I don't think loan balances adequately explain the movement. Since, as you noted, there is a 300 day maturity period. I would expect that loans would mature on a rolling basis. The daily amount of loan liquidations in BCC is the the original loan BCC amount times the price ratio:
Eq 1: LoansPaidToday = VolumeLoansInBCC300DaysAgo X (Price300DaysAgo/PriceToday)
The percent change from a given days loan payouts should be close to:
Eq 2: LoansPaidToday / SUMxFrom1To300(VolumeLoansInBCCxDaysAgo)
Eq 2 should be less than 1% at around 0.34%( 1/300) , or even less given growing loan volume and increasing BCC price per the equations above.
The remainders not paid upon maturity {LoansPaidToday - VolumeLoansInBCC300DaysAgo} belong to Bitconnect, and could be collected in "sweeps" transactions to larger wallets. This could explain how the drawdown occurred, but does not explain the rapid repopulating of the wallets. Also, the change in addresses corresponds to movements in BCC/USD and BCC/BTC, which is consistent with a trading utilization(either fictional or real), but is inconsistent with fixed term debt instruments, whose operating characteristics are price agnostic.
I agree with your thinking here. When I first started to explore the BCC blockchain I was looking to do that. If the data in the BCC chain is honest. We should be able to see 1)the date every loan started. 2) approximate amount of every loan. 3) daily interest paid on every loan. From that we should also be able to check our figures with daily interest payments. (since these vary accross the loans day to day, -but should be consistent for the same day. (with the exception of you get more interest if you invest more). We would be able to know, when every loan was made. What interest is paid, if that interest is reinvested or paid out. We could conglomerate the data knowing every single customer and every single payment in and out. We could then predict the exact day it will blow up! I got frustrated and gave up before I got to that data. I think the data in the Bitcoin blockchain is a lot more "dependable." If you really want to bust this thing open I think we should look there. I think i could get to it, but it would take too much work. I don't have all the right tools, time effort. After I spent a couple of hours I started to notice things and then it started to make sense. Let me mention it here so you -and anyone else investigating knows to look for it. They purposefully complicate the data with false payments to confuse us. You have to find a few real payment, then go back and evaluate the other payments. By ID each one temporarily as real or fake and moving up and down the chain you can see the patterns. You can confirm what you are seeing Via BitConnect You tube Videos (This is the withdrawl transaction. This is this amount) and you can
then start to figure out other accounts. Generally, I saw about 5 fake transactions for every 1 real transaction. I believe every account has multiple addresses as well. (the account I was looking at had several "interest payments" but then they stopped for two weeks... appearing exactly two weeks previously. Anyway, good luck!