I also believe that the 200 DMA is significant resistance and the first test for price action. Although normal we would not breach the first time trying, I am concerned with not so smart traders like you mention which will look at the failure as a bearish signal and sell into weakness. The bear scenario is also still viable as we did not see a huge capitulation selling to find a bottom like the $5,900 bottom in February. Volume will be the driver of the signal of the next direction of price for sure. One thing for the bulls is that I am sure shorts are still in play and could be squeezed if we get above the 200 DMA.
You are so right about the possibility of a short squeeze! That is if we can get up through that 200 DMA and $9,750.
The most recent low could be a higher low confirmation of the Feb low . . . operative word there is "could".