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RE: I See Bubble People

in #cryptocurrency7 years ago

People being irrational has nothing to do with markets being unpredictable. If you put lots of irrational beings together and let them all be irrational together, you will likely be able to observe there is a certain regularity within this chaos, as if there was a law which makes irrational masses behave a certain way. And there is, it is a law of our nature, of the way we are wired. Technical analysis does not predict future behavior, it predicts probabilities of a certain event. Over 50 percent of all trades on speculative markets today are done by bots following certain algorithms. And this percentage is growing fast because they are massively more successful than humans. If there was any truth to this article that would not be possible. Put the worlds best AI in a casino and let it gamble it will be no more successful than humans. Thinking there is no higher order in our irrational behavior is very naive as any sociologist can confirm.

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If you put lots of irrational beings together and let them all be irrational together, you will likely be able to observe there is a certain regularity within this chaos, as if there was a law which makes irrational masses behave a certain way.

if that was true you would be able to make consistent predictions.

Technical analysis does not predict future behavior, it predicts probabilities of a certain event.

if I tell you that next year is going to have a 12% hail chance in any of the 365 days how much help do I provide to you to protect your crops? Is it statistically significant than any other vague assumption?

Thinking there is no higher order in our irrational behavior is very naive as any sociologist can confirm.

sociology is bullshit. not a science