Bill bought AMZN when it was worth $100 a share, then he sold it for $5 when it crashed, don't be like Bill.
Back in the late 90's a tech company emerged on the scene that was going to change the world.
They were going to make all other brick and mortar retail stores obsolete by using this new technology called the internet to reach buyers and sellers everywhere.
Even from the comfort of their own living room!
For this reason, the stock shot up.
Climbing higher and higher and higher.
Starting from a base around $3-$5 in 1998, climbing all the way to over $110 in 1999.
(Source: ~~~ embed:964436734477066242) twitter metadata:Y3J5cHRvX3JhbmR8fGh0dHBzOi8vdHdpdHRlci5jb20vY3J5cHRvX3JhbmQvc3RhdHVzLzk2NDQzNjczNDQ3NzA2NjI0Mil8 ~~~
All this because it was based on an exciting new technology that promised to change the way we do... just about everything.
After the excitement wore off, and it was realized that it would still take years before this new technology was able to be used the way many envisioned, the price of the stock plummeted.
Does that kind of scenario sound at least somewhat familiar to something that might be going on today?
I think it sounds very familiar.
Bitcoin is not Amazon in any way shape or form. They are completely different things, that is not what I am trying to compare here.
I am trying to compare the psychology and sentiment that often surrounds new technological innovations and the effects it has on prices.
Both Bitcoin and Amazon are/were based on an exciting new technology that hopes to disrupt just about everything we do.
For that reason prices shot way up, and are/were currently very much in "bubble territory".
That sounds very much like what is going on with Bitcoin today.
Yes the technology is revolutionary, yes the potential is there, yes it solves a lot of problems, however the technology is still not there for real utility beyond a digital store of value, YET.
For that reason, I would not be surprised to see history repeat in regards to what happened with the dotcom bubble.
At some point there is likely to be a reckoning that takes prices way down.
Not just of bitcoin, but prices across the board.
I am not sure what will be the trigger, but if history is any indicator, this is something that should be expected as new technology often goes through boom and bust cycles much like what we saw with Amazon.
Prices tend to get way ahead of themselves as people think of all the possible applications only to see prices eventually be reigned back in to better align with reality. Then, eventually, the real technological innovations emerge and much more accurate pricing results.
If Bitcoin is following a similar pattern to what we saw with Amazon and the dotcom bubble, what might happen from here?
If the past is any indicator, we could see Bitcoin still make two new highs before this price reckoning takes place.
This is a chart of the Bitcoin price action overlayed on the Amazon chart from the late 90's:
(Source: ~~~ embed:963554149366460417) twitter metadata:YnVzaW5lc3N8fGh0dHBzOi8vdHdpdHRlci5jb20vYnVzaW5lc3Mvc3RhdHVzLzk2MzU1NDE0OTM2NjQ2MDQxNyl8 ~~~
Not saying that prices will follow exactly this pattern, but there is the possibility.
Again, I would like to make this clear, I am not comparing Bitcoin to Amazon per say, I am comparing similar price action, psychology, and sentiment within a new technological innovation.
What is being compared is not as important as the psychological component that is reflected in terms of price on the charts.
What is the take away in all of this?
There is likely to be a major price reckoning coming, probably even greater than what we have seen thus far.
If you are sitting on healthy profits, don't be afraid to take some along the way so that you can buy back in when things aren't looking so hot.
Don't be the guy that sells AFTER prices are already down 95%.
If history unfolds in a similar fashion, we could still see two new highs on Bitcoin before this happens.
And finally, and most importantly...
After falling from $110 down to $5 again, AMZN is now trading for $1,500 per share. So, don't be afraid to just HODL. ;)
Stay informed my friends.
Follow me: @jrcornel
poor Bill!
Anyone selling now is going to be really missing out a year from now when the rest of us are Riding High.....
The upgrade of selling and buying is trading. Trading is using TA knowledge to predict the movement of prices. and then buy low and sell high.
A similar point was made at an investment conference I went to last summer, though it was in the context of advising investors to hold on to their good stocks and not give up on them too quickly. The advice is even more applicable to the crypto markets which are much more volatile than the stock markets.
While the corrections can be pretty scary, each time the crypto markets have come back and made new highs. We're not at that point yet following the most recent correction but have bounced back quite nicely and I'm optimistic the markets will continue to go higher.
I think the main keys to being able to HODL during a nasty correction are the following:
Don't invest money in cryptos you can't afford to lose. If you're gambling with the rent money or money you need to pay for your kids' education, you will become a nervous wreck and have trouble sleeping at night.
Do your research and invest only in cryptos you understand and that offer a good value proposition. Most cryptos will eventually be worth nothing, but if you're confident you're holding solid cryptos with good teams and legitimately favorable prospects, that provides confidence that their value will recover and go higher despite a correction.
Diversify among a basket of good crypto assets. You don't have a crystal ball and can't know with certainty which cryptos will remain standing like Amazon when the dust settles. Spread your bets. If one or two of your investments become the next Amazon, that will more than make up for your losers and provide you with life-changing wealth.
Great comment!
Thank you. I really believe blockchain/distributed ledger technology will transform our economy at least as much as the internet did and will offer people a chance to earn life-changing wealth in the coming years, but people need to smart about the way they make their investments. At some point, just buying random cryptos will not work anymore and people will lose their money if they buy into scams.
Bravo comment!
For me there is a simple rule how you can save yourself from selling after 95% lost: Never Never Never ever buy with money you can't spare. Thanks for that high quality article. I love it if you compare history with presence.
Keep going!
That is very good advice. If you are already using money you can afford to lose, likely no chance you lock in a 95% loss.
Exactly. That's the Point. Good conclusion!
Exactly, and never sell at a loss, especially if that loss is massive. Might as well hold to the end at that point.
Great Advice! Any long term holdings should be money you are willing to lose 100%. All these people selling are either traders or the ones that put too much money in crypto. If you believe in the tech, just hold. Otherwise, trade and buy back at lower prices. Though, if you are new to trading that'll be hard. I don't advise anyone to trade unless they want to learn to trade professionally. Almost all new traders lose money. Takes years to develop the skills needed to be profitable. Crypto is a good time to start learning though ONLY after the bear trend ends.
JRcrypto
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This might mean that Bitcoin has not seen the worst of it's days. Blockchain and it's underlying concepts are still a new technology and it still hasn't matured as a product for the average user. And even though we experienced a bubble last year and some minor corrections, a serious market crash might be somewhere arond the corner
please tell me BTCUSD next target up said in 3 to 6 months
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Bitcoin and blockchain aren't going anywhere,
We've just survived one of the largest crypto crashes in history and while prices might still go down more from here short term, the future is bright, in fact I just invested $1k into Steemit.
Btw in case I haven't made myself clear, I'm bullish.
Haha, as am I. Glad you decided to invest into Steem and Steemit! It is one of the few platforms out there where you can Keyboard Mine your coins. ;)
I like the keyboard mine analogy! Very true!
Bitcoin is slow and consumes alot of power it has no future in reality. Whole blockchain consumes more power than Denmark. Unless they change it drastically it has no future, also transaction fees are ridiculous witch beats the point of its existence as well.
It will be interesting to see what happens when/if the Lightning network gets implemented.
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Buying in $100 and selling in $5 is the worst decision you can make in any trading whether it's crypto or stocks or anthing.
yeah,holding would be more appealing
Agree that the initial excitement surrounding a new technology inflates the market price but once the development catches up and the tech shows real utility it's a done deal. The Blockchain no doubt is following the dot.com trend and will prove itself to be legit despite all of the naysayers.
Upvoted and new follower here! Thanks
Fantastic article! Its almost unbelievable how closely BTC price follows the AMZN price in the smaller details on the initial up move.
Honestly I dont doubt that BTC could fall to $900, and potentially keep falling until it can actually integrate into the world. Right now Its nothing that it needs to be as a currency. Its slow and its expensive to transfer. Two of the main things a currency has to do it is a million miles from doing!
The hype could indeed be over for now, but as you say its certainly not the end!
Check out @cryptobroye for further Tech Analysis and simplistic and effective trading strategies. Maybe we can be of some help to each other :)
Stay strong and hold on until things turn around. I can't wait to see what the prices will be this December for BTC and the rest of the Altcoins that survive. Exciting. Upvoted and Resteemed by @cryptoryno33
Great point. Upvoted. And good to research and understand the fundamental value of what you are holding.
For instance, this fundamental metric that I blogged about here seems to correlate a lot with BTC prices just about as much as Elliot wave analysis and many other TA methods:
https://steemit.com/cryptocurrencies/@kenraphael/this-single-metric-seems-to-correlate-more-with-cryptoasset-values-the-past-two-weeks-than-most-predictive-methods
Would appreciate your thoughts and an upvote as well if you like.
Every mistakes of others is for us not to fall into the same mistakes but to make us wise.
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:D I am plankton. I know nothink. But trying to read this article direct my little mind in to writers psicology. And I thinks this very good post..
it does not have to be harmed
after strict follow-up
and it's nice when we take control of the market
informative article
Sometimes you just got to have them strong hands and HODL!
great analyzing sir.
Thanks for the massive information .
Keep it up.
great analysis.... you have to do too much hard work to complete this analysis.. tnx a lot to give us such a informative news.
Thanks for your advice. Would be cool on any bad times.
OMG!!! Thinking of Bill just makes me want to cry. I am a looooong term believer and Hodl'er myself and I wouldn't be shocked by anything in the crypto market. I made a some money on the recent surge up around the holidays, it was nice because I was able to take that money and move some into other projects that I believe in. All of a sudden the market took the huge hit through the end of January and I was looking at losses all through my portfolio. Now, if I didn't believe in Crypto then maybe I would be weak handed and cut my losses but instead I look at the lows as opportunities to strengthen my positions. I can't imagine what Bill was thinking by Selling. Damn dude!! You're already out 95% so you might as well just stand pat and ride it out. Can't get worse. However, he made it much worse for himself and now has to live with the Why's and What if's or his decision. I know that for me I will be digging my heels in through whatever this market brings us over the next little while. It might be a rocky ride but in the end if we all just stand strong we will be standing together at the top of the mountain with smiles on our faces.
Haha yes, that is the hope! :)
it wudnt be bad delisting to all those people, I hate to say it, I scooped up lots of your #FUN when you dumped it :D... i did warn u
excellent information dear friend @jrcornel, for these custiones we must be very cautious with our investments, invest only what we can assume as lost, however you also have to have a bit of pasience to the bearish trends, do not desperately leave to sell our investment because the value has fallen.
Thank you very much for sharing this information
I wish you a good weekend
Great catch with this chart! Awesome. Resteemed, upvoted, and followed.
I've got no problem with the HODL mentality, for me, it's trying not to fomo in on too many shitcoins!
Great one @jrcornel
thank you for this wonderful sharing of psychological comparisons and sentiments that often surround new technological innovations and their impact on price. Today's bitcoin are up on how we should anticipate value ??
we must learn from past experiences to improve the future.
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U welcome guys
Welcome to join steemit
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@ jrcornel投资是一个人各方面，特别是对智慧的考量，最好的的办法用自己的闲钱去投资自己了解认可的项目，并锁仓几十年，奇迹定会在未来发生。
我们相信数字加密货币的到来，因为相信期待美好！
Good work,good post.
luar biasa, saya juga ingin.
I also think the same that if you have bitcoin just HODL it as it is most lokely that bitcoin price will soon shoot up to new highs.
love the crypto world so much. always so much to consider. i was just scouring articles, saw this, ended up following you!
Interesting that you mentioned Amazon in your comparison to bitcoin. Yes, Amazon revolutionized retailing, and now they are starting some big waves in a different area. So, your idea to HODL is probably not bad at all applied to AMZN (I actually bought). I'm also holding to bitcoin! Here's my post from last week with more details: https://steemit.com/news/@gadrian/amazon-takes-bold-move-on-the-chessboard
A good Business is the best art. And you must never invest without proper consent and proper knowledge. Nd selling the shares at lost is never an option that's why it's needed to have proper knowledge about everything related to the field. And never should you buy business with money you can't afford to lose. Thank you @jrcornel
Wow. Great article about what to expect. I think I agree with you on your projections here. If we continue to believe in what we all know the future can be, we can them avoid so much of the volatility but still there will be rough bumps ahead. Hodl.
I heard it takes 15 years for a new technology to go main stream. Bitcoin started in 2009 .
interesting.
Definitely agree with you but Amazon wasn’t they only one! Apple was barely a $4 billion company and now it is the world’s most valuable company. The point is that no matter what type of market we are in, there will be winners and losers. This emphasizes the importance of doing your homework and sticking with the thesis until something fundamentally changes. If nothing changes, just HODL! I just happened to write a similar post on my blog (feel free to let me know your thoughts)!
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I completely agree with this. Investing is almost all psychology and the value comes from the perceived worth from the public. That is why crypto is very similar to the traditional financial industry. For instance, bad news or FUD causes people to panic sell in crypto and in the stock market.
Anyways, I hope crytpo has same outcome as Amazon has had.
Check out my page to learn more about Achain! Soon it will take over Ethereum and NEO as top Blockchain platform for Dapps.
hehe gotta love the dont be like bill memes
having that long term faith :)
This is interesting!
Please kindly upvote my post
https://steemit.com/introduceyourself/@anthonio/introducing-anthonio
In its original form
Interesting chart - the Amazon price shooting straight up again after the first crash. Can happen I guess.. would be great to sell at $20.000.
very deep analysis. a lot conclusions is still too early to draw.
it is still the time to buy some BTC this is just a correction like the previous ones, and if someone said that BTC already accumulate a huge capital, than think again they already said it wont go higher than 2000$ and they were wrong.
this is the best time to invest in cryptocurrencies !
Your pleased me, and also pleased as you conduct the blog.I wish you to blow off a large jackpot.Successes to you and good day