You need to be very careful how you quantify success. Before prohibition there were plenty of drunken incidents, fights and even murders on licensed premises. After prohibition was enacted there were no drunken incidents, fights or murders on licensed premises. If that's all you're looking at, it's going to look like a win.
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That's a solid analogy, but hopefully no one narrows the data points that much. I think in both cases you could look at total hospital visits for the population to see what effect prohibition/vaccination has. Downtick in barfights sure... uptick in private party fights, ah okay.