I think that Nadal, if he recovers well from his injury, is the favorite. The master's degree is the only important title that is missing.
although Federer has an important streak in his favor in the last head to head
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I honestly think Nadal won’t even make the semis. This is assuming he doesn’t drop out. The only time Nadal beat Federer here was in 2013 when Federer was injured. I don’t see Nadal beating Federer here assuming he doesn’t drop out or make the semis.
Really the indoor for Nadal is not the best type of court, but I trust him a lot this year. However, I share with you Federer's favoritism.