I agree with your prognosis for Russia's future, with one minor exception to part of one of your points.
may end exactly the way Putin allegedly fears for Ukraine: over a longer timeframe, Russia will probably fall into the hand of a western marionette that grants mining rights (oil, gas, other commodities) to western companies while "Russians" will hardly profit from that.
I'm inclined to believe Russia will fall under Chinese, rather than Western, control. The reason is simply that China is the only thing propping them up right now and they are in very much the position North Korea was in for most of the second half of the 20th century. They invaded a neighboring country on a "unification" mission, started a war they can't win, and now their isolated economy is dependent on Chinese life support.
You seriously think that the largest nation on earth, with the largest conventional army in Europe, the largest nuclear armoury, and the largest amount of natural resources can be compared to North Korea!