Hello fellow Steemians,
In a normal (U.S. economy) situation I would say the current drums of war are bluffs by the Trump administration and the Pyongyang totalitarian regime. However, we are far from a normal situation, the U.S economy has stagnated and its overdue for a recession after 9 years of a phony recovery fueled by quantitative easing (AKA money printing by the FED). So far, Trump’s efforts to “drain the swamp” and repeal Obamacare have pretty much stalled. At some point something’s got to give and someone’s going to have to bear the blame…
These are the reasons I believe war may happen this time:
- The U.S Stock market can’t remain bullish any longer propped up by easy money and bookkeeping tricks, chickens are due back to roost. A diversion to the current situation is badly needed. These diversionary wars are common in history.
Despite all its apparent brawn and bluffing, North Korea is a very weak adversary to the U.S. military. Their military equipment is antiquated, their officers corrupt and not so willing to die for their leader as they were back in the 80’s. Yes, they could land a few artillery rounds in Seoul, South Korea, but the damages and loss of life would not be as serious as most people think. I’ve recently been to the city and every few meters there are subway stations where people can rapidly shelter, they practice this all the time. Material damages would be quickly repaired considering South Korea’s wealth.
North Korea's nuclear capabilities are still very primitive and unreliable, they would likely be intercepted or wouldn't even work in the first place. Plus, they can't really use them because that would mean a complete annihilation of the regime. Kim Jong Un is not as fanatical as his father. He would try to maintain at least a bit of room to negotiate an honorable outcome that keeps him in a position of power. He could get that with conventional war skirmishes along the border, there's no need to go nuclear, enrage the entire world and guarantee the utter destruction of the Kim dynasty.
China has stated they will remain neutral should North Korea attack first. All the U.S. needs at this point is a false flag attack from North Korea. This would be easy to manufacture and feed to the mainstream media or North Korea could even be forced to act first. Source: China neutral if North Korea strikes U.S.: state-run newspaper editorial
Despite what most people think, Trump has non-nuclear options on the table. This is the "fire and fury." he is referring to. Nuclear Weapon technologies are from the 1950’s, a lot of advances have been made in secret military labs ever since... This may be a chance to show off these advances to the world without backlash from the international community for using nuclear weapons.
RODS FROM GOD AKA KINETIC BOMBARDMENT IN ACTION (FICTIONAL)
Donald Trump's warning to North Korea. Notice he is talking about a weapon that produces "Fire and Fury like the world has never seen".
- Japan's Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga has expressed they welcome a strong US response. These are his words "As the security situation in the region becomes increasingly difficult, the US's deterrence capability is extremely important to Japan. The US has said all options are on the table and Japan welcomes this"
Gold and Crypto will soar to the stratosphere. They are both considered safe heaven assets and limited in supply, especially crypto. If there’s war, global recession and a sharp increase in fiat inflation due to Keynesian pumping of the economy we can expect safe heaven prices to increase spectacularly.
Tell me what you think of this post in the comments below.
Do you have a different opinion? Please share it below. I would love to be proven wrong and discuss about it. That way we all gain mighty knowledge :) There’s no censoring here at Steemit my friends!
Extra information:
Kinetic bombardment (Source Wikipedia)
A kinetic bombardment or a kinetic orbital strike is the hypothetical act of attacking a planetary surface with an inert projectile, where the destructive force comes from the kinetic energy of the projectile impacting at very high velocities. The concept originated during the Cold War.
The typical depiction of the tactic is of a satellite containing a magazine of tungsten rods and a directional thrust system. When a strike is ordered, the satellite would brake[1] one of the rods out of its orbit and into a suborbital trajectory that intersects the target. As the rod approaches periapsis and the target due to gravity, it picks up immense speed until it begins decelerating in the atmosphere and reaches terminal velocity shortly before impact. The rods would typically be shaped to minimize air resistance and maximize terminal velocity. In science fiction, the weapon is often depicted as being launched from a spaceship, instead of a satellite.
Kinetic bombardment has the advantage of being able to deliver projectiles from a very high angle at a very high speed, making them extremely difficult to defend against. In addition, projectiles would not require explosive warheads, and—in the simplest designs—would consist entirely of solid metal rods, giving rise to the common nickname "Rods from God".[2] Disadvantages include the technical difficulties of ensuring accuracy and the prohibitively high costs of positioning ammunition in orbit.
The Outer Space Treaty is designed to prohibit weapons of mass destruction in orbit or outer space; however, its text only prohibits nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Since the most common form of kinetic ammunition is inert tungsten rods, in most cases, kinetic bombardment is not prohibited by the treaty.
Diversionary war (Source Wikipedia)
A diversionary foreign policy, or a diversionary war, is an International Relations term that identifies a war instigated by a country's leader in order to distract its population from their own domestic strife. The concept stems from the Diversionary War Theory, which states that leaders who are threatened by domestic turmoil occasionally initiate an international conflict in order to shift the nation's attention away from internal troubles. As a result, this external threat would counter the domestic strife and ensure the leader's position in power. Essentially, a diversionary use of force is a manipulation of the Rally Round the Flag Syndrome effect, causing an increase of national fervor from the general public.
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Happy Steeming!
It sure does seem inevitable with the US putting the squeeze on Chinese banks to stop helping North Korea wold wide financial access, interesting times we a living in.
I hope that there will be no war as a person living in S. Korea.
Good article! Maybe Korea isn't a threat, but it's a good pretext for war and good distraction from middle east. Elites need war to keep this sick system alive... but now is different. We have decentralized information, systems, money. We can choose not support this sick system, just by transfer wealth to another, equal for everyone system, based on blockchain.
anything thing can happen in this new world
Thanks for this great insight. A lot of changes soon..
Nice picture in bast post
I hate thinking in terms of how "good" war will be for my portfolio, but it looks like that is the situation at hand. Makes me wonder about those who actually have the power to influence and create such situations.
I'd give up all my portfolio if that meant we could avert wars. War is terrible and mostly kills and starves the innocent.
We're truly living in a new world.
Yes we are, history actually repeats itself but with different flavors each time
Good article... I hope that there will be no war. Because i hate War .
Really enjoyed this post, I have to agree that North Korea would not use nuclear weapons or even attack, they would lose and if a nuclear attack happened and we retaliated the entire country would be engulfed in flames. That would have to be the dumbest thing for a dictator to do. But then again dictators do get crazy power hungry and do really weird things because of that power.
I just don't understand why other countries can't band together against such clear hostile intentions it always seems like the US goes into battles alone instead of having backing support from others. Heck if we didn't save those countries in world war two their would be no Europe as we know it today yet they all just sit back and don't do shit it floors me.
Wars are really a killer to economy and stock exchanges
My friend good morning, great video
happy steeming
I too see war is inevitable but honestly didn't put any thought to the value of cryptocurrency climbing.
I hope we are all wrong. Thanks for commenting
I hope so too, honestly I do.
I can't believe... they cannot be so stupid, or they can? They craving for war...
If you can't understand real reasons: follow the money... they say, but i can't see.
What will be more valuable after nuclear war? Gold or Crypto? :)
Depends on the extent of the war, if it's small and localized, Crypto, since the Internet was invented to survive precisely this and would continue to function everywhere else. if it's big (nuclear winter wide) Gold would probably be more valuable but would only keep you alive for a few more months, you'll still starve anyways eventually. Guns would be a better choice actually.
Yes, guns and gold. Even if internet will survive, anybody would be interested in exchange food for crypto. Farmers even in good times do not take bitcoin, even tesco in developed country is not taking it now in time of reasonable peace.
The destruction of Japan and South Korea wouldn't be good for the world (or US economy). That is why there hasn't been action against North Korea over the previous 65 Years. Then again the current pres does like to break norms.
I agree. The destruction to Seoul in particular would be more than described in the post. North Korea has hundreds of artillery positions built into the mountains just north of Seoul. In the event of a conflict Seoul would get pounded hard, there is no avoiding that.
I've heard the same and additionally that their mid range missiles would be able to bring widespread destruction to Japan including possible nuclear missile strikes. Likely hundreds of thousands of our (U.S.) allies would die within the first few hours of an attack.
A great worry to Mr. Trump. Great video.
It is sad to admit that wars are generated for economic reasons at the expense of human lives. Thanks for the analysis.
I would dare to say that all wars, when you get to the bottom of it, start because of economic reasons. Hopefully someday, crypto will end all wars or, at least, make them difficult to fund unless really necessary.
Bitcoin (cryptos in general) are the new gold (by that I mean most exchangable form of money). If a N Korean wants to move from N Korea, their best bet is to trade their money into Bitcoin so that it stores its value to whichever country they flee to without worrying about the exchange to the new currency.
Crypto is going to keep rising. Bitcoin hit $4,500 today
there's no need to go nuclear, enrage the entire world and guarantee the utter destruction of the Kim dynasty.
that's good,,,,
goood
really good post
Nice one..