Readers of my blog have seen multiple instances of me identifying and discussing Head and Shoulders patterns in both bullish and bearish scenarios. Below is a probable scenario for Bitcoin if the prior EW count plays out.
For H&S Top pattern, it needs to occur in an uptrend (check!). Volume needs to confirm where the heights of the volume for LS and RS individually can't exceed the volume for the Head (developing). I've labeled the volume confirmations with red hats.
I've noticed that in cryptos, chart patterns work very well! Elliott Wave counts also work very well and in combination with chart patterns, it's even better. So, the reliability of TA for cryptos has alot more confidence than what I've seen with equities. The reason is that equities are highly manipulated by the Central Banks and the Plunge Protection Team (PPT). They hold and use an unlimited credit card to explosively buy up index call options to spark a declining market to turn. Imagine $45 Bil worth of index call options being bought...yes, it turns declining markets. Alas, it's still illegal for the PPT to outright buy stocks....but heck, this can and will be changed when needed; just like the Japanese Central Bank. But since Central Banks and PPT can't get their grubby fingers into cryptos, the natural waves of supply and demand are more pure. Having said that, it makes me heed more seriously to crypto chart patterns to better position myself.
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Legal Mumbo Jumbo: This is only my opinion, make of it what you wish.
Thanks for sharing
Hi Haejin - I would also love to get your thoughts on Bitcoin Cash. Thanks for all the work you are doing here, I also noticed the strong H&S pattern forming tonight(tonight in US) and had a bad feeling about BTC...
Please use only to augment you DD. Here is update on Bitcoin Cash analysis:
https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@haejin/bitcoin-cash-update-break-that-line
Thanks a ton.
Thanks!!
hi haejin, can you do an update on bitcoin cash condition ?
I am buying some on pull-back around 3800, I think it got some room to go up before it retraces. You think it will crash ?
This is exactly what I was looking at as well just a little bit ago. Longer term charts giving huge indication that this will be confirmed.
Great minds think alike!
Central Banks and the PPT suck!
It's a legalized criminal cartel that targets to steal 2% from the populous hidden as inflation but it's really taxation without representation.
Taxation is theft.
Taxation is a option not mandatory under International Law for a human being.
I am a follower and agree with your analysis. That said, let me ask you 2 questions that I just gave another Steemian.
I am seeing headlines saying "get out of cash" and Bitcoin analysis like this one call for a sharp drop. So, what are we to exit TO, precious metals?
Since the USD has been falling and could crash, how can this be taken into account the Bitcoins technical analysis?
PS I sent you 1.0 Ltc.
I don't think USD is bad at all for now. It's still the safe haven. I also think that SPX will perhaps hit 3,000.....yes, 3,000 in 6-9 months. If USD concerns you, perhaps an SPX index fund to hold you cash? I personally am selling 2/3 of my Bitcoins in a laddered format and keeping it as dry powder to buy at better prices. I have 55% profit on Bitcoins from prior bottom....not too shabby and gonna take the profits.
You're assuming that USD and Bitcoins are correlated. Their cycles might overlap briefly, but they are not correlated 1:1. I take Bitcoin EW counts alone and separate from others. Many think bonds and stocks are reverse correlated but charts can show you they often move together.
Also, I don't decide or pay attention to headlines. I rarely see cnbc and only to get a quick price quote. I do my own DD and don't care what others say or what their opinions are. That has been my saving grace!
I do think that Gary Savage and I think alike!
https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/