BTC is, without a doubt, the crypto poster boy and the influence it has on the rest of the crypto market should never be underestimated. We’ve seen a very nice recovery rally over these last couple weeks, but it may be time for a rest and some more consolidation. If big money is moving into crypto as many speculate it is, one thing we can usually be sure of is that big money, smart money, does its very best to not get in a hurry. The market gets bid up, but only to a certain point and a retracement is seen. BTC has rallied right into the flattening 200 day moving average and the 61.8% retrace of a measured short setup within an even larger weekly short. Those setups need to be broken before we have much of a chance to go meaningfully higher. As I see it, $9,750 and $13,000 are the big Fib levels that need to be broken and they surely mark potential upper range limits. Price has been rejected from the first of the two. It could challenge again straight away, or it could retrace into a buy zone for aggressive smart money between $7,700 and $8,100. If the latter happens first, a decent challenge of $9,750 could develop. Either way, any upside challenge would be better seen if it is accompanied by expanding volume. Momentum indicators aren’t showing much weakness yet, so we might get another challenge higher before a pullback into the buy zone I just mentioned. If that happens first, for it to be a decent buy for me, we’d really need a volume breakout, and that could happen - remember, not all the buying is smart money. 😉
This will also be a very good time to evaluate your favorite Alts. I want mine to outperform and keep rising as BTC consolidates. Something like what we’re seeing with STEEM. Not only is it important for them to rise more than BTC when all boats are rising on a rising tide, it’s also important for the best to continue rising when BTC takes a breather.
Read the "The Dos and Don’ts" here if you're not aware of my rules.
I'm putting most of my investments in altcoins, instead of bitcoin. In the last two weeks, bitcoin have added a few percentage on top, Steem and EOS have doubled and tripled.
I don't have any doubts about it either. Quality alts are more than capable of outperforming BTC many times over. They have in the past, and I still see an incredible amount of room for it to happen again.
I would still invest more on Bitcoin because of a brand already famous, with the development of lightning network it could accelerate the transactions, and a chance to make it a real currency( i mean global currency) especially to the third world countries like Africa. This could accelerate their economy without intervention of the government, bankers and meddle man.
In spite of all its drawbacks, BTC still has a lot going for it, I agree.
Whatever happens in the next few months wouldn’t make any impact on my investment. I’m in it for long long time and we can’t let these swings get in our heads. I’m pretty sure you noticed when we see nice jump in crypto like for example Steem yesterday, everyone was soo positive and cheering up. Once we pulled back a bit, the spark has died down. As I mentioned, we can’t look at it day by day. For me, it’s really fun seing this beautiful decentralized market swinging all over the place, but eventually going higher and higher. Just a few years ago bitcoin was at $400.00. Now we are at around 9K. Isn’t it beautiful? Just st like most of us here, I believe in BTC, BTS, Steem... That’s what matters.
You're absolutely correct. The only way to really deal intelligently with this is long term. As you say, the day to day swings are fun to watch, and best left at that.
And it's even more fun when your favorite is mooning!
lol 😆 this reminds me the funny way one of the steemiens put it in charts when there was this kind of volatility and sellings. You may have to zoom it in to see it. I had to shrink it a bit, otherwise it would take your whole comment section.
I also believe that the 200 DMA is significant resistance and the first test for price action. Although normal we would not breach the first time trying, I am concerned with not so smart traders like you mention which will look at the failure as a bearish signal and sell into weakness. The bear scenario is also still viable as we did not see a huge capitulation selling to find a bottom like the $5,900 bottom in February. Volume will be the driver of the signal of the next direction of price for sure. One thing for the bulls is that I am sure shorts are still in play and could be squeezed if we get above the 200 DMA.
You are so right about the possibility of a short squeeze! That is if we can get up through that 200 DMA and $9,750.
The most recent low could be a higher low confirmation of the Feb low . . . operative word there is "could".
Excellent analysis.
I am high on BTC only because they have the name...BTC is the darling of Wall Street. That should be enough to push a lot of money into it over the next few years.
Like you STEEM seems like it has much greater potential, at least from this point. I can STEEM easily crossing $100 with all that is going on....
BTC getting over $200K...it could happen but I dont see it being easy.
BTC is the window display, but the real finds are inside the shop!
I feel the same as you! I believe april, may and june will tell a lot about how the year will end. Lets see how things get done.
Regards, @gold84
I loved the way Steeem broke out yesterday with nice volume. I did expected Steem to pull back a bit after yesterday’s move. BTC can be forming right reversed shoulder if it pulls down a bit more and the nicest thing would be, if it broke the resistance with high volume. At this time I love coins such as ETH, EOS, BTS and Steem. Of course almighty bitcoin is the leader, but as you mentioned, there are other coins outperforming bitcoin in a nice way. We just have to patient.
STEEM and EOS are ripping higher once again. Oh how sweet it is!
Good analysis and your pivot points are spot on ! Hopefully crypto markets will mature and this correlation will be broken ! We should note that the 200 SMA is also around 9800$ level.
Thanks for sharing this with us ! :)
I can't take any of the credit. It's all in the Fibs!
. . . and the 200 DMA . . . big psychological numbers . . . volumetrics . . . etc. 😅
Yeah, we can't underestimate BTC impact on other crypto coins! But if I am not mistaken STEEM, BTS, ETH, EOS were came as competitors of BTC! At the moment STEEM, BTS, ETH could challenge the volume of transactions of BTC! But they didn't challenge the BTC marketcap so far!
I wish STEEM might challenge BTC marketcap in next 2-5 years of time!
Great analysis and useful discussion! In the crypto world anything is possible! So I am keeping my faith on STEEM than other coins!@cryptographic,
Cheers~
You're absolutely correct: there are several competitors on the transactions front, but on the marketcap front, BTC is still more than double its nearest competitor!
@cryptographic - Sir I'm not trusting BitCoin anymore... I'm with BitShares & Steem... If BitCoin rise, BitShares & Steem can make more ROI... There are a lot of active projects are running on Steem blockchain... Therefore, I think Steem crypto currency will make more demand with SMT factor...
+W+
ALWAYS hodl at least ONE Bitcoin. You can make some trades etc..but ALWAYS hodl one.
Even if it might only be a keepsake! 😉
It is always important to realize the nature of the market you are in. Best to be long markets that are going up on bids -- that is current BTC (here expressed in EUR, but you get the point) $BTC
Them's darn good trading conditions . . . for bulls that is.
Bitcoin is certainly the king of crypto. We can't omit Bitcoin due to its market share and position,but in my 2 cent opinion it's better to show some trust on other alt coins like Steem, BTS, ETH, EOS. These coins are out performing Bitcoins so if I have investment, I would love to invest in Steem. Steem has a shining future and who knows it will challenge the Big boss Bitcoin in a half decade or so. Let's hope for the best @cryptographic
About the only thing I recommend is diversification, and even more so if it's going to up your potential returns. It's important not to put all your eggs in one basket.
I am still learning the art of investment. Thanks for your words of wisdom. It is a great idea. I never thought in this way.keep sharing @cryptographic
I think it is more likely the tipping point is external to bitcoin itself. Mass adoption will happen when people run away from fiat and find bitcoin if it is ready. Possibly a cascade of sovereign debt crises
Yeah, it seems more like just a question of time.
It's really cool to see STEEM doing so well lately! Yeah it's almost always about BTC. All cryptos go where BTC goes and I guess it will be like that for a long time. Anyway, I think everyone should be patient, because the money is slowly going to come into the market. Hopefully a lot of that money will come into STEEM ecosystem, hehe... I would love to see STEEM go back to 6-8$ again. And it might not take too long before this happens :)
One of these days it's going to be known as the biggest bull market in history.
Magnificent article. You are absolutely right. Maybe I'm an optimist, but I think that we will expect growth, and it's wonderful. Once again I repeat - the article is magnificent. Good luck to you and Love.
Thanks for that positive feedback. And, yes, I think we can expect more growth!
Hello @cryptographic,
Extraordinary good article & what are the altcoins that you're recommending to buy before the next big money moving in?
~@mywhale
I don't recommend anything other than covering your ass. ;-)
Seriously, that means doing your homework and being diversified.
What I will say is what I am doing - and that's not a recommendation - I'm building a portfolio with STEEM, SBD, BTS, BitUSD, ADA, SYS, ARK and PIVX as its core holdings, but not necessarily in that order. Other people like EOS, ETH, NEO, LTC and the like. It's hard to say what will be around in 5 year's time. I've got a lot of experience and am willing to bet on a smaller, less diversified group, but if I didn't have the knowledge base I have, I would probably include those names as well, and BTC too, just to be a little safer, and I'd probably give them all equal weighting.
Again, cover your bases!
Hello @cryptographic,
Thank you, I'll cover & diversify between Steem, Bts, Ada, Trx, Neo.
~@mywhale
Glad to be of help. It's worked very well for me!
Wow what an amazing post.Loved the information.Yeah, we have been seeing the price of bitcoin had increased from 6k to 8k .It is really amazing for all who has invested.Bitcoin price is at hike and i don't think now it will stop, i would be go increasing.As the last year the bitcoin got 20k in December and every time at the last time of year it increase in my as i had seen.And now there is high possibilities it would go upto 20k or more.As i had seen the price of all cryptocurrency increased at the same time am i correct? Thanks for this information.@cryptographic . What do you think can it go higher than 20k?
Important valuable information of your post....i also support BTC but i don't believe market price of coin...but bitcoin never be stop...thanks for your post
As BTC is increase then whloe crypto is going increase and if BTC going down toward the red line on graph then whole crytp is going down but in this case steem is against it because a few day ago i saw that whole crypto is going down but steem is going toward the green line
so can you explain why
and also i want to ask when the price will go up (steem)
Bitcoin is the best of crypto carrency market...
Very good post @cryptographic, BTC is indeed the best in the market, I also see now the price of BTC is increasing in the market. That may be a sign that BTC prices will be superior in the market. Really very happy people who have a lot of BTC. Because they will have a big advantage. But I do not have BTC, I am very sad. But honestly, I still want to learn more about Crypto market. Thanks for sharing @cryptographic, hopefully you will be more successful work... :)
steemit is now comeback to his market,,,,,,
It's fun to read closely. You write and analyze btc with incredible capabilities. Agree 100%! I think, up and down is a very natural thing. It is not possible an investment rises and rises steadily without any decline.
really a great crypo update
awesome analysis
bitcoin seems to gold day by day.its really worthy
great for crypto user,,in last week i becoming in feel great to show bitcoin
great raising in a moments of recent time .
no dout cryto will controll the world
thankdear @cryptographic
yes bitcoin is the most important and is also called mother of crypto so it all due to bitcoin
when i see the name btc/bitcoain
i remember that time in 2009, when 4 bitcoin was available for only one US dollar. now i cant buy one for me.
but i blieve bitcoin is best smart money for smart people.
I'm pleased to see the growth of cryptos. Sir i think end of the year btc will be 25k above or more. As i think it's the best time to invest to be a gainer.
Today the 17 Millionth Bitcoin has been mined.. !!!
That huge and good for BTC... Steem is also increasing but its too slow than BTC.. So we should be realistic...
isn't there any chance to cross 9k sir @cryptographic???
In the past few days I've been evaluation on when to start taking my positions on a few alts with potencial just in case bitcoin starts consolidating and the alt market starts seeing some action. I'm hopeful for the market to take a step up from the previous 250-280B support line we where running a few weeks ago to 350-400b
I'm not expecting any wild alt bull runs like the ones we had in December-January but there's still a lot of potential gains to be made if Bitcoin allows for alt trading. I still have my hopes up for the market finally reaching 1 Trillion dollars this year and the past 2 weeks have reassured me a bit of it...
Dear Sir,
@cryptographic
As you know, bitcoin and cryptocurrency are related to each other, just like this one day and a few weeks, one thing has been observed that this market is in good condition and many are investing here, many people here are currently taking 200 usd by investing 100 usd and You are going to go in front of us for a much better market.
We have seen this graph that at present 1.75 usd btc is not currently in the market but it is expected that within a short period of time, the market will again come to the right level and it is being examined by us and your analyst because the number of cryptocurrency investment here is going to increase here, There is a lot of benefits after a good amount of profit.It is possible to hope for something in the present night, from which we can expect a lot of profitable figures from converting from usd to btc.
Nice post.i like your blog..thanks for sharing your news
I think btc is the fastest growing crytocurrency and it is the top in the cryptocurrency market.The price of bitcoin has frequently increased and everythime it goes up and after sometime it goes down.It has been happening from the start.From, now i think btc is going to increase only as it has decreased few months ago.Btc is coin which sa been most invested cryptocurrency.When the price of bitcoin was 4k it was just perfect time to invest.Up to this year the Btc price will go upto 30k.It really great seeing your post.
OK, let's be realistic, @cryptographic. Bitcoin will rise all until fiat paper scam exists :)
☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺☺
thanks for this informatio..
Hi @cryptographic ! I still have to learn about trading and ta, however, I believe that this month will be a bull one, and that there will be corrections, but they will be short, and up again. This is my belief. Hope its similar like december!
Regards, @gold84
what do you think about the mt gox situation the rumors say they moves 16K btc will that lead to the downfall
Bitcoin price is moving nicely above the $8,600 support against the US Dollar. Going forward, BTC/USD is poised to extend gains above $10,000 and $10,500.
This past week, bitcoin price gained traction and traded towards the $9,800 level against the US Dollar. It traded as high as $9,742 before sellers appeared. Later, a downside correction was initiated and the price declined below the $9,500 and $9,200 support levels. The price even broke the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the $7,786 low to $9,742 high. Finally, there was a spike below the $9,000 level before buyers reappeared.
BTC price tested the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the last leg from the $7,786 low to $9,742 high to complete a correction pattern. It started an upside move and moved back above $9,000. Buyers also succeeded in breaking a connecting bearish trend line with resistance at $9,200 on the 4-hours chart of the BTC/USD pair. It seems like the pair is back in an uptrend above $9,200, and it could accelerate gains towards $9,750. More importantly, the price may perhaps break the all-important $10,000 level to trade to a new monthly high.
9,427.80 US Dollar, this is the price while i am commenting, just as i expected and most of the people assume about BTC price. I am sure it will roam around 8000-12000 for next few times. this is my own analysis on the market.
The ALTs are having the best time to gain the ground against the big fishes of the market. I am also on the Alts. You are really a realistic person. :)
BTC seems to going up and down for some time while at this point few altcoins are giving out some profit so as for now it might be a good decision to get in r8 altcoins.While the market is volatile but we should choose wisely for now.
Bitcoin never be stop because #Bitcoin is the crypto carrency Boss!!!
I upvote and resteem your post
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#Thanks! @cryptographic
You are Great @cryptographic
It is always important to realize the nature of the market you are in.
Best to be long markets that are going up on bids
its Bitcoin