Over 2 weeks ago I talked about some key levels on BTC in a post entitled Let’s be realistic. Price action looks to be confirming those levels, and today I want to “zoom in” on those levels and add yet another level that could well be holding up.
The $9,750 level was briefly broken, but ultimately price fell back below. What the bulls want to see in BTC and their other favorite Alts is a bullish retracement that holds between the 61.8 and the 50 percent levels.
Bitcoin is currently finding support at the 50% retrace of the entire move off of its April secondary higher low, the curling higher 50 DMA and the lower Bollinger Band. Yesterday’s candle was a near doji right at the just mention support. Today, as of this writing, price has regained the 38.2 retrace and bested yesterday’s high after having made a higher low.
As I mentioned in my Let’s be realistic post, this is a very good time to be watching how your favorite Alts are behaving in comparison. Mine are all pretty much mirroring BTC’s confluence of support, with some performing a little better, and some a little worse. Curiously, STEEM and SYS, two of my biggest favorites, are doing the worst, short term, briefly having fallen below that support. Go figure.
Bullish above, bearish below the confluence of 50-61.8 Fibs, 50 DMA and lower Boll confluence of support.
Read the "The Dos and Don’ts" here if you're not aware of my rules.
For example if you look at bitcoin and compare it with previous years I definitely see how the cycle is potentially playing out again. It’s rounded bottom forming, or reversed H&S, we just have to be patient. I don’t do wave counting, but I have been watching it, especially “Ronnie Fattal” he does gold mostly and since I’m invested in gold I watch him some times. Right now I noticed some people who use this method for crypto saying there is a wave coming which will cause the crypto to go a bit lower and than to explode. From my technical perspective I see formation of rounded bottom or H&R in most cases and when you take a look at MACD, it’s so tight, it feels like it wants to shoot up. It’s getting very tight week by week. My prediction is we consolidate for another few months with bumps and dumps based on history. We may as well be forming cup & handle. It all depends if we bounce at some point and break 10K along with 200MA even though the neck of the right shoulder could be even higher now, perhaps 10.5K. The recent sell off volume concerns me, it’s a huge followed by two small green candles which means it’s consolidating before another big move. It may sound frustrating, but I think we are heading a bit lower from now on, since I still have not seen this famous selloff when everyone starts thinking “it goes to zero”. It may not ever happen as well, which I’m hoping for. The sentiment after few days of selloffs is sideways. I can see bolinger band being pushed down. I hope 🤞 Im wrong. I hope underperforming Steem and SYS will eventually over-perform.
I'm seeing pretty much the same thing across the board . . . except for the possibility for much more downside. While it's possible, I think surprises will be to the upside. It's not guaranteed by any means, just that I think the odds are better for more upside from here than downside. That all having been said, I could just as well be wrong as right.
That’s exactly my point. Everyone has this feeling, some may think it will go down, some sideways and some up. We all could be right short term, but one thing is for sure, long term it’s to the upside with corrections. I’m certain you know that corrections are very healthy for any market. Can you imagine if crypto market went up only without any corrections? I don’t think any of us would be able to ride it all the way up, we are humans and in most cases we subconsciously refuse to become rich that fast. I guarantee you most of us would sell it half way and then buy it back all the way at the top. Unfortunately at the end most people loose money when all is done. If crypto rises 10x higher or more, I have no idea what I will do if I’m still in. I will make that decision once we get there, as of now I’m holding with some extra cash ready to invest if we get oversold. Other than that, I’m really happy with what I have.
I say a bullish next week.
Consensus 2018 is almost upon us and historically the prices have risen to great extent by the influence and positivity of the conference. So this should be interesting to observe as Bulls and bears fight it out and bulls just may have the edge
That could very well be a catalyst.
BTC is showing a less fluctuation when comparing to other crypto! Personally I like this stability and I wish the BULL is awaiting now. The seasonal trend is up to come! So in next couple of months BTC might rise and can be shown a high fluctuation as well!
STEEM showed a worst trend! But I have faith on it! I think it might reach atleast $40 in upcoming months with SMT!@cryptographic,
Cheers~
Everyone is struggling now, but remember, the best time to buy is when you're scared!
There is this old saying:
This recent selloff could be tight to potential fraud or a rumor of fraud in Korea along with other things. However, in this kind of market only the patient once survive. Forget about selloff, about fraud. Just think about what internet went through before and during dot com bubble. Also short therm trading is almost impossible in this environment. You would have to be emotionless robot to break even. Long therm is the answer to success when it comes to investment. Because once it starts shooting up, it will be so quick and unexpected that it will be impossible to get on this speed train if you try to day-trade. This moment will happen once the institutions realize the crypto especially bitcoin is here to stay. It will be flood of crypto ETF’s on stock market. I saw it already a few times and always missed it, because I wasn’t in already, I wasn’t patient enough. I learned my lesson and now I buy whenever the dip comes and hold. However, I only buy whatever I can afford to lose. It keeps me sleep at night. That’s really important. Right now I’m not buying anything for the time being, I’m pretty much set. You are right we are at the support level and unless we break $10 000 level we are stuck for the time being.
Absolutely what I think as well: it's a long term super bull that will payoff extremely well for the patient.
Steem is up again, it's at 3.1$ as of now.
Seriously the markets took a big hit with the Upbit raid.
And here I was thinking about lambos again.
Gotta a wait a bit longer :p
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-a-raid-in-a-south-korean-crypto-exchange-rattled-the-wider-bitcoin-market-2018-05-11
When MarketWatch starts covering these things, you know crypto has gone primetime. Yes, and coming back to your point, that could well have sparked the better part of the selling. If price continues to recover quickly, I'll venture a guess that most pundints will permanently tie the two together.
Indeed.
More and more people are understanding the value of crypto and blockchain.
Upbit is the fourth largest cryptocurrency exchange so it's bound to have an effect.
If only people could remain calm and stay away from the FUD.
But there are always ups and downs, and it'll bounce back soon
Bitcoin continues to determine market direction but there seems to be continued interest in altcoin as BTC dominance remains below 38%. I think this will continue as it will be a big week for altcoins as Consensys starts in NYC tomorrow and we could expect lots of news that may bring interest to some assets in the space. This year attendance will be a record high which demonstrates how cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are going mainstream as more industries get involved. This could prove to be a catalyst for higher prices as some reports have posted correlations between Consenys event and higher prices.
Indeed! This could be a big week!
Very interesting! How do you respond to this graph? Please a little explanation, sir!
It looks like a broken downtrend. Now we need a higher low and higher high to confirm.
Thank you sir! I am very happy to have been notified with a short, solid, and clear language.
Have a wonderful and fun day always 🙏
I would be very confident with STEEM my friend.
I think is drawing a nice BULL flag which will reassure the uptrend continuation:
https://steemit.com/steem/@toofasteddie/steem-the-perfect-combination-of-successful-bullish-patterns
Steem on!
Looks like it's trying to bounce off your horizontal support.
It did already :-). Will see if steem can break the upper trendline:
When polled by Bitcoin Market Journal, several market analysts spoke in favor of using swing trading for bitcoin.
“I think swing trading is a good approach for [bitcoin] trading,” said Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged digital currency platform Whaleclub. “It is mature enough to not fluctuate too randomly and the trends are quite apparent over a few days or weeks.”
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, offered similar input, stating that bitcoin is volatile enough to support swing trading, as well as many other trading strategies.
Things are looking okay for the moment. This could be a good swing trade and I think those folks you mention are spot on.
Sometimes I am confused about what the market is doing for Bitcoin, because I see the price is now unstable, like the graphic you are sharing. But I've read from several other people's articles, they explain about the prediction that the price of Bitcoin will rise dramatically in this year. What do you think? Will it happen?
But in my opinion, it could happen, because all that is market politics. If indeed it will happen, I'm sure very many people will get rich, especially for those who have bought Bitcoin a lot from now on. Hopefully the prediction will be true, let the world will be many happy people. Thanks @cryptographic...
I am a long term super bull on crypto and I think it's very likely that Bitcoin and quality alts will rise dramatically once again.
I've hidden the price action and randomly chosen six points on BTC chart and guess what; it's random moment in time we're going 80 percent up!
I'll take that!
You are smart!!! 😍
Btc price declined after it failed to move above the $9,500 resistance.
There is a significant bearish trend line forming with resistance at $8,900 on the 4-hours chart of the btc/usd pair.
It may rise in the short term, but it is likely to face resistances near $8,900 and $9,000.
price is facing tough barriers around $8,900-$9,000. It must stay above $8,200 and $8,000 to avoid any further losses in the near term.
And about other alt coins, most of them are just following the movement of btc. Except some. The view is same as most of the time. Still, as from me, they should prove their own strenght. I am little disappointed too about steem.
It's managed to stay above $8,200 for now. Let's see if it can hold that. I also see $7,800 as strong horizontal support if $8,200 gives way.
I am hoping, it will test th $8000 and its near marks, but will be stay above it in the end.
Hope, this one will help you little to understand easily.
That trendline was briefly broken twice, but seems to still be exerting its pressure. It needs to be broken definitively. With Monday's strong rally coming at the open of weekly futures trading, I expect BTC to finish the week higher, and that would be a help in the right direction.
Agree on this one with you.
Tips for Swing Trading:
As for specific tips, analysts offered a handful of suggestions. Investors who are new to swing trading might leverage these suggestions to obtain better results.
know more about this https://www.bitcoinmarketjournal.com/swing-trading-bitcoin/
Thanks @cryptographic
Thank you for that link. A very good read and overview of the concept!
Welcome.
Hello @cryptographic,
BTC swing in between $8,000 - $9,700. Anytime it'll break this resistance level & will rocket to the moon. Hodl is the best option while this swing happens.
Extraordinary good article & valuable information/tips you shared here.
~@mywhale
Yeah, I say higher is more likely than lower, but that doesn't mean lower is impossible.
There is possibility of temporary retracement to suggested support line , and if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets.
That's such a cool analysis report of BTC but trust me Bitcoin is going to break the resistance of $9700 soon and maybe even more. And what do you think about steem ? All of my concerns are on steem.
It more or less follows Bitcoin.
The launch of SMTs is what I'm waiting for , it will completely revolutionalize the steem blockchain
BTC took all the crypto market with it too, BTC went all the way down while chasing $9700 value.
now i can see slight rise in the market, taking BTC with it too, hopefully we can see BTC chasing its last year's limits and crossing the barrier and taking steem with it too.
current coin prices are
as we can see a little hike in the price from before...
Hmm, there is nothing wrong in the hope that Bitcoin will rise again!
The correction of STEEM has been very strong, I think it is not related to BTC, otherwise it would have been softer. But it does not matter, with STEEM at high price we are happy, but at a low price we can accumulate more in an exchange or posting, so i'm happy too.
In bitcoin I am seeing that the bullish periods are still very short, some experts say that we are in a bearish trend until we overcome the 11800 where a double top was made some months ago, so technically we are still bearish since December.
All the best for you 😃😃😉Thanks you for sharing a good article , and ur information is very great and useful , I like follow and read ur articles so good luck my dear @cryptographic 👍👍👍👍😃
Encryption sites every day are at a different price
We have patience to make a profit
A really great article thank you for the information
Hey, @cryptographic Great updated information Dear,i Always appreciate your valuable updated information about cryptocurrency and technical analysis. Have a good day dear @cryptographic
I have been doing a research about bitcoin and am pretty much coming up with that bitcoin is gonna moon to $ 36,000 in upcoming years...
What do you think where this bitcoin is gonna make stand ....
The imminent rebound of the alts.... Many will now begin their wave 3, and there are many high altitude events this May. This is the month of gold. Those of you who haven't bought alts yet, buy now. Don't miss this opportunity, as this is probably the cheapest market you'll see in the rest of the year.
Friend @cryptographic, you just mentioned STEEM... This currency is linked to the SBD. Today I bought SBD, as I saw that a possible bullish triangle is forming with a minimum target of 60,000 satoshis. I don't want to waste the opportunity, so I'll keep it.
Here's a catch for you:
Whats your opinion of this colleague?
The price of btc was at a little hike more than 9k and now it has decreased upto more than 8k.I think it has decrease of 1k.The price of cryptocurrency is increasing and decreasing.Yeah steem price was also was at hike but now it has decreased upto $3.I don't know about syscoin.Can you tell me about it?. The price of steem and btc has decreased at almost same week.I think this time it will stay at the price it is and after that it can decrease a little and hike higher.My favourite coin are also steem, sbd and bitcoin.The price of btc can go more 30k at the end of this year as we have seen at 2017, the price of btc hiked upto 20k.
Btc is still in half of the price of December 2017. Previous month it's very low but in May it's rising slowly. steem is quite performing good because previous month steem price was lower than steem dollars but now this month it's always higher than sbd as we hope end of the 2018 btc will be 25k above and steem will be 13$ above. Sir what do you think about the price of btc and steem?
And when we thought it was gonna be bullish for a while but Korea had some other ideas.
Come on , if you believe in a coin and invest it then why do you give heed to the FUD. I wonder when people start to really believe in crypto , how good will that be.
Steem is also suffering immensely, 2.96$ is not what I thought a week before. Well what can you do, this is how crypto works and it's best to HODL for now
We are going through a corrective wave and they are always complex to interpret. Lots of doubt comes in mind dusing this phase.Diffrent count views also make it confusing to count corrective waves and predict next move.
Lets see both views:
Thanks for that great information about how market goes.
I hope steem and sbd gets better on next week my favorite and only ones lol
cheers @cryptographic o/
so much fluctuation in crypto prices
crypto is just too much unpredictable
i hope steem will soon start upward trend
Excellent creativity! go ahead. I liked your post. Please follow my posts!
Currently the cryptocurrency market is the main focus of the issue that is the price quote Bitcoin is supporting the family constantly. I think that the four here you gave here is very easy to understand, and the points you make will really be very good and It seems that there is a need to do some work in the community about these issues and Bitcoin resources But in too important to have the time and the investment community members need to understand about that.
In the way the btc price is currently working as a focal point of the problem, we need to understand some good business marketing related to these issues and here are some great fundamental marketing tips, because we need to bring our profits and acquire the right knowledge about them.
Sir, the current market situation is going on differently in the cryptorchanger market from other times. I think if this continues, then in the field of investment, we have to think a lot and our profit from here has become very difficult. I think we should think about this in our public direction and Because the case should be read in investment, because our cryptocurrency should wait for the right market Currently the cryptocurrency market is completely different from other times and the whole process is running in a loose way.
I always love your analysis cause your explanation is always cool and accurate.
But recently I'm upset about STEEM.
Can you please tell me about it's market condition, when it gonna make a bang again :(
i'm waiting for to see STEEM at Moon again.
Always appreciate your valuable updated information about cryptocurrency and technical analysis.
Thanks for this update.Great updated information Sir, @cryptographic
BULLISH for sure............. Bitcoin is gonna go through the roof upto more than $30,000
While today I was talking with a trader of crypto and at one point he did said sth about the behavior of BTC over the past few days "He have never seen BTC drunk this much before ". There were quite a few people and it was at the end a little fun out for the moment ;)
While currently seeing the movement and the last appeared candle stick does seems a little hope for now and as it seems if the sellers of coins does not panic a t these much it might get a positive aspect.I had t o sell a few from my portfolio as of needed the cash while when the market goes down getting in was quite fun for me.
At the end let us see what happens.
Bitcoin will back again......
I would take the analysis with a grain of salt today, because we don't really know how much influence does the move by MT.Gox had earlier influenced prices and tat can't really be taken into account in an analysis and the assholes at mt.gox moved their bitcoins just as upbit was being raided so that makes me even more reluctant to take any analysis to understand what jyst happened to bitcoin prices...
In my opinion the price fell because of another big Korean BBQ being cooked over there by inefficient regulators and on top of that, in the middle of that mess mt.gox moved 8k~ bitcoins around and everyone got scared and started selling... A good old doze of FUD to be certain.
2nd time
#BTC 13/05/18:
Price rejected at the 200MA / 0.382 fib retrace confluence on the 4hr, after a promising run-up. If price can find support in the $8500-8600 range, it's a sure run to 9k.
very night before I had been looking at things and thinking sell everything just for tonight, a dip is coming... ... But I didn't, mainly because up until now, my main strategy has been to HODL.Man... @milano1113 basically said everything I wanted to say and more, lol. So let me instead go with some personal experience. As usual, when I woke up and saw my holding had gone from -10% to -23% (from their all-time high), my heart felt like lead in my chest. Especially since the
But I think a new strategy is in order... I'm going to wait now until I get back to my all-time high point, and then wait a bit more, depending on the market. I'm then going to take half of my investment and sell back to BTC. (I never try playing BTC to cash and back... I should have, back in December, but now I feel it'll be rising in the long term for some time). The other half, I'll redistribute with my favourite alts and stick them into cold storage as long-term investments.
I'll then take that BTC and trade more actively with it, ideally trying to make 3-5% every day. When it is doubled, I'll take 25% of that and buy more alts as investments, and then try double the remaining 75% again.
And STEEM... I'm not worried about it at all. With only 60-70000 active users, we're still in very early adoption stage. And it will steadily get harder and harder to mint Steem, slowly increasing it's price, so I never touch mine. It all goes into SteemPower.
The popular bullish duck formation applied on Bitcoin chart btc
Thats a duck or goose that lays a golden egg??
Bitcoin continues to determine market direction but there seems to be continued interest in altcoin as BTC dominance remains below 38%. I think this will continue as it will be a big week for altcoins as Consensys starts in NYC tomorrow and we could expect lots of news that may bring interest to some assets in the space. This year attendance will be a record high which demonstrates how cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology are going mainstream as more industries get involved. This could prove to be a catalyst for higher prices as some reports have posted correlations between Consenys event and higher prices.
that's swinging so fast its hard to make any decision right now but holding it tight and thanks for your insights :)
@cryptographic - Sir I don't believe BitCoin swing can make us good profit... But during this time period, BitShares & Steem can generate more profit with a small swing of them... Sir, don't you believe that?
+W+
I think swing trading is a good approach for [bitcoin] trading,” said Petar Zivkovski, COO of leveraged digital currency platform Whaleclub. “It is mature enough to not fluctuate too randomly and the trends are quite apparent over a few days or weeks.”
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and CEO of BitMEX, offered similar input, stating that bitcoin is volatile enough to support swing trading, as well as many other trading strategies.