Haejin why? It is not even a token its a debt instrument redeemable for 1 usd worth of steem!
I will listen to your advice though ;p
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Haejin why? It is not even a token its a debt instrument redeemable for 1 usd worth of steem!
I will listen to your advice though ;p
He is performing technical analysis, not a fundamental analysis. You should take the technical analysis and pair it with fundamental analysis to figure out when you need to abort your technical and rely on fundamentals. Fundamentally, sbd is redeemable for 1usd worth of steem. But don't forget that the mechanism behind that fundamentally allows sbd to be very high when it is in demand. The unusually high demand is unaccounted for in technical analysis, and only partly accounted for in fundamental analysis.
My recommendation to you is to weigh the pro and cons of buying sbd as an investment medium right now and the associated risk of having the market dump sbd back into the market place.
that why i convert to steem...less chance of being dumped on plus steem is getting alot of attention steem is a huge buy right now...
Converting within the Steemit system give you very little in return. Sell it and buy STEEM for the best returns.
On the market right that’s what I’m doing or something else ?
Nah, you got it, get the market value, then buy back into steem.
just do the math, if you go on to the market place within steem, they give you the steem sbd conversion ratio.
then you can go on bittrex or whatever market you use, find the two, and throw in the cost of transacting through BTC, then youll see if its better to go on the internal market, or on the external market.
this would be one of the correct moves. I think selling SBD to STEEM for people who really want to stay vested in steemit, this would be the IDEAL move. However you are betting on the success of steem in this case.
Oh yes, I am certainly not buying any SBD! But been having fun selling and converting all that I own.
How do you view this analysis? Do you think sbd will shoot up like this? I'm kind of buying the limited supply idea. I'm thrilled I can generate sbd by my words and photos and videos. So thrilled right now :)
I take it with a grain of salt.
Look at it this way, technically, @haejin is correct. The moment SBD shows signs of weakness, he will need to correct his primary wave. When the market turns bearish, he will again call everything correctly. but on the downside.
But where do draw the line between fundamentals and technicals? Right down the middle. You need both, and what i will say is that technical analysis helps you find a way in. Fundamentals tells you why you should be in.
This is my belief.
That's a prudent strategy. We call it laddering in, but I would eliminate any fundamental ideas on the coin.....as you can see, it's "pegged to a dollar" fundamental idea does not hold water.....at all. I agree that buying at a high point is not the most prudent way to buy in, but the same TA that said it would get to where it is now, also says it's going higher. So I would then ask, what has changed since the last fundamental element did not hold true? Only the price...which is exactly what the TA is based on. If the TA runs the numbers WAY above what fundamentals suggested is possible, why would you then turn to fundamentals to see where it is going next?
Fundamentally SBD can be whatever price it wants to be at. The mechanism to keep it at $1 is fundamentally flawed. Once we know that, then we know that factually SBD is not pegged to the $. USDT is pegged to the dollar. This is why SBD typically floats around $1.00
TA does not take into account how useful SBD is.
Fundamentals do, everything beyond the fundamental is price action.
If there is no fundamental reason that people should have SBD, then you should be more careful because the hammer can drop once the sentiment goes away.
But if fundamentally steem was growing way way faster then it could issue SBD, and the need to spend SBD was very very high, then you know that the sentiment is unlikely to reverse.
let me just repeat this, there is no fundamental basis for SBD to be $1.00. There is no mechanism to pegg it to the $. The mechanism only encourages SBD to not be below $1.00. Therefore it can be as high as it wants. but people shouldn't be a fool and ignore the question of why is the demand for SBD so high.
This is about trading for me personally, so I don't see any foolishness in using TA to have a forecast that allows a coin you own to rise 18x it's previous value. Then I sell it. I don't need to know anything about it actually, not just not knowing why it is in demand. I actively ignore news, rumors, and explanations like this....because they mean nothing to the value I just pulled out of this coin.
There are coins that are valuable and useful.
There are coins that are valuable and useless.
There are coins that are worthless and useful.
There are coins that are worthless and useless.
The first half of the first two statements is all that really matters when actively trading.
i agree with the trader mentality. You dont care about anything other than the price action, which TA does a great job at reading. If there is volume, there is sentiment, and all you want to do is ride the wave.
If anyone has ever actively traded stocks, they will know that the best stocks to buy are always the one that have the most volatility and you should be happy with buying a little late, and selling a little early, making a profit and turning a blind eye to everything else.
Trading is not for the weak stomach.
From a trading perspective, I totally agree, but from an investment perspective, TA isn't the end all be all.
I will stick to coins that I believe are undervalued. This one may have potential in the TA department, but I wouldn't want to get stuck holding the bag on this one. I'm more of a long term guy, but Haejin's been teaching me a lot.
Your comment was particularily insightful as well!
We need both!
Co-mingling this level of technical analysis and fundamentals is not recommended. Of course, do as you will.....but we have been over this many many many many many times.....and the technical analysis done by Haejin trumps all fundamental arguments as to why a coin can or can not achieve a certain price. I'm sorry, it just does.....it's proven and solidified in the blockchain right now to be looked back on.
great answers.do you have telegram or are you n steemit chat?
are you asking me? im on discord. whats steemit chat?
Don't over complicate what is staring you in the face my friend.
I can't tell you how many times I've mathematically calculated something should not stand, yet it does and i know my math is correct, and i know that my math does not match reality. And that is because of how you model the degrees of freedom.
The very fact that you said you shouldn't mingle technical and fundamental indicates that you have a different level of degree of freedom in your understanding of how things work.
You have your reason for saying why (and I'd be glad to read it if you send me a link to it if you can get to it easily), but what it all boils down to is how many variables you do not take into account. The fact is that there are hundreds of variables in the crypto world that is unaccounted for, and you can only process so much information before you don't consider your model to be realistic.
The last statement you made there is exactly the point. When we measure sentiment based on price action, there is reasoning to that. Price action is one step removed from Sentiment. Anything else comes after that. People often say sell the news. That's because news is old as soon as it's written, which creates chasing. The news attempts to explain the price movement. Sentiment actually drives the price movement. Now whether you want to believe that is a measurable factor is completely up to you.
I didn't used to believe it, but as I learned more about it, and I watched the news and press releases and government mandates come in over and over to justify the measurement of sentiment....AFTER the fact....I couldn't ignore it.
Sentiment drives the price, thus price movement is the FIRST indicator, and everything else is trying to fill in the blanks. That doesn't mean TA is meant to nail every number every time...although it often does. It just means that you are working with the element most closely related to the actual price movement. Fewer variables to botch the forecast with....no emotion attached, no personal connection to sway what the price movement tells you.
How it is measured can be considered quite esoteric....but what matters to me is what works. I don't need to assign a reason why it works if it works, although there is a reason that I believe to be true. As humans, it is very difficult to release the need for explanation.
The TA we perform here is based on two techniques. And we do believe that News or Events Shall Arrive to Justify the Forecast, and NEVER the other way around.
The success of this blog is not due to someone selling dreams to people or a great amount of lucky projections. It is due to Haejin being very very experienced (through trying many techniques and having tonnages of failure), and then developing an approach to analysis that is successfully projecting price pathways with a percentage that is above 90%. I know of no other method that has ever produced better results.
As a side note....just because I apply a very specific technique certainly does not reflect on my ability to comprehend or to be aware of any degree of freedom of understanding. It is an intentional move based on positive results.
Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
It means exactly what it says. Any more questions kid?
This one in particular has been very entertaining ;p
I think crypto maniacs that buy every growing coin will not even try to analyze it.
It is a token....a tradeable token on the market, not just a debt instrument on this website.
Yes, it is tradeable. Maybe I am getting philosophical here, bonds have markets too. Blockchains produce tokens which are more like stocks - they are assets, claims of ownership. The SBD is a bond, a promise to pay. It is basically a piece of paper, without the paper. But of course backed by the full faith and functioning of the steem blockchain.
Correct, just as Smart Media Tokens will be.....a promise to the user here, but valuable to others as an asset. Check out the LAToken.com project.....it stretches the mind on what value really is, and what ownership really is....it allows ANYTHING to be tokenized....all based on contracts between the purchasers and the one who owns the Estate, art, jewerly, or whatever......but once contracted, the buyers can present their token ownership to the market in the hopes of getting a better price than they paid, while the other party is hoping the value gained over time will allow them to profit as well. It is truly what the future of tokens will look like at some point.....well now, but widespread at some point.
If they really wanted it to stay within the system as a bond, it never would be introduced to the market.