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SUMMARY
If you're getting paid out on Steemit.com blogs; select the 50/50 payout and hold your SteemDollars. My target per below is $31.45
The chart is showing completed impulse waves and the a,b,c also completed. Now, a new setup of impulse is starting so blue 1 and 2 are done that leaves blue 3,4,5 towards $31.45!!
Please consider reviewing these Tutorials on:
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #1
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #2
Elliott Wave Counting Tutorial #3
Laddering and Buy/Sell Setups.
Laddering Example with EOS
Tutorial on the use of Fibonacci & Elliott Waves
These Technical Analysis Books: Elliott Wave Priniciple & Technical Analysis of Stock Trends are highly recommended
@haejin's Trading Nuggets
Essay: Is Technical Analysis a Quantum Event?
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Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
there is no reason to pay so much for SBD
I can't imagine who is buying it, but the great thing for Steemians is that we can earn it by just having fun and networking on this platform. Free SBD in my eyes, so whoever is buying it, are likely not Steemians and don't grasp that they can earn it for significantly cheaper.
I did....because in 3....2.....1.....it's about to blow again..... As Haejin points out the counts, I'd like to show you what the fractals play out that fall right in line with the counts....
Scarlet, are the 'potential' timelines on Haejin's potential pathways pretty real time?
eg: On this SBD chart his count says within a few days we might see this SBD jump.
Obviously no one can see the future (except Haejin lol), but do we take the days in the future as a realistic timeline potential or do we space it out over a wider time frame?
is $31.45 by the 15th a realistic possibility or would you change that to like 7 days or a month (and if so, why?). Hope this question makes sense. Like is the projected pathway of $31 just looking like it's within a few days because he has no more room for the wave to go?
Thanks again for all your input Scarlet. Reading your comments is priceless!
I'll reference you to his own answer to that: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/essay-why-is-time-projection-so-difficult-for-technical-analysts
Time is neither Linear nor two dimensional....
And thank you!
thanks for the link. I've been HODLing for a while now just eager to see this baby breakout again. I will just remain patient :D
Thanks again!
Take some profits on the highs....30-50%. Then keep some in case it rides higher after your first profit taking.
is it just me or did SBD break out below the right triangle on 'e'? That's not a good sign is it? gulp.
edit: the daily low was down to $9 but I actually think that was the 'bottom' before this breakout.
From now on price of SBD is became indicator of stupid money on the market. At least for me.
I love making stupid money! Stupid stupid amounts of money!
Can't see this one happening. It's designed to be pegged to USD. It will be fascinating to watch what happens. Is this the ultimate battle between fundamentals and tech trading?
Would be crazy tech!!
I'm holding my breath! Fascinated. I was always believer in fundamentals...
It was meant to be pegged to USD and life made some corrections - now STEEM is the one that is following SBD.
Hahaha - yes, lets see how this plays out...
Crazier things have happened in crypto!
Did you ever think SBD would hit 10,12,18 dollars while STEEM stayed at 1.50?
I posted this two days ago....having to do with the fractals above...and we had another burst:
Intrigued and followed
It's happening again.....
Madness! I tell ya!
Insane!
Best thing about this SBD pump is that Steem will rise with it!
Interesting, I though there was some mechanism to keep it pegged to 1 dollar worth of steem. I have no clue how that mechanism, which is clearly not working at the moment is suppose to work though. I must look into it.
OK so for anyone that might be interested, I had a chance to look into this and the answer would seem relevant to haejins predictions for steem and sbd.
As far as I understand it the quantity of SBD created in any given day is related to the price of the steem token. So as the price steem rises the inflation rate of SBD also rises, in theory that should put downward pressure on the price of SBD, essentially devaluing it in the same was as the Fed issuing USD devalues that.
Of course downward pressure does not necessarily mean the price will actually drop, so this does seem lend some credence to haejins hypothesis that SBD price may be a leading indicator of a steem price movement.
I still don't understand why steam dollars is worth more than steam. Totally blows my mind. I thought it was suppose to pegged to dollar. Oh well lol
I am surprised as well.
actually Steem dollars can be redeemed to 1 dollar worth of Steem, making an arbitrage profitable for SBD bought for a lesser price on an the market, to convert to Steem, then repeat.
but it seems there is no way to do the reverse. ( by example converting Steem to receive sbd at a rate of 1sbd=1usd even though they could be sold for more on the market or exchanges )
So is it an anomaly, or will events justify this forecast (new utility for Steem dollars, reintroduction of interest on SBD holding... ?)
Supply and demand. SBD can be bought on Bittrex, Poloniex(in theory), and Blocktrade.us. It's on Coinmarketcap and people see the percentage gains every day. Our low supply in circulation has a lot to do with it too. Only 3.6 million compared to Bitcoin's 16.7 million. You're not seeing the same price action with Steem because there are 246.3 million Steem tokens in circulation. The volume has to be there to move Steem more than SBD because there's a lot more Steem to move.
It is kind of topsy turvy. What I hope happens is people realize they can use that SBD to reinvest into Steem. This should drive the price of Steem up too. I don't think we'll see SBD trading around $30+ and Steem is still under $10. I think they'll both be linked and will rise together, I just think SBD does it quicker because of the previously-mentioned reasons.
One does wonder what this means for the entire concept of being pegged to the dollar. I think there are benefits this could bring to content creators and authors on the platform. Any rise in SBD makes posting much more valuable. That only helps Steemit IMHO. It's important to remember that SBD is part of an ecosystem that is not static. They were meant to be a place to hold your money if Steem were too volatile. Being pegged to the dollar gives it some appeal.
In a low volatility market, if it's low, SBD can be great to hold due to the 10% return you get on the balance. However, when it's above $1, the interest is disabled. So they created SBD anticipating what it's currently doing.
None of those factors are considered when projecting the price pathway.....it is 100% purely based on price action. Market Cap, circulation, etc honestly have nothing to do with it's trade price, despite popular opinion. This has been proven over and over and over in this blog with coins that were never supposed to be able to get above a certain amount, or because the coin has a huge daily inflation (EOS)......believe it or not, it just doesn't drive the market, sentiment does....and that's what we're measuring here.
I believe that 1$ pegging applies to steemit only. If you withdraw 1 SBD from your Steemit account only 1 USD is removed from your balance. So it's only 1$ on steemit and it can be any amount outside of it.
Right....best to sell it at market value.
I'd like to see the links to this information if you know where they are. I'm not saying you're wrong, as I know it's deeper than simple supply and demand. I have a hard time wrapping my head around the concept that it plays no role at all. I don't think all movement is purely technical, but I'm open to competing ideas.
I will be completely candid about this. It is a very hard concept to get the human mind to bind to, and absolutely there are many many people who wholeheartedly disagree with pure Technical Analysis.
As humans, we NEED to attach meaning to everything to make sense of the environment around us, and we NEED to have a cause and effect, if for nothing other than to keep us sane in many cases.
Ohhh man....this could get pretty long and deep....let's start here...this is an essay that Haejin, the author of this blog, wrote a while back that explains much of what I would be getting at here: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/essay-is-technical-analysis-a-quantum-event
I personally would love to discuss it with you, but I am about to leave work at this moment. Do you have Telegram? This is more of a conversation than just a statement. Check your wallet.
Are you on Discord?
Interesting viewpoint.
OMG!
Wow. Just wow. If SBD go above $30 who cares what the price of Steem is!!!
steem will be high for sure cant wait
A whole lots of people. Most people have Steem instead of SBD
Well people need to diversify. I too have the majority of my Steem powered up but if you arevregularly earning, just send SBD to an exchange and cash it out rather than converting to Steem and powering up. Or power it up anyway as you’ll get far more than you used to!
Upvote & retsteem ...keep up the great job!!
I almost sold mine the other day and then figured I should hold out to see what happens. As always, thanks!
Wow, this blog post will be worth more than $900 in the future!
We should start upvoting less, because that would be too much.
😉
TY for sharing @haejin 🌻on steemit SBD ♨
And now for the next leg.
Where can I see if I have set 50/50 payout? Thank you.
Hey,
just wanted to say I've been following your predictions and analysis these past few weeks & have enjoyed your efforts. I still have to go through the tuts you've put together tho...
Either way, pretty interesting work, I appreciate the info too.
May good fortune find us all ;)
I like that you are spreading good karma on steemit, I will take some please ;)
Let's hope that you meet your target so that I can join in sharing the beer with you! At least, I have done my part by donating a vote to you Lol..
I'm really glad I've been only doing 50/50! I never even would have thought of SBD changing values. I thought it was supposed to be a solid $1:1 ratio.
Haejin why? It is not even a token its a debt instrument redeemable for 1 usd worth of steem!
I will listen to your advice though ;p
He is performing technical analysis, not a fundamental analysis. You should take the technical analysis and pair it with fundamental analysis to figure out when you need to abort your technical and rely on fundamentals. Fundamentally, sbd is redeemable for 1usd worth of steem. But don't forget that the mechanism behind that fundamentally allows sbd to be very high when it is in demand. The unusually high demand is unaccounted for in technical analysis, and only partly accounted for in fundamental analysis.
My recommendation to you is to weigh the pro and cons of buying sbd as an investment medium right now and the associated risk of having the market dump sbd back into the market place.
that why i convert to steem...less chance of being dumped on plus steem is getting alot of attention steem is a huge buy right now...
Converting within the Steemit system give you very little in return. Sell it and buy STEEM for the best returns.
On the market right that’s what I’m doing or something else ?
Nah, you got it, get the market value, then buy back into steem.
just do the math, if you go on to the market place within steem, they give you the steem sbd conversion ratio.
then you can go on bittrex or whatever market you use, find the two, and throw in the cost of transacting through BTC, then youll see if its better to go on the internal market, or on the external market.
this would be one of the correct moves. I think selling SBD to STEEM for people who really want to stay vested in steemit, this would be the IDEAL move. However you are betting on the success of steem in this case.
Oh yes, I am certainly not buying any SBD! But been having fun selling and converting all that I own.
How do you view this analysis? Do you think sbd will shoot up like this? I'm kind of buying the limited supply idea. I'm thrilled I can generate sbd by my words and photos and videos. So thrilled right now :)
I take it with a grain of salt.
Look at it this way, technically, @haejin is correct. The moment SBD shows signs of weakness, he will need to correct his primary wave. When the market turns bearish, he will again call everything correctly. but on the downside.
But where do draw the line between fundamentals and technicals? Right down the middle. You need both, and what i will say is that technical analysis helps you find a way in. Fundamentals tells you why you should be in.
This is my belief.
That's a prudent strategy. We call it laddering in, but I would eliminate any fundamental ideas on the coin.....as you can see, it's "pegged to a dollar" fundamental idea does not hold water.....at all. I agree that buying at a high point is not the most prudent way to buy in, but the same TA that said it would get to where it is now, also says it's going higher. So I would then ask, what has changed since the last fundamental element did not hold true? Only the price...which is exactly what the TA is based on. If the TA runs the numbers WAY above what fundamentals suggested is possible, why would you then turn to fundamentals to see where it is going next?
Fundamentally SBD can be whatever price it wants to be at. The mechanism to keep it at $1 is fundamentally flawed. Once we know that, then we know that factually SBD is not pegged to the $. USDT is pegged to the dollar. This is why SBD typically floats around $1.00
TA does not take into account how useful SBD is.
Fundamentals do, everything beyond the fundamental is price action.
If there is no fundamental reason that people should have SBD, then you should be more careful because the hammer can drop once the sentiment goes away.
But if fundamentally steem was growing way way faster then it could issue SBD, and the need to spend SBD was very very high, then you know that the sentiment is unlikely to reverse.
let me just repeat this, there is no fundamental basis for SBD to be $1.00. There is no mechanism to pegg it to the $. The mechanism only encourages SBD to not be below $1.00. Therefore it can be as high as it wants. but people shouldn't be a fool and ignore the question of why is the demand for SBD so high.
This is about trading for me personally, so I don't see any foolishness in using TA to have a forecast that allows a coin you own to rise 18x it's previous value. Then I sell it. I don't need to know anything about it actually, not just not knowing why it is in demand. I actively ignore news, rumors, and explanations like this....because they mean nothing to the value I just pulled out of this coin.
There are coins that are valuable and useful.
There are coins that are valuable and useless.
There are coins that are worthless and useful.
There are coins that are worthless and useless.
The first half of the first two statements is all that really matters when actively trading.
I will stick to coins that I believe are undervalued. This one may have potential in the TA department, but I wouldn't want to get stuck holding the bag on this one. I'm more of a long term guy, but Haejin's been teaching me a lot.
Your comment was particularily insightful as well!
We need both!
Co-mingling this level of technical analysis and fundamentals is not recommended. Of course, do as you will.....but we have been over this many many many many many times.....and the technical analysis done by Haejin trumps all fundamental arguments as to why a coin can or can not achieve a certain price. I'm sorry, it just does.....it's proven and solidified in the blockchain right now to be looked back on.
great answers.do you have telegram or are you n steemit chat?
are you asking me? im on discord. whats steemit chat?
Don't over complicate what is staring you in the face my friend.
I can't tell you how many times I've mathematically calculated something should not stand, yet it does and i know my math is correct, and i know that my math does not match reality. And that is because of how you model the degrees of freedom.
The very fact that you said you shouldn't mingle technical and fundamental indicates that you have a different level of degree of freedom in your understanding of how things work.
You have your reason for saying why (and I'd be glad to read it if you send me a link to it if you can get to it easily), but what it all boils down to is how many variables you do not take into account. The fact is that there are hundreds of variables in the crypto world that is unaccounted for, and you can only process so much information before you don't consider your model to be realistic.
The last statement you made there is exactly the point. When we measure sentiment based on price action, there is reasoning to that. Price action is one step removed from Sentiment. Anything else comes after that. People often say sell the news. That's because news is old as soon as it's written, which creates chasing. The news attempts to explain the price movement. Sentiment actually drives the price movement. Now whether you want to believe that is a measurable factor is completely up to you.
I didn't used to believe it, but as I learned more about it, and I watched the news and press releases and government mandates come in over and over to justify the measurement of sentiment....AFTER the fact....I couldn't ignore it.
Sentiment drives the price, thus price movement is the FIRST indicator, and everything else is trying to fill in the blanks. That doesn't mean TA is meant to nail every number every time...although it often does. It just means that you are working with the element most closely related to the actual price movement. Fewer variables to botch the forecast with....no emotion attached, no personal connection to sway what the price movement tells you.
How it is measured can be considered quite esoteric....but what matters to me is what works. I don't need to assign a reason why it works if it works, although there is a reason that I believe to be true. As humans, it is very difficult to release the need for explanation.
The TA we perform here is based on two techniques. And we do believe that News or Events Shall Arrive to Justify the Forecast, and NEVER the other way around.
The success of this blog is not due to someone selling dreams to people or a great amount of lucky projections. It is due to Haejin being very very experienced (through trying many techniques and having tonnages of failure), and then developing an approach to analysis that is successfully projecting price pathways with a percentage that is above 90%. I know of no other method that has ever produced better results.
As a side note....just because I apply a very specific technique certainly does not reflect on my ability to comprehend or to be aware of any degree of freedom of understanding. It is an intentional move based on positive results.
Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish. What does this mean? It means it's not advice nor recommendation to either buy or sell anything! It's only meant for use as informative or entertainment purposes.**
It means exactly what it says. Any more questions kid?
This one in particular has been very entertaining ;p
I think crypto maniacs that buy every growing coin will not even try to analyze it.
It is a token....a tradeable token on the market, not just a debt instrument on this website.
Yes, it is tradeable. Maybe I am getting philosophical here, bonds have markets too. Blockchains produce tokens which are more like stocks - they are assets, claims of ownership. The SBD is a bond, a promise to pay. It is basically a piece of paper, without the paper. But of course backed by the full faith and functioning of the steem blockchain.
Correct, just as Smart Media Tokens will be.....a promise to the user here, but valuable to others as an asset. Check out the LAToken.com project.....it stretches the mind on what value really is, and what ownership really is....it allows ANYTHING to be tokenized....all based on contracts between the purchasers and the one who owns the Estate, art, jewerly, or whatever......but once contracted, the buyers can present their token ownership to the market in the hopes of getting a better price than they paid, while the other party is hoping the value gained over time will allow them to profit as well. It is truly what the future of tokens will look like at some point.....well now, but widespread at some point.
If they really wanted it to stay within the system as a bond, it never would be introduced to the market.
It's incredible.
What about steem???
This is from 3 days ago but I think it still stands. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/steem-vs-zen-vs-sbd-fractals-bullish
$14
Wow for real? Why wouldn't it just break down after this at first glance meaningless pump? (enlighten me)
Why would it break down? and what would make the price growth meaningless?
haej check GCR u would like this chart
But isn't SBD 6 ish now? Am I missing something
Thank you for the analysis on this one. I was waiting for the @haejin seal of approval.
I started taking my payouts 50/50...now I am excited that I did.
I had a decent week which means that my payout is pretty good.
Thanks for all your work.
A bit far fetched.
I hear that alot. But then my forecasts get proven.
Lol, I am watching this one. And if you are calling this one right, which seems to be, then that's pretty insane.
Love it @haejin
$31? Wow
Your post has been resteemed to my 2800 followers
Get a free resteem using the Power Resteem Service #26
WHAT A CALL!!
This one baffles me, but I will listen to @haejin, our new crypto analysis master. Remember everybody, the call is just an educated guess based on the information at hand, but on this one I am rolling the dice! :)
I just feel like it would be so hard for it to happen. With all the selling pressure from bloggers.
Just WOW!!
very interesting indeed. I'd much prefer to see it switch and have steem go to $31 where it should be.
I am confused so should I buy this expecting the price to rise, I still sees people saying it is not meant to be at this kind of price!
This still valid?
how does one sign up for the 50/50 pay our for SBD? i havent seen that option before
When you make a post or a comment, it is a selection box near the text box in the bottom right corner. You only get one chance to choose, so choose wisely.
oh i see that, its default at 50/50 for me
Thats great tips one.. I gain knowledge in your post...
Hello haejin, thanx for the good infos.
I'd like to ask you that approximately when will the SBD Break out of the silence?
either up or down.
do you estimate any period?
Is this a "head and shoulders" we are seeing forming right now??? Or is it just me seeing it?
The chart is Steem Dollars to US Dollars!