Hi Cryptovestor,
I definitely think Elliott Wave is worth gaining a rudimentary understanding of and even more so, the Fibonacci retracements. Let me explain.
In 2000, I first became interested in trading stocks and shares - the dot.com boom and bust. At first I couldn't help but make money each day, but then as a newbie, I was taken to the cleaners, when the bubble burst. It was an ugly and painful process that taught me a valuable lesson.
From there, over a period of 12 years, I moved into trading just six FX pairs and occasionally gold and crude oil. My trades were all derived from technical analysis (charts).
I used many different indicators on candlestick charts, as well as Fibonacci retracements and extensions and Elliott Wave counts. I viewed monthly, weekly, daily, 4 hourly, hourly, 30 min, 15 min, 5 min and even 1 min charts for each of the six currency pairs I traded.
Buying and selling pressures change according to which time frame you view. A strong selling situation on an hourly chart maybe running into an even stronger support level on the 4 hourly and daily chart. You just needed to be aware of the fractal nature of buying and selling pressures to determine the dominant ones at play in the moment of taking positions.
Remaining calm and detached is necessary quality of a trader. Streaks of winning might convince you that you have cracked this market thing and that you are invincible. That is a poor mindset for your trading account. So too is holding off a trade when your signals say “go”, but your last 5 Losers tell you to sit this one out. You need a strategy and a low enough account exposure per trade so as neither to worry you, nor bankrupt you. I set a limit of 1.5-2.0% maximum fund loss per trade.
Decide your entry point and your stop loss level, so you can set your trade size in two parts. Set your first and second targets. If the first target is banked, move your stop loss to your entry level, so it cannot lose and let it run to the second target, or stop out with neither a loss or gain on the second half.
My view is we are going to be correcting the entire move up of the 2017 rise. That is where you need to place your Fibonacci retracements - the starting low to the high.
Still not a fan of EW or Fib, but I know a lot of people use them with great success so I try not to criticize too much. I still think there are more losers than winners among those who try, but there are very clearly some people who consistently win so I can't talk it down definitely because I never know who those winners are beforehand.
Delayed, so free report from Elliott Wave Interactive.
The amateur can sometimes see a clear 5 wave pattern as on last year’s Bitcoin price action. It can just alert you to the idea a change of direction is close.
https://ewminteractive.com/bitcoin-bloodbath-ten-days-making
You are correct in terms of fundamental analysis, however, you are missing one key factor that differentiates this market from traditional stock/forex markets as you mentioned in your experience. There is ample exuberance in this market as proven time and time again. Just as you think it is about to end, a bullish run hits your right where you least expect it (I got burned when the market "crashed" from 11k-9k as I, just like you was expecting the same thing). Be careful my friend, this isn't your typical market.
Thanks, but I am no longer a trader. Too many hours sitting watching screens, eating badly caused me some health issues. I buy and hold, occasionally skimming gains these days. All my money in cryptos now is profit, no original capital.
Great to hear. Congratulations!