Your last point is missing the point.
When the rules change to burning the value of the down-vote
If there was something to be gained financially, we will see down votes decrease.
But if i am wrong it will stay the same.
It will be much better to stop speculating and just dig up the historical data regarding down-votes. I think we will find correlations between when Reward Pool Mining started and changes in the and the amount of down-votes.
Do you think that looking at the data is a bad idea?
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