It always seems like just do the opposite of what the Retail Investor is thinking and gain big. 4 years in this market and that's how it plays out every time. When alts get trashed and the BTC ratio is high that was the moment to be in all in good fundamental altcoins.
Let me just clarify how early we still are in this emerging tech. The Crypto market pentration rate is only at 3-5% globally but growing exponentially every year.
All the coins including Bitcoin are all high risk. In fact, the chances of a first mover getting getting disrupted by 2nd and 3rd generation tech are extremely high. Think about how many search engines before Google. Sure Yahoo survived but even today the stock price never recovered to its 2000 high.
Yahoo was super dominant for some years to.
This could be Bitcoin. People mis-understand how big the returns will be for the winning coins and just how severe the losses will be for the coins that lose market share.
Look at the fractals. Same chart patterns and almost exact time frame as in past. Meaning now is the time for altcoins to rally? As we know with all super early stage tech there is no clear real winner until many years have past. There's no better case study than the early Internet days. AOL, Netscape, Myspace, Nokia were all huge for a time then superior tech disrupted them. It was the Apple smart phone that killed off Nokia but in 07' just before the release of the smart phone Nokia was the biggest company in the world.
I am not trying to scare you here. Just people need to be informed. This is still very early days and there is no clear winners until there is real adoption and usage (not speculation). Follow the adoption and tech. Not financial advice but what I tell friends and family interested in this tech. Unfortunetly, many of them FOMO'd in late last year and have no capitulated. I was telling them since 2013 to buy good Cryptos but they shrugged me off.
I guess I'll wait for @louisthomas to make a new post about the high-risk coins and evaluate those coins for investment for the possible October-November bounce that you mention.
Markets are the most oversold in the history. I'd very surprised to not see a return back to mean. At least a 300% bounce with many of the good fundamental coins. This is market is not like the stagnate 2014 markets. You've got one major updates after another coming out in near to mid-term across many coins and platforms. Projects that have been under development for 2-3 years.
Which are the fundamental coins? BTC, ETH, perhaps Steem?
Yes. Those and EOS. It will be interesting to see how Bitcoin Cash and Dash take a lot of market share from BTC in future?
The 1MB centrally planned blocksize limit is crippling Bitcoin's adoption for use cases. Meanwhile, the other two coins I mentioned are open to developers building that protocol app stack to be used as real money.
In BTC, you can only develop if your Blockstream approved in the lightening network that still does not work after 3 years.
ETH is the ultimate protocol stack coin. The most value should accrue there in the base layer.