"So When Is Bitcoin Going Back Up?"
that's what people ask me a lot lately.. as If its some levitating eagle being held down by godawful FUD just before being let free to soar directly up to the moon without pause..
It does make you start to wonder what kind of intrinsic value your product has if you live day to day terrified that someone else is going to accidentally spook the whole crowd down to $0
so here we are nearly the 8th of Feb 2018, BTC at £6000 - $8200k (again) after the first bounce in a little while.
I've been saying for nearly 6 months that bitcoin only really had strong continual support at around £2000 (gbp) it was that price for ages (in terms of bitcoin) everything that happened since 2kGBP seems bubbly to me... but because of the elapsed time since that point (and assuming a continuation of network effect growth) I might expect £2-3k as a baseline but not much more.
Of course to understand the price, one needs to look deeper at the underlying technology, and I hardly ever find anyone who is willing to do this..but it's when doing this.. that bitcoin will blow your mind. When I got interested in Bitcoin over 3 years ago the idea of making a lot of money wasn't the first thing I really I cared about, a few friends and I bought because we saw shops, online merchants, and literally every side of the network miners/users/developers so excited by the symbiotic peer to peer simplicity of trading that we actually believed there was a chance of true financial freedom and sovereignty for all regardless of social standing etc etc..
what we noticed was that 2015 was amazing.. wow the ATMs popping up left right and center.. this is happening... the shops taking btc.. then 2016 onwards that all just kind of fizzled out didn't it? and 2017? there are no ATMs in my nearest city now, what happened to them.. seriously?
the primary use case 'peer to peer electronic cash' (for those that never read the white paper) starting to disappear so early should be the canary in the coal mine, right? If the primary use case has become secondary to a 'store of value' then I find it quite ridiculous. Did you know that the Blockstream guys etc are actually saying that? "Value first... work out usage later" - some of these guys even claim to have economic/financial qualifications, it would be funny if it wasn't sad.
I've watched hours of their videos and if you do it with an open mind you will eventually see through the curtain.. oh and also all these people who are now telling you to look back at the past performance of bitcoin over the years, they tell you: "its done this before"... really? has it?
Well actually no... it really hasn't... that Bitcoin that newbies now look back to through rosy spectacles now does not exist. period.
Rather, a new plethora of Bitcoins exist in its place. It lives on in 3-4 (more I think now) separated forks with duplicated transaction histories as well as source codes which have then each been modified to allow different software consensus rules. The old Bitcoin always bounced back.. (dare I venture to suggest because it had a fantastic value proposition.. and a practical use case.. which got people like Andreus and Roger SO excited about it that thay were hospitalised from sleep-deprived fascination, they would then go on to make full medical recoveries and spend the next years of their life finding fulfilment in communicating what they realised) .. I loved that Bitcoin.. that Bitcoin was one of my big hopes for humanity.... simple... elegent.. bare bones... genius... made you sometimes a little scared with how genius it was... gave you hope for the future of a free-'er' world.
There is one version of Bitcoin with consensus rules that does live on very closely to Satoshi's Bitcoin, I'm not going to say any more here 'cause it's highly contentious and all our posts on this get deleted and we are sick of it... that's part of the reason I've decided to hash my thoughts and fears into the Steemit Blockchain for good
Don't get me started on Segregated Witness.. actually.. please do.
I hear so many new people in the last week and a bit asking 'when' the price will go up from here; but, Isn't that the wrong question?
I'd love to hear your thoughts on 'why' you think the price will go up from here? (if you do of course ;)
please comment in the comment box below, I love hearing your thoughts and I find Steemians have a unique perspective on this.. I'm asking because I want to continue my path of knowledge; not because I want to hammer home my point of view.. I just feel that all you guys, traders, devs, enthusiasts, newcomers, miners can possibly add so much to my viewpoint and I really want to tap into your expertise here.
please feel free to comment and get a discussion started, I'd love to hear any thoughts on whether you agree or disagree with the points I raise.
don't get 'rekt' over-trading #loveAlts #SatoshiWeNeedYouNow
those of us that go forward with our crypto tokens.. just as an aside.,.. I second a different approach that I cannot take credit for, I saw a very prominent crypto/cypherpunk leader explaining it recently in his youtube videos and it makes total sense.. 'Spend and Replace' makes much more sense that HODLing.. we need to spend and USE our crypto of choice.. you should continually use whatever blockchain you claim to believe in daily, and use and encourage others to use it to its limits to test that scaling protocols are working. Your encouragement of others using it should be based on the fact that it is better than cash, better than Debit/Credit cards, and if you are not behind an alt currency that offers this then I question your motives for talking to me.
There are projects out there that offer the kind of utopian usability I am mentioning now, It is just that the scaling debate has just put us back to 2012.
It's just my opinion, but I think the recent drop in BTC-fees is directly caused by HODLing.
I don't use a segwit wallet and my BTC transactions are very cheap, a few months ago the fee bids I use now would probably not go through for a good few days (if at all); so unless there was an upgrade to the network that benefitted non-segwit wallets also then I think the miners are just taking whatever they can now. Massively open to being proved wrong on this though.
I look forward to your dissent.
-Ant
Hopefully it is over now.. Not that I care much about bitcoin price, but it takes all the market down with it.
we will not see another dip below $6000.00 US ever again, wave goodbye and send gifts.
@captboatface you've been right with this prediction actually!
yup!
Thanks for your input captboatface, a bold position! I like it!! :) do you really think never again? I do hope you are right for all of crypto's sake) but I think the chance of a continual steady rise from 6k onwards or even a direct moonshot from here is quite low. would you not agree?
Steady growth from here is preferable. There will be no moonshot this year but we will see aths such as 30,40, or even 50k . Lots of rumor that this year is one of BTC last as a #1 coin. Huge potentials out there right now with ven, trx, nano, neo, eos, iota, and even qtm. This year will be big for eth. As well as a few erc20 token. Dont forget xlm, link, and neo
I think you are right capt. I'm surprised how steady bitcoin is now. Higher lows every single day. We might not ever see below $7,000 again or below $8,000. Perhaps we will break below $8500 again though.
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Definitely think it's broken out of its bottom. Can't wait for it too moon after it stabilises and regains popularity.
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Long story:
Crypto / BTC prices have fallen from their December rates due to:
1 - Bitconnect pyramid collapsed;
2 - Japanese exchange Coincheck was hacked few days ago, for a total of 530 million USD missing;
3 - Tether (USDT) token appears to be a pyramid that “printed” (or should I say, minted) a few hundred millions Tethers to cause a surge in the need more Bitcoin to be bought (because Tether needs to have a constant price of 1 USD, 1 USDT = 1 USD) and more Tether to be bought with these Bitcoins. In the end this leads to Bitcoin price increase. It is said that the exchange Bitfinex is behind all of this. Bitfinex created USDT (Tether).
EDIT 31st of January: 4 - According to an article from this morning on The Telegraph, Coincheck hackers are moving the stolen coins to the exchanges and are trying to sell them:
Coincheck hackers trying to move stolen cryptocurrency after major Japanese heist
I highly suggest you to read the Medium articles on the Tether topic by the guy who brought the whole scheme to light.
great comment, thanks @maestrobarn, I'll check out those Medium posts!
regarding Bitconnect and Coincheck, yes I agree these are the two big 'FUD' (with good reason may I add) events that surely is responsible for a lot of 'buyers remorse' that we see new buyers selling early.
Dwarfing both of these, the Elephant in every crypto-traders front room is the conclusion-less story of Tether which is still trading massive volumes despite apparently legitimate long-term liquidity concerns. Am I reading the situation correctly in that thats what you are somewhat saying?
If it is, I agree.. and I don't think we've seen the end of the Bitcoin/cryptocurrency story
Determining value in a limiting/controlled environment is a supply-demand function predicated on the need/usefulness of the product or service. That is why some governments and now companies like Facebook are creating various methodologies to divert/minimize/stop the use of cryptos. Everyone should have seen this coming and it will intensify as the central banksters and multinationals formulate and implement additional methods of minimizing participation. You all know cryptos are a direct compeditor to fiat currencies and stock markets. I am not insinuation this is a bad thing, quite the contrary. I personally like the idea of cryptos as a competitor to the printing presses of fiat currencies and fractional lending.
My point here is value. How do you determine and thus increase value other then by increasing demand? Demand is limited to those who really need the cryptos to conduct commerce and trade. Investment is purely a function of trying to determine the social need. Investment for the reason of just return on investment creates a false sense of need in the market.
I was a real estate appraiser for some 20 years and now a realtor. It is why I am probably so fixated on evaluation price and value. The recent run-up in the prices of cryptos reminded me of the irrational exuberance of the middle 2000s in real estate. It is impossible in my opinion unless the need for the product is somehow stimulated and the pushback from fiat competitors is thawarted for anyone to know if the price will rise or fall. Flip a bitcoin and pray.
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I will not upvote you First of all in cryptocurrency we don't have correction, Yo need to stop Promoting that shit, Correction just tell me, how is cryptocurrency correcting his self, how are you telling people this, this the reason why articles like this, that is not the terms you need to search the term correction, and when you research you need to make a good post
Hi Cryptosteven, thanks for your comment; by 'correction' I just meant that the price has not crashed.
I think many of us in Crypto see the developments and news about Bitcoin etc through the 'lens' of the Fiat pairing Price. My understanding of 'correction' is "a reverse movement, usually negative, of at least 10% in a stock, bond, commodity or index to adjust for an overvaluation." but what I meant mostly was that It's not a 'crash' as the mainstream are still calling it.
Now, firstly.. let me say that personally I dont see Bitcoin/Altcoins etc as PRIMARILY an Investment, no-one talked like this in the early days, back then the drive was to communicate how much MORE EFFICIENT (cost efficient, secure etc) it was to use Bitcoin, and after you did that usually a few people who you spoke to would decide that they agree and this was where a lot of people were starting to USE bitcoin in 2013-2015 in day to day commerce (now theres an idea right! ;) ) this really helped to continue Bitcoins 'Network Growth' effect.
To a certain extent, not a lot of this intrinsic usefulness of crypto matters now because people mostly buy because the price is/was going up. It doesn't help that Youtubers all smash round videos every week like "Top 10 alts to invest in for March/April 2018". (nothing against Youtubers by the way.. I'm subscribed to most of those guys and their content is great... just making the point) It's just that I'm aware of who's been coming into crypto lately so I'm using a term from the Investment world as a launching pad to discuss the REASONS BEHIND the price having recently experienced a decline - and seeing what people think if they agree etc.
this book is for beginners in cryptocurrency, it taught me how to trade.
https://www.amazon.com/Why-left-Corporate-Work-Home-ebook/dp/B079T8B2PR/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1518605411&sr=1-1&keywords=why+I+left+my+corporate+job&dpID=518krs0trqL&preST=SY445_QL70&dpSrc=srch
We should start spending our coins, buying butcoins as an investment means you will HODL untill you make profit. That causes a pump and dump, which as consequence makes less people willing to use BTC as a trading currency for goods.
totally agree
It let's my whole body feel a lot healthier, when I today looked into my portfolio and I finally saw some green numbers shining through.
But what's even better that I bought some LTC yesterday at $154/€125... any1 sharing the same good feelings? :D
Great post! I sort of agree, and hey, if you want to keep track of whether or not the bubble will burst by tracking your portfolio and news in the same place check out the easiest to use crypto portfolio tracker - https://hubwallet.io
thanks a lot dailyxkcd! :)