I honestly think Nadal won’t even make the semis. This is assuming he doesn’t drop out. The only time Nadal beat Federer here was in 2013 when Federer was injured. I don’t see Nadal beating Federer here assuming he doesn’t drop out or make the semis.
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Really the indoor for Nadal is not the best type of court, but I trust him a lot this year. However, I share with you Federer's favoritism.