Looking at long term statistics, it still seems we should be going down to about 2100-2500 USD, but in short term we should be going even more upward closer to 4400 USD.
Average exchange rate since January 2016. Going even earlier wouldn't have changed the results much as the highest exchange rate was so much more than the average. Bitcoin exchange rate was pretty much over the average from April 2016 to November 2018 and below the average after that.
If you draw the average as moving exponentially weighted we are currently at the top of the average curve and that means the rate should go down.
Looking at long term statistics, it still seems we should be going down to about 2100-2500 USD, but in short term we should be going even more upward closer to 4400 USD.
What long term statistics are you basing this off of?
Average exchange rate since January 2016. Going even earlier wouldn't have changed the results much as the highest exchange rate was so much more than the average. Bitcoin exchange rate was pretty much over the average from April 2016 to November 2018 and below the average after that.
If you draw the average as moving exponentially weighted we are currently at the top of the average curve and that means the rate should go down.