with money involved. Despite all attempts not to do so, people will always make emotional decisions, be afraid to get in, or hesitant to let go. Fear and greed are difficult to manage.To make this more complicated, a social blockchain such as Hive exacerbates this by promoting a bandwagon effect. It's ok to march by the beat of your own drum. In fact, it's probably much better to do so.
Mon[k]ey see, mon[k]ey do. It happens, but it doesn't have to.
Heck, I was married to Steem's vision for years, but the divorce papers were recently signed. My post here is also emotional, so I'm no better. It's impossible unless you're a bot.
Investor bias can also make the best crack or make illogical decisions. It causes people to refuse to diversify, or see the forrest through the trees (ironically). The devout faith and boldness is inspiring, but my gut worries about this type mindset, fueled by the staking mechanism.
For most, this pump is likely just another day in the crypto game. Many have been humbled by this in the past, or know someone who has paid the price for action or inaction (especially without planning). Regardless, people still willingly set themselves up to have tunnel vision and all eggs in limited baskets with high hopes. As many have burned their boats, there is and no backup plan or life preserver if something backfires. In crypto, there are a lot of potential points of failure, and even black swans. People can think they can take it on the chin, but when you lose it all as others succeed in the next lane, it won't be so easy.
I hope we all succeed in crypto, and I bet that most of us will because we're involved ahead of the globe. Every swing doesn't need to be for the fences though. The world will still turn, and the blockchains will still offer the freedoms and protection if you're fully strapped to it or not.
While risk and reward often like to correlate for "sick gains," being in crypto at all is risky enough. We're already playing with fire, so please take time to recalibrate/reassess regularly so you don't get burned.
Not investment advice:
My gut consistently tells me to keep crypto simple by sticking with my game plan of hitting my Bitcoin and Ethereum targets first. I find solace and sleep easy with that strategy. This is just me here and I'm no guru. I can't seem to shake that instinct, even though I've dabbled a bit with alts over the years, but nothing more than 2-3% of my stack at most. Am I risk averse? Hell no. I'm eye deep in crypto. I just prefer to be where the most investment, utility potential and development is right now. I can always swap later. I also like deflationary far more than inflationary.
It's been tempting to move USD, metals or core holdings into alts to try to hit the lotto, but I don't want to water things down just yet. My goal is still hitting BTC and ETH numbers first before I loosen up to play the field.
In hindsight, if I had bet huge on Steem, I'd have been crushed to be stuck staked during a takeover, my crypto hopes and dreams in the hands of hostiles. Instead I'd rather lock up my hardware wallet with the solid round numbers I've set to hold for the long term, and then buy another wallet to start selectively diversifying. With Steem or Hive, I can always earn it slowly back so it means more. I see it as manual mining. Slow and steady for the normal authors. Oh how good it would feel to make $20 or $30 on a post because the right people saw it or liked you... Just once in a while!!!!
Small caps alt coins are exciting, but they often akin to penny stocks or pink sheets. Many are empty shells, went defunct, or are ambitious/innovative groups trying to build something meaningful. It feels like too much gambling right now because they can explode in price if someone blows on them the right way, and then dump in a flash. That's not stable or desirable for me, and it relies on a lot of promises and roadmaps being fulfilled. We know how those go....
People also hype their project as the next coming of Jesus, but the reality is in the number of developers, users, and investor inflow. It's about growth and advancement. Steem didn't accomplish that. Will Hive be magically different because the ninja-mined stake is better managed now? Are Hive Twitter blasts and promos what we need, or do we simply need more apps to organically generate the buzz/demand? Less cheerleading. More tangible results.
I hope Hive flourishes, but I've seen what years of dev work has led to, and it's been a bit underwhelming. You can't blame STINC. We have so many talented devs who seemed to have gotten a bit too comfortable paying themselves in years past. It was nice to see them unite to protect their principles [or revenue stream]. I find it hard to expect different once the dust from the fork and new exchange listings settle. I hope that they've gotten their act together and will SUSTAIN this progress, not just get it to a stable point and start the farm system again.
Blue chips:
People knock Bitcoin and Ethereum, but I have the utmost confident in them. Numbers and growth don't lie. I didn't burn my boats completely with them, but close. I saved one or two life rafts just in case because these are unchartered and murky waters. If they all go to zero, I will be ok. It would've been a really fun and educational ride.
Everyone has the free choice to buy and hold what they choose, but people who mock these two behemoth options featuring leading global buy-in and development traction seem way too biased for my blood.
Live update. A free curb-side recycled book just sold for $105!
Coins will pump and dump. Manage the euphoria to get something out of it, perhaps some top tier coin, and not be played by it. Despite how great something sounds, I've learned that as a fact over the years. Most of the time, I've held tight because that's the admirable thing to do. If I'd sold without emotion, I'd be in such good shape right now, I'd be on cloud 9. In hindsight, anyone can see the macro patterns and make some reasonably conclusive decisions that will pay them back. The trick is seeing them and acting on them. If you're wrong, patience pays, and you can recover.
I'd recently powered down some Hive to be flexible if there was a pump, to try to make a solid trade to add slivers to my core positions. My emotional attachment sadly broke after seeing how DPOS broke down, and how some "democratically voted in" people on both sides carried themselves/treated each other. Furthermore, I can't stand the voting disparity larger stakeholders slosh around with a small group of preferred individuals. Spread the love to reward adoption and retention for those who've been here trying for years, or those who are brand new -- yet don't fit the cookie cutter template you prefer to see!! The lack thereof eventually breaks people down, i.e., it finally did for me. I could've promoted Hive everywhere in my city and been very enthusiastic about it knowing that people were behind me. It's hard to do that then the community generally overlooks you, despite being more than adequately "followed."
Practice what you preach... I sold...
I would've loved to keep my powered down Hive on the back burner, but +55% yesterday seemed like a smart opportunity to grab. I assumed it'd run up a little more, but didn't expect it more than double since. It happens. A win is a win. Regardless, I won't be upset for trying to make a solid move to capitalize on a spiked price when it helped towards my other goals.
While not optimized, my victory was that I executed my game plan for a win and accepted the results. You can't always project China to get their fingers stuck on the buy button like that, and not many Hive holders have places to sell any liquid holdings, so it's a perfect storm.
For me, I can always earn it back by having fun blogging about recycling, baseball, and music, even if I have to claw far more than many of those who get premium rewards for virtually anything they post. When alts are a fraction of your holdings, you can enjoy them without financial worry and see pretty clearly.
For those who are liquid now, don't be afraid to consider what's best for YOU, not what you think others will approve of. “Indecision is the thief of opportunity” - Jim Rohn.
A bit of advice:
Treat tokens like poker chips. They merely represent the value we or the market currently places on them. No profit is realized until you sell. No $ amount is a $ until it's converted into such.
To those that struggle with this, investor bias can lead to a big payday, a huge bag, or regret. Everyone has a risk-reward balance they're comfortable with, but please don't completely ignore where the money, development and adoption is consistently flowing, especially during an economic crisis.
Wow, this post was all over, but I tried.
Matt
(personal opinion)
All I'm looking at is the bitcoin's 100k mark. The rest are noise to me as of the moment.
It's funny how a pump like this tests your reserve eh?!?
Certainly tested mine - with 8K liquid I sold 3K and then Powered Up 5K, right at the top of that pump around $0.43 (well it might not be the top of course, who knows), but I didn't like selling at all, I'd rather have lots of Hive.
But I'm glad I'm a bit more diversified, those sells were a massive help in reaching me meet my BTC targets.
My overwhelming emotion is one of missing out at buying in another 10K or so down at the 1300s, I've got all of limits set around 12s and lower.
I have a feeling it'll go back down there before this 13 week PD period is over. When it does start going down I'll probably crack and buy back in gradually at prices higher than 1200.
Overall, I'd rather just not look at the price, but that's A LOT easier said than done!
My crypto portfolio is now higher than it's ever been, mainly thanks to this Hive pump!
I still think it'll crash, hard, very soon.
I will love to capitalize on this HIVE pump as well. But most of my HIVE are in HIVE power. I think the pump will fizzle off once within the next few days and I probably won't have time to power down.
I shipped 1,682 Hive yesterday at around $0.183 and felt happy. It dipped right after so I thought I did good for once. I'd been holding that Hive for a few weeks and executed my plan. To think that it bounced up and ran to .095 BTC or 3.5 ETH is a bit unreal, but oh well. It was Murphy's Law that the pump ran as hard as it did, with massive volume from China (if it's real). I guess my post came from the angle of having liquid Hive to act on, but for those who are all staked, that's the nature of things -- and something I'm all too familiar with in not powering down at all ever until the Steemit buyout.
For me, I sold all my liquid stake post-fork and did not buy back any HIVE during the dump. Since then, I have been rebalancing and aiming to get 20% of liquid HIVE but still maintain a 10k HIVE power as I do enjoy the curation rewards. Given this pump, I think I will do a full power down in my next round and see if my first week's unlock can still catch the train 😅
Hey hey!
Lots in here. Personally I don't trade crypto because I'm just horrible at it. I buy when I can, but I haven't sold any yet. In truth I don't want to convert any of this back to fiat, I want to buy things with it as it is... a superior, quicker and often deflationary global currency. It really irks me that any wealth previous generations spent their lives gathering basically disappears... obviously most families expand outwards, so any wealth gets shared out... but if all the previous generations spent all their lives working and saving, how is there literally nothing to show for it... hopefully in a crypto-world intergenerational wealth becomes a thing again.
Well done on the upcycled book!
That's a refreshing way to look at it. Have you been training upside down again??? Great thoughts there about the intergen-wealth. I've actually thought of that informally from time to time for passing crypto to my nephews if I don't have the fortune of having kids myself. It'd be protected and so easy to do. I don't like paperwork or wills/shared funds.
If you did think of this without training upside down, let me know what happens when you do flip it around. Probably more clever philosophy.
Grounded, objective, and practical. Very sound advice.
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis.
This was supposed to be a quick community service message, and then the train just went off the tracks. Glad you made it through awake. Thank you, Sir. Glad it made sense.
@tipu curate
Upvoted 👌 (Mana: 21/28)