Bitcoin broke below critical support in the upper $13,000s this morning ($13,500 - $13,800) and is now sitting around $13k at the time of writing this. Bitcoin has consolidated around these levels for the majority of the past week and has found significant support there.
Last time we broke below this level, Bitcoin bounced back at the lower $13,000s. This time, Bitcoin broke below $13k. As a result of this, I suspect the upper $13k levels will now act as substantial resistance which will be difficult to push past. Given these factors, I suspect it is more likely Bitcoin continues to the downside rather than upside in the short-term.
I forgot to mention in the video, but I will NOT be selling any Bitcoin. I might end up buying more if we continue lower, although I won't at these current levels.
Furthermore, Ether has breached a critical resistance relative to Bitcoin at 5.5m Satoshi (0.055 BTC). I've stated for some time now that anywhere between 0.055 BTC to 0.06 BTC is a good area to shift some Ether into Bitcoin, with the next target being roughly 0.07 BTC. If Bitcoin tanks like it did before Christmas, I don't expect this ETH/BTC to remain as high as it currently is. However, it is worth noting that Ether is holding its own relative to Bitcoin at the time of writing this.
On the topic of Bitcoin dominance, we've fallen below 40% mostly as the result of the bull run in Ripple. Altcoins have, in general, outperformed Bitcoin in the past week. I continue to be bullish on Bitcoin relative to altcoins, even moreso during dips like these, so if you would like to keep your exposure to the market, I continue to prefer Bitcoin and selectiveness with altcoins (rather than a basket-type approach).
What are your thoughts on the Bitcoin dip? Opportunity or trap? For now, I vote trap. Let me know what you think in the comments below.
P.S: None of my thoughts have anything to do with headlines for South Korea.
You're the only youtuber that is talking reason in this insane market.
I began my cryptoasset journey in Aug, 2017. Thus, my opinions and perspective are likely that of an adolescent. The education in this area has been, as of recently, harsh and unforgiving. That being said, I have joined the HODler crowd and have weathered a few category 1-2 hurricanes in the past few months. Some were quite scary, like the BCash hostile takeover attempt (category 2 imo), and all of the FUD leading up to the non-issue of SegWit2x (potential for cat 4 but thankfully averted). The Bgold fork (tropical depression) was much milder in my opinion and I was happy to see that my pre-fork research was consistent with the actual post-fork result (ie nothing to worry about).
Despite those events being concerning, I could console myself because I could point to events or happenings that stood under, and were correlated with, the price action. Things could be rationalized by even a novice as myself.
Which brings me to the current situation of increased volatility and undiscernible price action. The market has become significantly more complex, and the devils that I am unaware of (being an investor newbie) have multiplied to the nth degree. I suspect these new players are surpassingly wealthy and influential, and their ability to control both the upside and downside of this relatively small market is simple child's play to them. Unclear to me what their overall intentions are. I suppose if they wished to kill this whole experiment (at the behest of their governmental/bureaucratic overlords) BTC would be dead or near dead already. Perhaps they are priming the market with low prices in preparation for a large bull run in 2018. That is my hope, of course, but its uncomfortable to be clinging to hope in the face of a potential category 5 nation-killer staring you in the face.
So, I feel like I am getting played. It's harder to make sense of what's going on and I suppose it will only get harder to rationalize from here.
This saddens my naive brain, thinking that we finally had a "free" market in cryptoassets where the laws of supply and demand rule the day. Of course, the whales have as much a right to be "free" with their money and influence, so I suppose the market IS truly free. And isn't this what I, as a libertarian, wanted in the first place: an unregulated space where great ideas and equally impressive technology can be backed by venture capitalists and Joe Six-packs alike with no preference or prejudice. Where the cream will rise to the top because of the virtue of the idea and not by the backroom dealings of the elite.
A different youtube crypto pundit recently posted an interesting article:
https://s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/john-pfeffer/An+Investor%27s+Take+on+Cryptoassets+v6.pdf
Given the endless philosophical debates concerning what BTC should be (store of wealth vs payment rail vs unit of account), the author makes a fairly convincing argument that the store of wealth characteristic of BTC is its strongest attribute from an investor's perspective. Additionally, he also astutely points out that having a strong payment method, although useful and welcomed, is merely added value on top of a more critical foundational store of value. He observes that, in our current milieu, there are MANY ways we transact daily. To quote the author directly:
"Now think about how many different payment rails you’ve used over the past month: physical cash (perhaps in multiple currencies), Visa, Amex, PayPal, direct debit, SWIFT, etc. They were all good and reasonably fit for purpose in slightly different ways and possessing slightly different features for the specific payment you were making: cash to tip the porter, Visa to pay on Amazon, Amex to buy a plane ticket and get the points, PayPal to pay on that dodgy website you don’t trust with your card number, direct debit to pay your utilities bill, SWIFT for an international transfer and so on."
Likely, the future crypto world will also be fragmented when it comes to payment methods. What is required is the underlying store of value, analogous to the role that fiat currency and, ultimately gold, fills today. Of course, of all the cryptoassets available today, BTC fills that role most robustly and reliably. It's simple use case is being fulfilled at the current time, albeit in a very stomach-churning fashion, but perhaps that is simply a function of time and change in mindset. Another appropriate quote from the author:
"We should pause here to think about how long the emergence of a cryptoasset as a dominant monetary store of value might take. On the one hand, gold’s been around for millennia, so the mental paradigm shift required might take longer than 10 years and never occur fully. On the other hand, we rode horses for transportation for millennia and moved on from that pretty quickly and categorically with the advent of the superior technology of the motorcar. That transition required a major buildout of physical infrastructure while the one that interests us here requires little more than a shift in mindset."
For those of us old enough to remember, when was the last time you saw or used a payphone?
I was encouraged by this article and highly encourage you to check it out in its entirety. The author delves into the different sectors within the cryptoasset realm (EVM, dApps, currency) and performs an erudite analysis, at least from my laymen's perspective. Please punch holes in this analysis and comment on any fallacies/assumptions that are incorrect or controversial; contrarian views are definitely welcomed.
I do like a well-written piece ;)
There's pundits on this very thread politely hinting a the demise of outdated bitcoin in the name of more efficient Ripple, and hey - it's so practical, you can directly use it from your bank - you know, the guys you always trusted with your money !
Just scroll, if you've been in the business you'll immediately recognize the approach.
So this is indeed what's going on, via several levels The explosion of crypto must be led into controllable channels before the chance is lost. Most people in this market aren't used to strategic thinking in a world of secret banking/intelligence services, so to speak, and will in doubt follow the simple explanation...
simple neurophysiology at work.
While I'm at it, have you looked at Stellar Lumens (XLM) as opposed to Ripple ?
It's a token that could be used by anyone who buys some and can convince people to use their services much like a Western Union booth, or yourself, to send around the globe in seconds, fully decentralized (as opposed to Ripple), can be integrated with external exchanges, you know the sort - like bitshares.org ? Or with Amazon, or Walmart, and it's at this time being used as a banking transaction system in the South Pacific, that IBM helped setting up... http://fortune.com/2017/10/16/ibm-blockchain-stellar/
Of course, the article says, this is expected to be only temporary, as the little and large nation-states will soon develop crypto "of their own", and so will of course the banks, won't they. Ripple, or SWIFTCoin...
So the question is, will the little people understanding that they have to invest where it benefits them ?
They seem to understand virtual money as opposed to paper as opposed to gold but can they ever understand that freedom is preferable to being comfortable ?
I don't think so, just watch what's going on in the streets.
So everything depends on marketing and market forces, and we're at this moment as on a darkling plain, watching the market forces at work, playing the people, who can't think of anything but short term gains.
I will visit your link in a second ;)
P.S.: what's a pay phone ?
@jojof, you sound like a crypto-anarchist. A very good crypto-anarchist!!! Great post.
Regards,
Rick
Me, an anarquista ? Nevar ! Just trying to not be insufficiently paranoid. Venceremos ;)
Hablas la verdad! But insufficiently paranoid sounds suspiciously like an oxymoron. Can one be insufficiently paranoid?
Regards,
Rick
Absolutely - humans are insufficiently paranoid by nature, they tend to prefer positive delusions to reality - it's a survival technique that favors herd animals through dreary periods, by keeping the suicide rates down and desperation at bay... however, it also causes ridiculous conflicts and unforeseeable (!) actions in better days. Everybody hates Cassandras for the very reason that they countermand the general, hard-wired "don't-worry-be-happy" outlook that is also furthered by religions and the media... no problem, you'll be rewarded in the afterlife, sheeple. There is no climate change, everything will be all right tomorrow, and so on. It leads us directly into destruction and a healthy amount of paranoia is an asset that can give you the decisive edge over your co-primates ;)
Nice thoughts on long term crypto land. As I told my mom...centralized crypto currencies will be a sign of the Apocalypse.
Not to nitpick but do remember that XRP is not meant to be used as currency. Not that your over-all message changes...just a large confusion even for what seem to be XRP investors.
Okay, XRP is not really centralized, and not meant to be a currency - just an exchange token. It's being controlled. In essence, we should be using something like dash ;)
Which I'm right now looking at, waiting for it to break out of the triangle. I'm also looking at Bitcoin again ;)
Dash has master nodes :D
LOL its a booth Clark Kent uses to change into Superman =)
I did check out XLM and definitely viewed it as a more "friendly" form of banking transfers vs XRP which I found unsavory and a naked attempt at banking to offer a product in this new asset class. I will admit that FOMO'd hard with the recent pump but the feelings passed and I am glad to not be a part of that train.
Great post. I can;t help but smile when reading it, only because we can all relate to the feelings you have as someone new to the market. Welcome :)
If you are truly team HODL, then I would suggest taking a break from looking at market trends and reading articles on the topic. I took a 1 year hiatus from looking at anything cryptocurrency related back in 2015 to help my nerves (I know a long time). Sometimes it is what's required though. Start small if you need to, maybe a month break, but try not to think too much about it if you plan on holding and not being liquid for trading.
Cheers
Awesome advice. If only I had the discipline to follow through. Will take a shower now and try not take my water-resistant phone with me...
Hi variable,
Sorry for the delay in the response. Thank you for the excellent piece. I plan to read it in full at some point here when I have more time, but for now going to address some of the comments you made in your comment. The market will always be manipulated as long as there is limited regulations and enforcements. Truly free markets aren't healthy - they are predatory. It's why we have 'limited' capitalism rather than full-on capitalism. For now, much of price action is dictated by a wealthy few.
I don't know how much stock I put into the "store of value" argument. As mentioned from your quote, gold is associated with being a store of value partially because it is ingrained in us from birth practically that gold is valuable. New technologies are adopted quickly because they have utility that improve our lives (e.g: horses to cars). It's difficult to convince the general populace that magical internet money is the new gold - especially when most of them weren't really looking for a new gold in the first place.
Not only that, but Bitcoin has dropped 80%+ several times throughout its history which I hardly call a store of value. While Bitcoin has been called digital gold for years, it seems that people call it such more frequently during times of 'bubbly' activity to justify valuation. Over the long-term, cryptocurrencies must be better and easier to use than the equivalent centralized option or it's just going to continue to be niche. Plain and simple. I tend to think the vocal minority makes it seem like privacy censorship resistance is important, but most people simply don't care enough to deal with additional inconveniences to achieve such goals. I mean, Facebook & Google are two of the largest companies in the world. Anyway, some quick initial thoughts to chew on for now.
You forgot China!
I'm going to guess downtrend for the rest of the year, and fresh start 2018 by turning things around and going bullish. Either way, if you're in it for the long haul, you will be fine. Happy New Years!
I just listened to another guy saying much the same, and he blamed it on the Futures.
I looked at the chart and I'm saying much the same (see below), in part for different reasons. I did a Fibonacci and it landed us at $9500 a week ago... so I'm waiting for Bitcoin to fall, blaming the situation mostly on the Ripple run (I took part in it five times, and I had difficulty cashing in my profits twice, so I'm out now - it was a very bad experience).
I've been waiting for Bitcoin to bottom out, and it's sure taking its time. People were talking 6000 and 8000 (Mike Novogratz refused to commit 500 million investment into BTC before Christmas, hinting at/hoping for 8000), while others were more conservative or even positive. Now we will have to think about the Ripple Rage, and if that stops... then we may rise and shine
But now, we're still going downwards and there's this possible Head-and-Shoulders scenario that I wanted to make you aware of, the Mac is pointing downwards... My philosophy is always to earn about 10% per week and more if that can be done without danger, and avoid losses of above 5% - if I miss out on a run, so be it... if I can't buy the absolute bottom, so be it. I guess i'll just wait this out for another day.
And on January 1-3, some fresh money should start rolling in - if Ripple dips (and it's showing signs), then it will happen earlier.
PS the green line is a trend line I drew from a low on November 03 to the recent low - it may be the support line that keeps us from finally going lower, dammit. Happy New Year !
Great analysis !!! have you noticed how the RS subdivide in another H&S ? If you go down in timeframe you can easily find 3 H&S with RS being also a H&S. About 10k$ should be a first bottom than can be broke to another 8k or even(worse case scenario) 6k$ bottom. Looking at the charts and trying to extrapolate how the price will fall put us to the 1-3 january ... Besides of that there is also maybe some people who want BTC go down to buy cheap before some big money get involved in it next month ... Some bankers/investors are very 'bearish' in saying that bitcoin is dangerous or a bad investment last week without good reason to do so especially now (Novogratz is obviously not one of them because he's just saying that the market is not good to launch his stuff and that's true).
There was a slightly smaller H+S before this one, too -directly after the big dip, but they don't always resolve it seems - instead, the price rose because of incredible volume...
I read an analysis today that went as low as $5500.
I think there's a play to replace Bitcoin with Ripple, but I have't the slightest idea how far such a conspiracy would realistically go - in theory, it would have started with the cancellation of Segwit2x, and the following BCH coup attempt. Then, once Bitcoin went for the latest correction, another attempt immediately followed and then they pumped Ripple, to make all the dumb money flow into that via sheer greed. If they manage to establish Ripple as the biggest coin, Bitcoin might become just an altcoin for the general public... and the banks have won a victory.
But all of that is a bit much, it would take some dedicated thinkers who can actually make it work, it's a bit like assuming that 911 was a planned Pearl Harbor Event created to enable the 'War On Terror,' so the Near East could be plausibly destabilized in the name of Save-the-Petrodollar humanism for a mix of Saudi, Israeli and NATO interests (which conveniently fit into the Wolfowitz Doctrine), and that Osama Bin Laden was merely a fall guy who could never have pulled this stunt alone. See what I mean - totally ridiculous, just a conspiracy theory ;)
It's not as if world power or big money would kill or cheat to reach their goals - they always act morally ! Knowing this, nobody in their right mind would even consider such thoughts...
Let's for the time being stay with the assumption they're only talking it down... like Novogratz, who's basically a straight shooter but would of course also like low prices.
But if Novogratz decides to NOT invest in Bitcoin any day soon, that's when I would start to reconsider...
In any case, I'm out of Ripple and into Stellar Lumens (XLM), though not with much at this time.
Wow, the replies section has become more interesting and informative than the post itself! Really great reading and thinking contributions here, totally unexpected.
I was thinking the same thing when I saw the sluggish volume around 13K. I got out and lost around 15%. Putting hope in Etherium to get it back for me…
I had gotten out at 14.5 k after being careless one night and NOT saving funds in fiat while sleeping... maybe 12% (but that's relative because I recall getting out at 16.6k when the great fall began and rebuying at 13.5... so it went up to 16.5k again and I felt I lost when it went down to 14.5, that's what I mean by "relative" - I didn't exactly lose money but I felt cheated when I should be grateful for the learning experience, a typical human failure) - I recovered that by trading Ripple till there started to be definitive sell walls again and again, and I only wanted out, no more Ripple for me... in fact, servers were down - a sign of too many other fools thinking exactly the way I did... ETH ain't bad but I had also been thinking of buying bitshares (BTS), I need ETH to buy that anyway, using Blocktrades... but not sure yet. In doubt, stay in fiat. I'd rather not earn something than lose - but I have a small investment in Stellar Lumens and I'll hodle that I guess ;)
checkout stop loss orders
I saw quit a bit of buy order volume in the order book at 13,500 but was surprised it went down lower when I didn't see much sell in the order book.
Now it is back up to 14,000. I wonder where the sells come from because I don't see them listed as limit orders. Maybe there is software that monitors this stuff for people and places sell orders when there is a spike to keep the price from dropping too far.
There's all sorts of algos doing the buy and sell for whales, they usually work on the RSI up and downtrends, they are programmed to mind typical resistance and support levels and profit form them
Great breakdown, can't disagree with any of it.
I wish you could ;)
Thank you for the analysis as always jojo. While I trade, I don't do so with profit % targets and only take chances when I think the odds are stacked in my favor. Despite the rally, I still suspect Bitcoin might head lower especially if we see volume start to pick up on downside. However, Bitcoin breaking above $13,750 again is an interesting event that I didn't anticipate to happen so easily, so will be interesting to watch over the coming few days.
Nobody anticipated it, but so far my green line held... however we're not done yet.
As this is a game of nerves, we may now have shaken out the deserters - but never the algos.
Interesting assessment! Sorry about your Ripple experience ;)
First and foremost, Congratulations on 100k on Youtube, and thanks for introducing me to Steemit.
As I mentioned on one of your other posts, "ripple went from 50 billion in market cap to 90 billion. Bitcoin was at 250B yesterday and is now sitting at 213B."
Once Coinbase puts Ripple on their platform on Jan 8th, I suspect people will dump their BTC shares for the Crypto currency that's been showing it's the new powerhouse, Ripple.
If not Ripple, Dash or Stratis will take away from BTC's market Cap.
Cheers!
@parzych, your last comment makes me want to remind you (and myself) that the market is not a zero sum game. The entire crypto market is growing like crazy to occupy its "rightful" place in a huge TAM. While there are and will be huge bubbles along the way it is obvious to me that there is a paradigm shift going on as the internet of value emerges.
Regards,
Rick
Thanks for that. You're point was a very good one.
What blows me away is when I tell friends and family about crypto they are all skeptic/reluctant. By the time they finally hop on board, I don't want to say it'll be too late, because it's not, but it will be their returns won't be what our are.
I watch this stuff every day in hopes of hitting 1 trillion in total crypto market cap. Why? Because it's a milestone I guess.
Let's not forget about Coinbase adding Ripple, Dash, and Stratis to their platform on Jan 8th. A Youtube said that "Coinbase is gaining 100k people a day (which must be why they suck so bad- aka bogged down)." I suspect 1 trillion will be sooner than later. But as for where Bitcoin stands when the market cap does hit it? No clue.
Thanks for getting me thinking, Rick.
Hi @parzych... do you have a source on the new Coinbase additions for Jan 8?
A few Youtubers have mentioned it. So upon digging deeper I found this: https://cryptosumer.com/2017/12/26/another-coinbase-gdax-leak-more-coins-added-january-8-or-sooner/
Not sure how reputable the site is, but it's my source.
Thank you sir... it looks possibly legit enough to take a very small position in Dash and Strat for a week or so... no harm no foul if nothing comes of it.
@parzych, you're welcome. Since you're a steemit noob like me, I'll ask for your upvote on my original reply. Money is the sincerest form of flattery (or appreciation), ;-)
Thanks back at you for the info about coinbase adding more cryptos soon. I've been looking for a way to open a position in Iota as a spec play. The concept seems similar to torrenting, as in the more users the faster things go. I'm not in a hurry to throw my money at other exchanges that also seem to have support issues. So maybe I'll just try patience for a change and see what happens.
Regards,
Rick
@parzych, so Coinbase/GDAX has still not added any new cryptos, as of yet. Anything new on that front? I will accept gossip and unfounded rumors. Getting bored watching only BTC, ETH, LTC, and now BCH. These days the stock market is more fun. (Watch that remark trigger a bear market in the SP500 tomorrow. Solipsism can be scary.
Regards,
Rick
The current price of ripple at $2+ is from the expectations (rumors) that coinbase will list Ripple in their platforms...so coinbase listing expectations has already been reflected into the price of xrp. I doubt it will go higher than that.
Thank you! It's amazing to have hit 100k subscribers. We might see Ripple pump even more if it is listed on Coinbase soon, although right now it's just rumors circulating. I think what a lot of people forget is that the reason Ripple is worth so much, and why all cryptocurrencies are worth so much, is because Bitcoin keeps going up. We could see Ripple take over Bitcoin, but I don't think that would last too long personally. However, I never really get surprised when stuff like this happens - so we'll see.
Another quality video!
Firstly I think it's great to see that 0.05 mark for ETH/BTC. It was a solid call and hopefully some people made some profits on it.
I think it's fantastic that despite the bounce back in the market (while uploading) you still finished the upload. It's really nice to see the transparency on your ideas/analysis of market. Despite the fact that the market was about to prove you wrong, you still stuck to your guns and put the video up. Much respect for this, and I have no doubt this is why people keep coming back to your videos.
I wanted to dive a little further in to your analysis on where the market is going. For those that have been following your numerous uploads over the past month, they will all know you've talked about the "overvalued" market that is currently at play. This leads me to my core question for you:
Why play in the market if you have confidence that it is overvalued and will correct much lower?
I most certainly agree that the market is overvalued, and I have lots of good reasons I can think of to answer the question myself, however I would love to hear your input on why you choose to continue trading in the current market, rather than sitting out for a bit until it settles appropriately. Are you only in the market slightly? Will you jump to fiat for a while? Excited to hear your answers on this one!
I also love the fact that you've touched on the market dominance trends in regards to Ripple causing a skewed view point. Ripple is clearly making waves (haha), but it most certainly is refracting the view of the current market and a lot of people tend to miss that.
Something that I feel most people here will agree with is that you keep a very unbiased opinion on the market, and it helps you see things that most others would miss; namely the non-analytical/traditional market trends and more so the emotional trends of the market. You do a great job here and it adds fantastic value and validity to your observations.
Thanks for the continued quality uploads. Keep doing what your doing!
Cheers
@snakemeister, I see you're another CI fan. FWIW, I'll provide my take on why I'm playing in an over valued market. Because markets can continue in an over valued (I never like the term overbought for technical reasons.) manner for an unusually long time. That is reason 1. Reason 2, I've only allocated around 5-6% of my resources to cryptos at present and have no plans for significantly increasing the allocation until I see a crash. Reason 3, I use stops and advance the stops below trend lines. That cost me about 20-30% of my positions in the 12/22 whipsaw. I'm just calling it a noob mistake and adjusting my rules a bit more conservatively. Given a little more time at these levels I'll have a full position in BTC, ETH, and LTC at a reasonable basis (I hope, cringe.) My plan is to be in position for the next leg up whenever that is. In the mean time I'm simply trying to absorb some wisdom on the margins from quality sources like CI.
Regards,
Rick
@ricknarveson Thanks for your input. It's always great to get multiple perspectives on a particular question. Sorry to hear about your whipsaw loss. Stops can be a little deceiving as they tend to make us feel more secure (as they are intended to) but they still have the potential to bite you in the rear! All learning experiences, and as you say CI has some good unbiased logic to share!
Thanks for sharing!
The loss was one of my cheaper tuition payments to the school of hard knocks. I've had some doozies and have slept much easier and more profitably since I made them a hard and fast rule early in 2016 (in the stock market).
One thing that unsettles me a little about the crypto market is that it never sleeps. Do you know anything about bots? I was looking into Haas but since I can't talk to someone there they'll have to make do without my business.
Regards,
Rick
Thank you for the kind words snakemeister (your name and profile pic make me laugh). I continue to play in this market for the same reason as most people - to make money. I've already made enough at this point that I can't lose if the market crashes and I've locked in enough profits on my initial investments that I've drastically outperformed what the stock market could have done for me.
Bubbles tend to offer great opportunities to create wealth if you just play it safe rather than greedy. There are people who made a nice chunk of change in the bull housing market prior to the 2008 collapse because they didn't keep buying new properties, but instead took advantage of the rising house values without leveraging themselves to death. Then there are the people who kept buying home after home because it was affordable and they were making a killing leveraging themselves (until it collapsed)
In fact, this is true of every bubble that has ever existed - there are people who reinvest everything, and then there are the conservative ones that take some money out to guarantee they come out ahead. The latter tend to underperform as the bubble continues to inflate, but they get to sleep well at night when the bubble pops. So all in all, I play with this market to make money. I also think the bubble will keep going for a while given the state of all the other existing markets for investing.
Thanks for the response! Can't wait to see where this market goes in 2018!
I have only just joined Steemit and not even set up my profile yet. In a sentence .... I am a crop Farmer primarily / ex fx trader of 10 years / commencing as Nutritional Therapist and Advanced Supplements Adviser. / Active with cryptos and metals since March 2017. I have been following Cypto Investor and Data Dash on YouTube.
I believe if you look at the chart for Bitcoin this year you can see a clear 5 wave advance with a massively extended 5th wave.(Elliott Wave analysis). The 5th wave is sometimes called the “lemmings” wave, when all the least informed buyers are running over each other to buy at any cost for fear of missing out - that’s a general understanding, not my personal view, so don’t shoot the messenger!
Wave 1’s tend to be savvy contrarian or insider type buyers. Wave 3’s are often the longest waves supported by well informed buyers on a much larger scale than wave 1 buyers.
If this is a completed 5 wave advance, concluding as Wall Street opened up its futures markets, we have topped for now and the entire 5 wave will be corrected deeply, often to specific Fibonacci levels, e.g. losing 61.8% to 76.4% of this year’s gains. This should trace out in three waves - down, up and further down to meet the final target, in an appropriately proportioned time span - a few months or more..
The structure of waves is not necessarily easy to pick up, as this is a fractal system of waves within waves I.e. a wave 1 of one degree will have a structure of 5 waves at a smaller degree. It is worth just googling Elliott Wave to understand the basics. It’s useful to view charts over multiple time frames - weekly, daily, 4 hourly, hourly.... to look for confirmation of patterns. Sometimes they are not at all clear and so other forms of chart analysis take precedent. None the less, the very visual nature of Elliott Wave has a place in chart analysis.
Bitcoin may be in for an alarming run down, over the next few months. If it happens, it will shake as many people out of bitcoin as possible. I am sure this is what Wall Street wants to see and could really undermine the decentralized nature of crypto currencies. Cryptos are thinly traded compared to Wall Street’s massive and orchestrated volumes of trade. The one thing that may catch out Wall Street speculators is the massive volatility that exist within cryptos. Stops cannot be set too closely or they will be triggered.
Are there any crypto investors here who use Elliott Wave analysis regularly?
Thank you for the post mooringsman and I'm happy you joined Steemit. It's cool to have such a diverse group of people who follow the channel. I've never been big on Elliot Wave analysis, but I know a decent amount of people use it with good success. My favorite likely has to go to Avi Gilburt, however I don't follow that type of analysis frequently because I tend to think most TA is far too open to interpretation. However, if you can make sense of it from a market rationale point of view, then it can be quite a powerful tool which it seems like that is what you are doing (rather than ONLY charting).
In anticipation of the possible BTC breakdown to the 8000s, I'm actually going to pick up some BCH. While BCH does usually fall when BTC falls, I just feel as if the current frustration with the BTC transaction fees could've actually escalated to the point where BCH does not fall as rapidly as BTC does and might actually breakout instead. Do you think I'm wrong to assume BCH will not fall as fast as BTC (should BTC breakdown)?
I would have probably picked up some more ETH for its' same breakout possibility points you've mentioned but I already own a decent portion of ETH for me to bother.
The Bitcoin marketcap percentage being this low because of Ripple could play a very interesting role in the BTC breakdown scenerio as well but I guess I'm just too stubborn to think that Ripple could overtake BTC's marketcap dominance anytime soon. Or I just believe in the community a bit too much for it to let that happen. Not that I don' believe in profit maximization.
Bottom line is that I'm going to get some BCH as sort of a hedge this time around. I'll just have to see what the market does, I guess.
This was a powerful analysis. In regard to BTC falling below the resistance, and at this moment, still well below...
My thoughts were similar when I was watching earlier today.
(Timeline) ~~> Isn't it ironic that Institutional Money takes notice - Futures enter - BTC FUD intensifies - World Governments savagely seek control mechanisms - then Ripple begins to dominate?
Sounds like over a year's worth of activity but we all know it is happening super fast
I wonder, what would this looks like on a 3 year future chart...
Who thinks that this would show that it seems an immense dip is truly coming? Im excited for more entry points before lighting. (As Im sure we all are) #BottomOutBTC
Thanks
Happy New Year!
Hard but posible
Big if true.
Last time Bitcoin lost its dominance and slipped below 50% was last year or early this year that Ethereum got lots of bull run and if I remember correctly its market cap became half of Bitcoin....So everyone was talking whether Ethereum replaces bitcoin but it didn't take so long that Bitcoin skyrocketed and went above 50% again.
I believe we have a same scanario here for Bitcoin & Ethereum after this Ripple hype...Bitcoin and ETH now are volcanic eruptions in the making!
@ka82, I had exactly the same thought about BTC and ETH this morning when I saw the overnight price action. But then I immediately warned myself not to buy into the BS too early. I'm looking for emerging resistance levels and planning my buy stops to add incrementally as those levels are convincingly broken through. As always, a work in process.
Regards,
Rick
This is a good thought, but it is important to remember that a lot of the "rocket fuel" that BTC has during this time was mainly due to an extremely high increase in media attention and news coverage. This year alone has been astounding for awareness around cryptocurrency in general. While I don't entirely disagree that it is a possibility, it is still important to separate the market-analytic factors from the emotional/media factors to best understand how things may not repeat that way. Predicting either direction is hard, but in the long run all 3 will most likely see an overall uptrend so still good news for everyone!
When it comes to advantages, BTC has "first", "biggest", and "most well known". Other than those, which are huge, no doubt, I fear it will not be the winner in the long run. I'm investing in BTC, ETH, and LTC because those are all GDAX had when I started a few months ago. I'm looking for an exchange where I can get into IOTA but not liking the buzz around the ones that currently offer it. Because I'm not a deep thinker my main chance in this game will be diversification.
Well I consider investing in Bitcoin like a long straddle (options strategy). If it rips to upside or downside, it will do better than altcoins. Altcoins tend to be like the short straddle position: If Bitcoin stays still, they tend to do well (except with much higher upside than short straddle so I guess that's not the BEST comparison but whatever). As dominance declines, I tend to it increases the ferocity by which Bitcoin can recover relative to alts when it dips or rips. We'll see how that plays out if Bitcoin has another huge volatile pump or dump.
I still think BTC could continue to correct down to the 8-10k levels before changing directions back upwards. At the current time I am hessitent to make any moves in the crypto space as the market is still very undecided whether we going to continue the bull run or switch to a bear run for the next few months. Prob the best thing to do at the current time is have some fiat waiting on the sidelines ready to react to any major dips or upturns in the coming weeks.
Yeah that's basically how I'm playing it (some in cash, some in Bitcoin). Means I'll miss out some if Bitcoin skyrockets, but I'm fine with that.
I've been calling for $7k to $8k for quite some time now, it's always time that is unpredictable.
Ever since we saw the first Bitcoin "crash" "correction" pullback whatever you want to call it. We were still in the risk zone of going down to 9k. This is what I've been keeping in mind ever since the start of the pullback.
I feel like some people already thought we were past the dip. But we've been in the dip since the 17th.
You have to look at bitcoin on the larger scale and not compare it to Altcoin graphs which have these ups and downs constantly but in a smaller timeframe.
I don't see any reason for Bitcoin to stay up so high in price. Bitcoin was the first crypto to come to existence and then was used for exchanging to altcoins, but now there are new promising altcoins that will do a better job at exchange between currencies.
Before i had to buy BTC and exchange it so some other altcoin. Now i use ETH more often. Cryptos for instance like COSS will try to offer an exchange between other currencies.
Lightning network might promise to fix Bitcoins issues, but it might just be easier to adopt a cryptocurrency that doesn't need fixing.
Speculation has nothing to do with these things, it's about the 21 million limit and about the 'classic.'
I never used btc for any sort of transaction. I never used gold to pay for food.
It's only a rational market to a very small part.
@jojof hits it on the head pretty well with the gold analogy. Even though BTC is less useful comparatively to many other altcoins, it is still the "grand-daddy" of cryptos. The original/classic currency tends to keep value even if it seems illogical. That's not to say it can't "pop" at some point, but the whole market will most likely follow suit. As to how they all rise from the ashes thereafter... that will be the exciting part :)
The reality is that very little of this bull run has to do with tech as majority of these cryptocurrencies have limited use cases and even though they might be able to scale to Bitcoin's size in terms of transactions, likely couldn't handle Visa level anyway. It doesn't matter though because reality is that the problem with almost all cryptocurrencies is that they are generally inferior to their centralized counterparts, frequently include tokens that aren't required (even some of the cryptocurrencies I'm invested in fit this criteria) and have awful user experiences. It will take a long time to fix those problems, so they will likely all undergo a metamorphosis in the long-run. Bitcoin will stick around simply for the fact that it is the king, affects other altcoins' prices and is the cryptocurrency most people know about.
Thank you for another very informative video/ post! I apologize if you've answered this question in a previous post but, without getting too deep into your personal investments, are you able to share an approximate break down of your portfolio's diversification, percentage wise?
I've just started my own research into various projects and diversifying my portfolio from solely BTC. As I am starting this process, I am looking for a general guideline of what percentage of my portfolio should be in BTC, LTC, Either, remaining top 10 & other altcoins.
I'm hopeful as I further diversify I will be better prepared for situations similar to this in the future since I am unable to buy as much into this dip as I would of hoped. Again, I realize this is subjective, but any general advise would be greatly appreciated. Thanks & Happy New Years!
I have answered this question before and, for now at least, I am holding off from releasing my portfolio to the public. In general, the less exposure you have to investing, the more you should have in Bitcoin. For most people, cryptocurrencies are a first time experience with investing and you will both lose and gain substantial amounts in short periods of time. Bitcoin has lower % swings than other cryptocurrencies so can be easier to sleep at night and it's the most important one to understand. After that, you begin touching other mega caps as you mentioned.
I don't think that it is all that important that you are well diversified into a ton of altcoins so much as it is that you have some allocation in Bitcoin and some allocation in altcoins so that your portfolio enjoys some benefits associated with less than perfect correlation.
@cryptovestor I know you’re saying this is a potential opportunity but is there a significant probability that this is the end of the bubble? Itseems like this past few weeks have been pretty different from recent history, even from the large corrections in the past. Trying my best to hold somewhat long term. That said I feel bullish very long term but pretty tentative short term as people tend to overestimate progress.
Obviously there are similarities with .com. We’ve also seen this recently with the 3D printing craze. The technology has promise but over a long period of time. Stocks were out of control way too early and had a substantial crash.
These things tend to eventually exceed the previous bubble but if you have to sit on your investment for years of sideways movement, there is a huge opportunity cost there.
I think the whales are priming the market for a nice discount on BTC for 2018. If they make the first move in and allow the price to rise, it will be a very fast move upward to try to discourage Joe Six pack from joining the party. Most of the seats in BTC that were vacated by weak hands and fair-weather fans in December's correction will be occupied by the new wave. Despite this new unprecedented upsurge, many Joe Six packs will jump on board to create another socially irresponsible fever pitch around the 50-60k mark. Uber drivers and hair-dressers will be talking again about their bitcoin which will signal another dump to 30k as futures traders win on the short side to gather more powder to buy the dip for the upside. The whales will continue to shear the sheep as long as its profitable. As each cycle of shearing transpires, more and more BTC will be concentrated into fewer and fewer hands. The layperson will become exhausted and disillusioned with the incessant crypto volatility; instead of being sheared, many of them will feel they got skinned and never return to BTC, which will be known as the elite's cryptoasset.
Once a predetermined majority percentage of BTC is owned by a conglomerate of like-minded elite, the cycle of shearing will cease and BTC will finally be allowed to be what it was destined to be: the world reserve currency, supplanting gold and the IMF SDR. National central banks will yield to the notion that BTC is a viable store of value and normal supply and demand will return, only this time, central banks with trillions in capital will be in play. As each central bank aggressively competes for its nation's share of this vanishingly small pie, the price will spike to unreal levels, further ossifying BTC's central role in the world economy. To paraphrase SelectQuote: "When central banks, corporations, Wall Street, hedge funds compete, you lose...UNLESS YOU HODL'd."
At this point, S Nakamoto will realize his vision has been twisted and will flood the market with his/her/their 1million BTC as a last ditch effort to reset the system. He will telegraph his intentions to the masses by ravens with the code words: "Winter is coming."
You have been warned.
noob reply here, but my 2 cents, (from a guy who has watched a few bubbles, like that internet thing back in the 90's) this is just getting warmed up with the money starting to climb aboard, just wait until full on FOMO hits in a few months..., but again, just another noob with an opinion
Solid concerns. I feel most people are in the same boat as you! Most feel optimistic for the general long term, but right now is a slightly scary time for BTC. It is still overvalued (in my opinion) and analytically it would appear it needs more of a correction (the pop), but time and time again BTC has surprised everyone with the directions its taken in reciprocation of traditional analytics.
I don't think so, but bubbles are notoriously difficult to predict when they will end that I obviously can't say for certain. There is a lot of capital on the sidelines still and plenty of dumb money wanting to get in that has either procrastinated on getting in or is realizing that it can take a while to transfer money to exchanges so are still waiting to get in after the recent spike and crash with Bitcoin (e.g: I have some family in that situation now). Given this, it's likely the bubble continues into 2018. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't last into 2019 though at the rate it has been growing.
Thank you, CI and everyone else for the responses. Looking forward to seeing how this shakes out.
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Well unfortunately this isn't an easy question to answer. I have a lot of confidence in my opinions about the market because I learned it doesn't serve you well to doubt every decision you make, so I just act on what I see as true. That's what I encourage most others to do too, but it's easier said than done. Some general ideas though:
The issue with this advice is you need to have some idea of what you think is going to happen next, which can be difficult to do without becoming emotional. Not too much that can help with that other than experience.
Hey @CI,
I have no idea what I just did but I've apparently resteemed your post. Hope that's a good thing.
So you vote trap. Wisdom tells me I should not take the opposing side of the question but I'm thinking opportunity.
The buy walls I saw/see at 12500 were huge. Sure, they could evaporate in a split second but the same psychology operative at the 1K price marks is in play at the 2.5K price marks. And I think it is possible that older market players like me may think in quarters, like 12500, 15000, etc.
JMHO
Please clarify, I think you have said that the declining bitcoin dominance (by market cap) is making you more bullish on bitcoin in general?
Thanks for another interesting and informative vid.
Regards,
Rick
Rick,
Always happy to see you jump platforms with me. Have dragged you along on a few at this point. Resteeming is basically the equivalent of retweeting, so it's good!
Nothing wrong with taking the opposite side - especially when it's bullish with an asset like Bitcoin. I don't think there's much support for the market til we fall back to that $10,000 - $11,500 level again. Last time we cut through $12k like butter. I'm just taking a bet based on the fact that we cut through what I viewed as a critical support level ($13,750 and then $13,500), but there is plenty of room on the opposite side of the table.
Declining dominance leads to me being bullish on Bitcoin because it means it is cheap relative to altcoins and it has historically bounced back from that (although admittedly there is limited history). I suspect we will see such a situation again where Bitcoin has another pump or dump that leads to the dominance figure increasing again.
Now that you mention it, you have dragged me along from Seeking Alpha to your nascent yt channel and now here. Take it as a compliment because I'm usually not much of a follower.
I don't consider myself very bullish on bitcoin at the moment. I like to trade using buy stops and I don't see anything on the horizon that would move me to place a buy stop on bitcoin at any price below 20,010 (opinion subject to change without notice). The price is dropping under a very aggressive downtrend from 19,890 on the 17th thru 16,490 on the 27th and doesn't look like threatening to violate that downtrend soon. Volume is pretty consistently below the SMA50 volume since the pre-Xmas massacree. There's been two days of apparent support at the rising SMA50 but... I've extrapolated the SMA50 into the near future assuming all future closes equal the current close and that shows me the SMA50 colliding with the overhead downtrend on Friday at 13,428. At the moment I'm not sanguine about what happens then. I've set small limit orders to add at 11,212 and 10,512 then I'll put my full 'catching a falling knife' paranoia hat back on and just hodl until I can see an uptrend.
Regards,
Rick
PS Wishing you and yours a happy and prosperous new year.
Great question! I do believe he has said that as well. It's interesting to see how bullish you can get in a market you think is still overvalued. Lots of fun to see how people handle it differently for sure!
Cheers
Looking forward to your post on the Gemini/GDAX arbitrage.
@cryptovestor I follow you on yt and I think you always have good insights, that said, since you have been in the space for long, how'd you compare btc's downtrend to past years on this time of year? Has it always become bearish due to tax payments or is this an unusually bearish trend? And, why are you not selling btc yet? Thanks for your time
I don't believe there is seasonality in prices, mostly from my experience with stocks although funny enough there was a phenomenon called the January effect in stocks that might be happening with cryptocurrencies too. I think it's mostly coincidence though than anything else. I am not selling my bitcoin just because I prefer selling it when it pumps than when it is selling off.
If anyone watches the end of this and is inclined to join Gemini - just know that I've been waiting to get my account validated there since December 18th - so don't expect a quick set up and set up long before you actually need it. (No other exchange ever took remotely this long to approve.)
One thing I've noticed especially lately is there are certain YouTubers (I'm not talking about this OP who happens to be my favorite crypto commentator) who when they do a hype video about a coin - the coin will pop. Of course it's not because of them and of course they don't have inside information, but they seem to be a good barometer of the hype. I remember this exact phenomenon in the dot com boom. There was a way to trade that was basically forget the value of the stock - pay attention to the hype and find some key barometers - like when these two sources are talking about it you know the hype train has started. Get in... then get out after the first move and then just stay engaged to see if it's worth getting in.
The follow up old joke then was "and when your Mom talks about it, sell." Interestingly enough, my Mother mentioned bitcoin to me when it hit $20,000 per coin.
Yes, it's becoming a lot more like the peak of the dot com bubble although I don't think we are quite there yet: My plumber hasn't made me any cryptocurrency recommendations yet...
I've taken to mentioning Bitcoin and cryptocurrency trading to random people I meet, just to see what awareness is out there. I meet few who are aware and those that are aware are wary. So in Oxnard CA the hype does not seem to have started.
As the dot com bubble was inflating, we didn't really have the internet as we know it today, IMHO. Now we meet in virtual locales like this through our shared interest in the topic, so it may provide the illusion that awareness and the hype is widespread.
I don't watch TV and have not for about 14 years. Are there TV ads encouraging people to invest in cryptos? That would be a harbinger of the bubble ready to burst.
Regards,
Rick
I have to say trap because Bitcoin offers virtually zero utility value. Nearly all the utility it may have been able to provide at ~5 tx/sec is negated by its prohibitively high fees.
I'm honestly not opposed to the whole market correcting and developing support for future growth. I did spring out of bed this morning to buy more BTC when I saw it at $12,300ish... and have no problems with it falling further. I expect in the new year that our old friends BTC and ETH will rise back to their November 2017 values.
The only thing I'm not sure on is how Ripple will affect the whole market... is this a huge pump and dump or will this signify that the market does want a centralized coin that helps the banking sector? I've got no idea personally.
Most people are in this for speculation, they don't give a damn about anonymity or 'centralization' or privacy at this time. That will become a factor once the tax man rings, that will show Ripple it's limits - as it is a banker's coin. Then, there may be a SWIFT coin soon... so I don't see Ripple taking over the market, it's only attraction lies in the boom and the hype and the speculation itself. Right now, it;s as dangerous to the bitcoin brand as the BCH attempts to take over were, that seem to have already been forgotten by most...
I think it will probably go lower considering there isn't too much news out right now. I would expect it to go as low as $10,000 but not to breach that level. I expect the majority of the alts would follow BTC lower. So, I would selectively buy projects that seem to be good values as prices go lower.
Just a thought, but I think the US government would like to keep bit coin below 10k and even below 5k. They do not like to see people with that much liquid asset on hand. They will flag a person who deposits more than 5k in cash into a bank account. They will also flag a person who stockpiles too much bullion. They think it is a sign of drug trafficking, terrorism or money laundering. I cant prove it and I dont know how they are doing it but I do think they are trying to influence the bitcoin price to keep it low. It is my own crypto conspiracy theory.
Thanks for this assessment! Another factor to consider are tax implications. I expect more people to cash out to fiat at the beginning of the year in order to defer taxes until 2019. As a result, the price might trend further downward.
Also, there are alot of new investors. Some might start to sell their bitcoin since it's been somewhat of a prolonged period where bitcoin has pretty much been sideways (not hitting ATH on a weekly basis). With this in mind, some might panic sell if we see a significant drop.
Thanks for your eloquent insights into this fascinating sphere! What is the best introduction to technical analysis for absolute beginners?
Read William J. Oneill's "How to Make Money in Stocks" and go to Stockcharts.com and look into their chart school tutorials.
But please remember, technical analysis does not predict what will happen to prices. It only indicates the possibilities and probabilities, NOT CERTAINTY.
I use TA because I know I don't know how to interpret the verbiage that passes for companies' quarterly and annual reports. Lines on a chart are much clear to me than people who twist the English language to indicate things are good when they are really headed into the toilet.
Regards,
Rick
Thanks! I am new to cryptocurrencies (or trading, for that matter) and I am actually sceptical about TA, but I would still like to understand the core concept and the main techniques of this approach to figure out if it makes sense to me or not.
@schuwall, you're welcome. I hesitate to welcome you to the wonderful world of trading and TA though. The market is a savage place that can and will take your hard earned money without remorse or mercy or pity. Please please be very careful and paranoid.
Please do not trade more than you can afford to lose.
With those basic humanitarian cautions expressed, welcome to trading.
The basic premise of TA is that all information known to all market participants is reflected in price and volume. It is that simple. Further theory says that one does not need to know the "reasons" for price and volume changes because patterns of price and volume changes emerge that create opportunities for profitable trading.
Those who deride TA tend to misunderstand probability is not certainty and that discipline and planning are required for both downside and upside scenarios in any trade.
I am not any kind of TA expert. I'm self taught and extremely simplistic in my analysis and in the last 30 years I'm sure I've lost more money than I've made trading.
There is a youtube channel called DataDash and a guy named Nick there who seems to be a pretty knowledgeable TA practitioner. I rarely subscribe to youtube channels but I'm considering a DataDash sub.
Good luck and be careful,
Rick
Is this the newest edition of the book?
http://amzn.to/2CppoL1
That is the correct book. I don't know if it is the newest because I read it 17 years ago after the dot.com bubble burst and my $66,000 IRA became a $22,000 IRA.
Also, to be clear, I am not recommending the CANSLIM methodology. I'm just saying the book helped me get clear on reading charts, trends, and indicators.
Back in 2000 there were not many books available in the "... For Dummies" series. Maybe Technical Analysis for Dummies is worth looking at.
Good luck,
Rick
I'm not sure why you wouldn't sell a portion of your position if you think it will go lower on the short term. I say buy what you think will go up, and sell what you think will go down. Isn't this basic investing? Could you explain why you aren't going to sell any right now?
One has to pay attention to basic indicators such as RSI, on the 4 hour scale, it is oversold and at the strong resistance point at 13k. There still is a chance for it to go up and only when it does break should one be a bit more concerned.
You're generally correct, but I already positioned my portfolio back when I bought Bitcoin at $11.5k for it to go all the way down to $8k. In other words, I already have enough cash in my portfolio.
Have a look at https://coinmarketcap.com/exchanges/volume/24-hour/
Ripple is dominating every exchange except a few that force Bitcoin trading pair onto their customers and some that just don't list Ripple. If you are anywhere and you want to receive or send cryptoassets, XRP is the by far the best option - at least if XLM isn't an option and IOTA isn't yet functioning as it should.
I would say that Bitcoin is the most dangerous cryptoasset right now. If you invest in a ton of very speculative upcoming projects, you will likely do well. But Bitcoin is actually totally unusable, and it will still be unusable when they paste a Lightning Network on it and their developers and users are totally delusional and just repeat that Bitcoin will always be king.
I will not go as far as saying that XRP is a good investment, but it's a great asset to buy for your USD/EUR/KRW/INR/AUD etc and then transfer it to your family/business partner in a foreign country or to a cryptoasset exchange that have that obscure project that you are interested in.
Bitcoin on the other hand has no use case except giving you forks (and arguably to trade with on Binance and Bittrix - but how long until they switch to pseudo-fiat and/or XRP as a middle step instead?).
I might be wrong in my prediction, but I'm not wrong in that betting on Bitcoin dominance is "risky". It is! And when Bitcoin loses its dominance, it has nothing left to go for it, and also all the Bitcoin forks, including Litecoin and Dash, have lost their only selling point that is that they are "better than Bitcoin". They just can't compete with XRP, XLM and pretty soon IOTA.
But I'm very bullish on the smart contracts platforms - but most of them will probably fail as developers flood to the most popular one(s). The winner(s) will be great though. And then there will be thousands of small and tiny cryptoasset projects built on these platforms that will be the new economy. A new economy that the steam engine Bitcoin started, but no longer is used in.
Time to get greedy! 😁
I believe we can see the flippening in 2018 yes but with IOTA or ADA. XRP is a great projects for big companies. But for us individuals it will be the decentralized low or no fees projects that will do the trick.
I like the opening statement ("You know what time it is again...), because it works across all time zones :)
Is it a good time now to trade XRP for BTC?
It's hard to tell with XRP in regards to where it will go. However based on market volume, there is most likely a fair amount of downwards pressure on XRP at this time. Trading to BTC wouldn't be a terrible idea, but this is simply based on market based analytics, not emotional ones. We all know how the market can be influenced by emotions, news and non-traditional factors so be careful and do lots of research on your best options before trading :)
I am planning to start accumulating starting from 12,000
So...do you suggest buying more ETH when it is valued between 0.055 and 0.06BT??
No. His suggestion is to sell at this price. 5.5M satoshis is high value for ETH. Trading ETH in to BTC would be wise at this point, as it will most likely drop soon. He has touched on this point a few times over the past few weeks and the price point finally came around. Of course do your own research and be sure you trade based on your own logic, but his personal recommendations are this.
I think this is because of holiday season.
Who cares about this when everyone is with the family.
Also there was some money taken out from Bitcoin to buy
gifts imo.
Ripple is rising because it's centralized and they have control over every move, Bitcoin is like an uncontrollable wild animal. It can touch 20k or even come down to 6.5k.
I am rooting for a touch with the 100 day moving average, as Bitcoin did the first four dips this year. On the last two (November and X-mas) it bounced back on the 50-day. I am looking to add to my position if it crosses the 10k line. I personally don't think the bubble is ripe for bursting quite yet.
Definitely a bit disappointed I didn't take my friend's advice on buying some Ripple back in October. I saw it was involved with major banks, and stayed away. In the back of my mind though I knew that meant it was more likely to be pumped up, and could have made some cash from it....
Overall I still think BTC has staying power as long as it keeps evolving so that fees lower, and transaction times speed up.
I think the best thing a person can do with their bitcoin is save their private keys in a safety deposit box (and only there) across town where it is not super convenient but still relatively accessible in a short period of time. Ignore all the drama and volatility and every month or so glance at the price of bitcoin. It's too tempting to jump out of bitcoin and then into cash or an altcoin with the hope of jumping back into bitcoin at a lower price and with more bitcoins.
Remember when bitcoin was making new highs? We all new there would be more volatility. The momentum will shift again in bitcoins favor.
Hey, I know you're probably over this topic since you posted the video about it so long ago but a response would be really greatly appreciated.
What do you think the new risk factors for SALT are now that the platform has successfully released and they have begun rolling out over a million dollars in loans per day (implying that they have been able to navigate around regulation).
The SALT team has said many times over their official telegram channel that the reason they are rolling out loans relatively slowly over the first few days is that they want a 0% error rate before they scale up and greatly speed up the loan application process.
Furthermore, what do you think could possibly stop SALT from reaching a market price of $27.50 being that you can use SALT purchased on any exchange to pay your principal and interest on you loan, making it very profitable for debters to purchase SALT on exchanges and use it to pay down their loans until the price reaches SALT retail price.
Thank you in advance for your time and I look forward to your response.
Thanks for the video again and also introducing Steemit to me. A big fan of your videos from YouTube. Bitcoin has always been resilient in terms of its price and this is the first time in a Long while we have seen where it retraced 50%. The introduction of futures no doubt had a degree of impact on the bitcoin landscape. Will be interesting to see where things will go from now.
@cryptovestor, I enjoy your YouTube videos. I’m going to follow you. I traded out of bitcoin Saturday morning. You know that @runridefly started
Steem On Dude!
New tax code is an issue. Hope you already figuring it out for us!
This is how I see BTC RN FWIW
https://www.coinigy.com/s/i/5a490364a6146/
Since there may be an opportunity to buy Bitcoin at an even greater discount rate, it would be helpful if you could share your insights on how to effectively use exchanges such as coingecko.com, shapeshift.io or changelly.com in order to optimally trade for altcoins.
I totally agree with you about keeping money/bitcoin on exchanges. If someone wants to take advantage of opportunities in crypto they have to be able to act fast and have their funds super accessible.