Gentlemen: I have news
Years back I was a bit naïve in thinking that hedge fund managers, bankers, and CEOs were reasonable adults who don't take risks like the rest of us crypto degens. I thought that institutions entering the crypto arena might actually chill out the space a bit. Lower highs and higher lows, creating a little bit more stability for the realm. If enough users buy low and sell high in theory we could create the mythical "super-cycle" where the price basically just goes up slowly over time.
Boy was I wrong
First of all, day traders don't want stability. That's the very last thing they want. Doesn't matter what direction the price is going they can bet on it with leverage to make a quick buck in any situation. If they smell blood in the water they are going to strike, and they have the liquidity to hit hard and bust up stops in their way.
And while it is true that traditional investors (that don't do a lot of trading) would like number to go up slowly over time... the value of that type of utility becomes a paradox. Because if you know that an asset isn't going to dip even 1% well then you can x100 long it risk free knowing full well you won't get margin called. Moves like that aren't conducive to low volatility assets.
Career Wall Street guys are lunatics.
I guess I should have known this from watching movies like Wolf of Wall Street. When you can drink whiskey on the job and have strippers on the trading floor you know these guys are "living their best life". High risk behavior begets high risk behavior. Volatility begets volatility. And this isn't just a sensationalist thing they show on the big screen. This type of degeneracy is confirmed time and time again by people who have actually lived it and in dryer more documentary-style renditions like The Big Short which portrays how this type of unsustainable overleverage led to the 2008 housing crisis. These are the people coming to crypto this cycle.
Most notably I've been going into random spaces lately of the Bitcoiners that have deeper links to tradfi; the guys who have actually worked for the industry. They've been reminding me that yes, finance bros are way worse than anything we've seen thus far. At least with crypto you have the grassroots guys who believe in crypto as a freedom tool or the users who "came for the money and stayed for the community".
Meanwhile, finance bros only care about one thing, and that's making money. They don't care what it takes to get there or who's going to get trampled along the way. This is pure unadulterated greed, and it's coming to a blockchain near you. The gambling floor is just about to be opened up to some of the most ruthless and cutthroat capital there is.
They're going to fumble the bag just like everyone else
The interesting thing about crypto is that even though it can be similar to stocks there are significant key differences. These similarities give no-coiners a false sense of security as to how the market works. As many of us who have been around for a couple cycles know: looking at a chart and living a chart a two completely different things.
For example, remember in 2023 how I had to keep constantly reminding everyone that the bear market was already over? This lasted like the entire year. The entire year of 2023 was only up. Anyone can see on the chart that the entire year of 2023 was only up, and yet every single person on social media is talking about how bad the bear market is and how down bad they are. The chart quite simply does not reflect this.
This time is different
No matter how obvious the four year cycle makes itself the hype has a way of turning everyone into a delusional crazy person. Again, a newbie can read about these things and they can see it on the chart, but they quite simply have not lived it. They do not know what it's like to live the history of these blockchains. It's NOTHING like a stock. There isn't a Facebook community group of shareholders that gets together every year in a different country to bond over the network and the asset. In fact most people that use Facebook don't even have stock in Facebook. Completely different animals. A person holding Amazon stonk isn't posting memes on social media that say things like, "laser eyes until fiat dies" and "gm".
It's pretty clear there's a deep communal aspect of crypto that goes completely unnoticed to outsiders like Wall Street. Anyone that was actively paying attention to crypto Twitter could see UST collapsing in real time. "Steady lads, deploying more capital." Same with the FTX collapse. Anyone following Binance or CZ had an opportunity to withdraw from FTX right before it exploded into a million pieces. Are the finance bros going to be able to tap into these communities right from the start and hit the ground running? Somehow I doubt that. This isn't a fake it till you make it type of experience.
Conclusion
The biggest degenerates in financial history are being welcomed into the shitcoin casino with open arms. Surely we'll have to open the floodgates in 2025 as an endless amount of liquidity pours into the arena. Of course that same liquidity is more akin to toxic sludge than actual drinkable water, so I guess we'll see how good the crypto filtration system really is.
There's really no need to celebrate or lament any of this, as this was always exactly how it was going to play out. Mainstream adoption wasn't going to happen any other way. Of course Wall Street wants to wet their beak on this action. That's what they do; this is their job; they are professional degenerates. Luckily we've still got a home field advantage on this one.
I long told you so, which you've probably forgotten by now. I didn't say it as near as intelligently or humorously as you just did, if I had, you'd probably paid attention. I hate to say it but it's hard for me to believe you guys will have any home field advantage either. Just for a comparison, how many of those dozens of "terrorist leaders" figured they had a home field advantage, it's a whole new world spanky, describing them as degenerates doesn't even begin to describe them.
So you've never heard of Vietnam or Afghanistan?
On a fundamental level comparing the tools of the military industrial complex to the tools of Wall Street is reaching at best. We are over here printing money and all they can do is buy it and manipulate it. Their main source of income is fucking over their own clients, and we are not their clients nor ever will be.
But yeah I've definitely given up thinking these people are responsible adults who will become an important part of the ecosystem. The infinite greed will continue.
Sorry I guess I should have mentioned my unintellectual truth of the matter stated prior I was talking about, it was pretty simplistic, and in relation to the comment that there is no way they can take down a blockchain, if they take one person out, someone else will step in and keep it afloat. My comment back to that was the blockchains survival is only as good as the men willing to go to prison over it. How that relates to the terrorist point, was, we are beyond going to jail now, we are obviously gone to a point of just being obliviated from the face of the earth. A nowhere to hide scenario.
My calculation on wall street and military industrial complex intermix is already been established. It could be quite clearly seen in Russia's assertions that the US has tried to use the release of bird flu to decimate part of their economy a couple years ago. Who knows, maybe that's how bird flu really started, it's hard to imagine they would go there, but they did manufacture a virus and released it upon the global populace. In a indirect way, they can influence the behaviors of corporations, and not just by Blackrock threatening to take their proxy votes away. Not all corporations are inline with all political agenda's, obviously, but they can involuntarily be brought into the fold. If they move toward a more authoritarian, or tyrannical governing approach, they would, theatrically, have to also move against the powerbrokers who'd back people's opposition. As Obama said on a couple of different occasions, fear shapes peoples emotions, and also stated once on the persistence of fear being used as a governing emotion. Trump, when asked in an interview what is real power, Trump replied, "real power, and I don't even want to use the word, but real power is fear." I think Bush also had his own line when it came to fear, but fear can also shape markets, or the threats thereof.
Right well your points make a lot more sense when they revolve around the military industrial complex. No need to muddy the waters by talking about Wall Street at all. It will be interesting to see how far this will escalate, as you could have just as easily applied all this logic to torrenting and pirating IP back in the day and obviously would have ended up mostly wrong. Back in those days people were saying the same shit: oh they are going to put EVERYONE INTO PRISON. They didn't. They didn't even jail 0.01% of the violators.
Crypto is higher stakes
There's more risk and more reward on both sides. The prison industrial complex can only crack down so hard before they start stepping on the toes of the rich people that control the system. You largely don't seem to respect the nuance here and instead opt to go full nuclear and expect the absolute worst possible outcome, which is never how things actually work out in the end.
So what happened to Pirate Bay?
It's still around and people use it and nobody gives a shit.
Pretty decent chance the same thing happens to crypto assets.
You have more insight than me, probably why I walk the nuclear edge, lol.
looking at a chart and living a chart a two completely different things, Way too different things I must admit. When seeing how ripple hit green candles unnoticed last year it shows how distracted we can be. Wall street is here, it's going to be a cash infusion for blood baths.
It'd be kinda cool to have Wall Street provide my exit liquidity. I'm sure I'll screw it up somehow though.
We'll have to see how 2025 plays out.
And actually more importantly 2026 needs to be a bear market for it to truly work out.
If 2026 is a bull market continuation it's going to really mess with people's heads.
This is why we need to maintain BALANCED positions at the perceived top.
Such as 33% BTC 33% USD 33% alts.
When's the last time your portfolio had a spread like that?
I can tell you with 100% certainty that I've never been able to accomplish such a thing.
My mind can't conceive of a bull lasting well into 2026, but anything is possible.
Yeah you say that but what if the legacy economy picks up in 2026 for whatever reason?
What if the Blackrock options market starts getting crazy amounts of adoption?
What if BTC is above $200k and the market cap is greater than every corporation in the world?
What happens when MSTR gets their S&P 500 listing and they keep taking out more debt to buy BTC at any price?
IMO max pain this cycle is that everyone's price targets get hit and everyone is selling but number keeps going up.
Professional Degens instead of just crypto degens, coming to a crypto near you!
You have an entertaining writing style. Lezz go
He's great at it. Half the time I have no idea what he's talking about, I come mostly for his humorous writing style.
It would be nice to catch some random meme on the way up for once. I wonder there will be any kind of pattern to what they throw their money at. I have a sad feeling it is mostly going to be the meme tokens.
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