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RE: Bitcoin on the verge of a major move higher? Richard Wyckoff says yes!

in #bitcoin7 years ago (edited)

Even if this scenario plays out, there's a still the question of how low the "spring" will dip before moving on to phase D.

January 13, 2015 (around the first time that I heard about bitcoin) was the low, or "selling climax" (SC), of the correction from the Mt. Gox bubble. The range on that daily candle from opening to the low was over 32%!

You can see from the images that I provided (the upper is a daily chart and the lower is a weekly) that the price action wasn't exactly textbook Wyckoff. For instance, the spring never reached lower than the selling climax, but it followed the blueprint for the most part.

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(right click + view image for enlarged image)

I share this only to demonstrate how this type of scenerio has already played out in bitcoin before and, wouldn't you know it, it was right after a price bubble correction!

But the point I want to make is that the spring is often a second "selling climax" event. So, you might have instances of huge percent selloffs in a single day or series of just a few days before price picks back up to move on to late phase C and early phase D.

I don't claim to be an expert at Wyckoff TA, but I do use it a bit and I've seen enough real life examples of markets that meet the guidelines to qualify as a Wyckoff "accumulation event" to know that fitting the guidelines, even as far up as late Phase B aren't very helpful when it comes to trying to estimate the bottom in terms of price (time, yes, pretty close, but price is a different story).

It's pretty much impossible to predict what type of a selling climax might (or might not) come with that last dip below the support zone. Of course, it's also not possible to know whether it will play out like Wyckoff's example at all after phase B. That's TA for you :)

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Of course, though finding the exact low was never the point of this. The point was that there may be some light at the end of the tunnel, even if there still might be some short term pain ahead first. :)

Oh, I know. I'm just speaking to the people who might be trying to catch the bottom. I was one of those guys in the 2015 chart that I showed and I actually did a decent job (catching the bottom)...luckily.