Hello @chris-yoder! How much is the psychological impact of the action over that CME, where the pattern of forward-month futures prices is not bullish? See here please: https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lestatisticien/bitcoin-will-not-show-another-explosive-price-jump-before-june-2018-cme-futures-forecast .
I am not claiming that the CME action is driving the spot market price pattern all by itself; but there is a ton of literature out there (from outside the crypto market) which says that keeping an eye on the futures trading is a good idea.
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I am honestly not informed enough to make a cogent response beyond this: this week is not the end of bitcoin or cryptocurrencies.
Hello and thanks @chris-yoder . May I invite you to check out my responses to the comments of @ab12345 and @safetony at https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@lestatisticien/will-bitcoin-surge-upward-again-in-the-near-future-cme-futures-price-curves-say-no . My responses support your comment. Let’s pursue the dialogue, please.
I will but later tonight because I am at work which is not conducive to a thoughtful discussion.
I don't think that the bullish CME's are wholly the cause for this drop nor do I think that if the bullish CME's were the only news to affect bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies over the past week that they would have driven the market as far down as it has fallen.
However, I do include the fact that bitcoin started being traded in a futures market as one of the causes of the dip.
Apologies @chris-yoder, if I left the impression that I was attributing the drop to what was happening in the futures market. I was looking at the futures data in terms of what the futures traders’ main sentiment might be concerning the price pattern over the January to June period of 2018.
More generally, it is an interesting subject to get into what caused a drop that took place in the past (for Coin X or Stock Y), given that almost always multiple variables are at play in generating a particular outcome in terms of a price change pattern of a certain sort.
It is extremely common, as you know, for writers to jump behind a change and quickly pronounce what was its cause. Their analysis is usually premature and oversimplified (IMHO), and I have come to the conclusion that their personal incomes require that they produce these “analytical articles” whenever a big price change takes place.
You will see a related discussion in my article here: https://www.marketstatsanalytics.com/marketspeaktrans.html Here I take apart the media discussion of the August 2015 flash crash in the stock market.