Wealth is much like the energy in the universe. It cannot be created or destroyed but rather change from one form to another. Many cryptocurrency and blockchain enthusiasts believe that one day the whole thing will collapse and their crypto gains will be massive. This scenario is highly unlikely because major financial institutions have already invested heavily in cryptocurrencies beyond the average user thought it would be a good idea. This is not only evident from the latest growth of the total crypto market cap but also from the periodical announcements of governments getting involved with Bitcoin technologies.
Any sensible investor knows how to diversify. Our economic system has been the same more or less for quite some time now because capitalism, in all its good and bad shapes, is really an antifragile idea. Currencies might come and go, empires rise and fall but the economic sentiment of competition and free-market is very much kept alive and growing. There is a belief that the elite keep the show going but behavioral and political evidence show otherwise. It is not the outspoken billionaires, the dreadful 1% that holds everything together but rather the 99% that maintains this system with its democratic power. Even in the crypto world we know already that there is no such thing as equality (yet) even if many have envisioned it (e.g with EOS). In all likelihood our economic system will remain much the same post-crypto era. The only difference is that it will be more efficient due to the usage of blockchain technologies.
For those not yet aware of the impact of such technological shift in economies take a look at Steemit. Every possible transaction that will ever be made, will be recorded, forever. Anything you say, any time you login, from wherever you login will be imprinted forever on a given blockchain. This of-course will make banks more responsible in regards to their dealings but it will also give them power of leverage over those who are weaker. It won't stop them from acting as central authorities, either by issuing financial trading bots in various networks or flooding the blockchain with proxy accounts that make tracking impossible. They will use their current investments to shape the ground which they will be stepping in. The game will always have loopholes to be explored. The only difference is that only a handful will have the technical knowledge to pull it off. This will create an even greater power gap.
I never favored conspiracy theories for 3 simple reasons. One is that I think the government is pretty much incapable of doing anything. Second, correlation is not causation and the vast majority of conspiracy theories seem to be based on hearsay correlations. Third, all the material we get against them might as well be fabricated with specific intentions. We simply cannot know. Either way, whatever we assume about the power of governments will fall short in our own narrative.
I try to pretty careful with my logical deductions when it comes to major issues such as a transference between economic systems. History, is perhaps the best teacher in our case. Even though the historical record is often written from the winners, all historians agree that a system never collapsed for another one to come and replace it. Take for example the French Revolution which it is believed to be pivotal in human progress. It was supposed to take the power from the nobility and give it back to the people. It was a crazy idea for the time, even crazier than the blockchain. What happened instead was a shift of power from a few dickheads to a few more dickheads. Instead of labeling themselves "kings" they labeled them "unions" and the power, technically, belonged yet again to the "people". Today, Unions rule France and many other western nations with an unparalleled political and economic power. Much like kings, they decide who gets what and when.
The only important question in hand after an economic shift is where will the money end up. My bet, as with many of you, is cryptocurrencies. There will be a massive surge in an attempt from investors to "save" their money but as more and more banks get on board with technologies such as Ripple, the situation will stabilize. Networks between coins will start to form and people will start grouping under them. Countries with physical borders might become obsolete but digital borders will be very much alive. Already countries like India are moving into a digital form of money. We have witnessed such as an event when the Ethereum blockchain decided to split. We are witnessing a clash now with Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash. The debates between them look very much like civil war discussions.
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In the past when such rivalries took place, heads where detached from the bodies and blood was spilled. As technology progressed, prevailing over rivals became much more creative. A bullet, poison gas, nuclear bomb. War had its peak with WW2. After that, even when we take into consideration popular news fear mongering, things have been de-escalating. Wars have been reduced to small guerrilla fights and countries dismantle armies mostly economically rather than using primarily troops. In other words physical violence is used more and more sparingly. Eventually, and along the economic shift, wars will be fought on networks among hackers and bankers rather than soldiers. Most deaths today from wars do not occur as a result of weapons but rather as an economic aftermath.
The belief that the system will collapse stems primarily from people who group events and ideas into a correlational matrix. We are all opportunists. We all seek profit. Some events just happen. Ethical responsibility shifts autonomously from one person to another. When the surviving Nazis were called to testify for their actions they said that they didn't feel guilty because they were following orders. It was the 'reality' of the day. Those were the economic and political parameters. A soldier feels like he follows a general. A general believes he follows a politician. A politician feels the people have elected him to take decisions for them. The people feel that everyone is an asshole except themselves because "it is not really what they wanted". Humans have a very passive way shifting the blame from one to another. Most of humanity's atrocities happened due to personal responsibility hovering in limbo.
In much the same way investments that shift from one sector to another — with no definitive causal pattern are combined — create a free-market paradigm that sets in motion our current economic shift. Economic bubbles happen because people under-estimate the concept of value. Value though is indifferent to human speculation. Many people want to see the entire system collapse, in order to feel justify but really — this won't serve anybody. Many of the big players which many crypto-fans are depended upon have already spread their wings in many FIAT sectors. This is why they avoid being political about their movements. They understand that for this change to take place, everyone has to slowly get onboard. Be happy that nothing will collapse. In all likelihood, if it happened, you wouldn't make it out alive.
This reminds me of the "Peak Oil" people. Their argument was that energy consumption would never level off or decline, so we'd have a horrible shortage.
And guess what is happening? Oil production is down compared to historical averages, but it doesn't matter much. Renewables have been marching steadily forward.
There are countries that have nearly complete or are completely converted to renewable energy sources. This reduces demand, which in turn makes a glut of oil sloshing around the world.
The predicted energy crisis never happens, because the transition has already begun.
Same with anything else, really. Preparing for the extreme situation prevents the scenario from happening.
So, everyone bracing for full system collapse are actually creating a collective force that will prevent it from happening.
Ironic, isn't it.
Like bitcoin fork.
@kyriacos you've just crushed the hopes & dreams of hundreds if not thousands of doomsday preppers.
By that I don't mean everyone who seeks a more self reliant life, just the ones with their assault rifles, 10,000 rounds of ammo and 10 years supply of freeze dried "food".
So many good posts and comments lately. I'm out of voting power.
I just got my slider the other day and I'm loving it.
Maybe, maybe, we don't know the exact future and it's beautiful
I agree that not just economic but most things in general change over time rather than some armageddon scenario. There are major events etc but all in all its a progression not a big bang.
As far as not believing in "conspiracy theories" does that mean you don't think 911 was a conspiracy theory or does it mean you really thing western governments were orchestrating it?
Thanks for another stimulating and highly intelligent post.
Agreed. I think the golden halo of a decentralized, anonymous, egalitarian utopia is fading fast and that the powers that be will end up very much embedded in crypto. I also don't think there will be a sudden overnight financial collapse where suddenly everyone panics, loots their local stores and then it all turns into a scene from the Road Warrior 2018, a savage battle to survive, while the genius doomsday preppers live it up in their bunkers.
Yeap, some people really believe that the FIAT guys are that stupid. Many forget that electronic money was first invented from the banks. Satoshi just upgraded. I wouldn't be surprised if Bitcoin was just a "pilot" project after the economy collapsed the first time.
ok i got into tinfoil territory here.
Well, you never known. Although I don't usually go in for conspiracy theories and I would rather wait until the facts are in, there is not much that would surprise me at this point. So much of what is really running this world is behind the scenes and the vast majority of us will never actually see what it really looks like.
so you believe in conspiracies now? LOL
This is so true. I think in times of uncertainty, fear of a "collapse", or the fear for the future, what's important is not to be a hero, but to be your true self. Stick by the principles you found right, demand reason and evidence to the same degree as you have always done, and stay sane while the rest runs off a cliff.
Such a great analysis. Hodl on, my friend. Our golden bricks are on the way.
So we need to diversify! Nothing wrong with diversifying resources, in fact most of the rich person I know gain wealth out of it. Therefore, while we are still at shift beginning, we need move slowly some of our resources from the existing to this incoming shift.
That guys face made me question this entire post haha, just kidding! Great info and post kyriacos!
Imo blockchain technology will survive to provide many great uses. The problem is that the crypto nation doesn't understand what drives pricing and determines value. That's likely because anyone born after the year 1990 doesn't even understand how a "real" market attempts to work on the excesses of false pricing. They will all learn the hard way though. And it is actually the best way to learn "if" you take the time to try and figger out eggzactly why you just got your ass kicked. :-) The current system will stay in place except the excesses in it will also be driven out to "fair" value. Look at the U.S. govmint debt situation which not only you, but everyone but myself says is "unsustainable." Well the truth is that if a bank was paying you a monthly fee to borrow money from them you would borrrow as much money as you could afford the monthly payment on. And that's exactly what happens when "false" pricing gets driven from the U.S. financial system. the world comes running to the "safety" of U.S. dollars and debt. It won't be long before the very shortest maturities of U.S. treasuries are paying a negative return...and the Chinese, Eurozone countries, Russia, etc are all rushing in to sign up....simply because it makes more sense to pay a monthly fee to lend your money (to the world's superpower) than it does to watch your bankroll get cut in half two or three times by keeping it in assets priced in Yuan, or Yen, or Euros. :-)
I really value the title of your piece. It maintains an optimism and open mind. It will certainly shift, perhaps experience the greatest disruption to date, but we must maintain a positive attitude and mindful attitude to adjust and react accordingly. We cannot let those suffering and less fortunate stand by way the wayside and watch more and more separation. We must bring each other together. Thank you for taking the time to share your valuable viewpoints! Namaste
Yeah I agree! Everyone can do what they feel is right and it could end in disaster!
Cryptovalue is the future of business.
Everything is changing over time and so will the economy , it cannot collapse or get a lot better but it might moderate itself
i prefer the word "correction"
Don't wish it collapses, because you'll suffer it
A good read, however we should be optimistic and wish for the best, upped.
"The owls are not what they seem..."
Big hug!
Steemitri The Mannequin
Agreed, diversify your investments to avoid future problems.
Makes me want to refresh my blockfolio again! - https://steemit.com/cryptocurrency/@cryptocoinclub/blockfolio-addiction-help-group
Yes, that's very true...
I've always found the idea that fiat is going to fail because of crypto unrealistic. Crypto might be disruptive, it might be part of the future of finance, but crypto is still entangled and not completely detached from the fiat economy much like altcoins are entangled with bitcoin.
I totally agree that wealth cannot be destroyed nor created and my conclusion is that any form of speculation will end in tears therefore. I also agree that humans must learn to be responsible for what IS. I blog lot about this.
sorry I beg to differ, human history is filled with financial crises and boom and bust cycles, ALL man-made... why? because everybody FOLLOWS the money, and the top does it at the expense of the masses.
Conspiracies a facts of life, they are the norms. The only conspiracy in the world is 'ignorance versus knowledge': to make the masses believe that chasing money brings about happiness, but since it does not, the destructive side effect of this mantra helps the top to harvest and speculate on the losses of average Joe and Jane, by inertia. And that is how the wealth transfer operates. The deception is embedded in monetarism itself. This is the central argument for a money-free society. Right now there is a huge trial in EU against the biggest automakers which colluded in order to fool the "carbon foot print" of the diesel emission, WV, Mercedes, and 3 others. See article: Now we can't trust car giants on miles per gallon either: After VW scandal, Mercedes and BMW accused over fuel efficiency Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3252717/Now-t-trust-car-giants-mpg-VW-scandal-Mercedes-BMW-accused-fuel-efficiency.html#ixzz4p41F7bfu
Following the money causes COLLUSION... and collusion causes CONSPIRACY TO DEFRAUD or/and KILL.
Events just happen... like what, life just happens out of the blue? My feeling is that you may be missing the most important part of the puzzle and which is the 'metaphysical element' of the Grand Illusion. Nothing happens by accident. If you understood this element, you wouldnt say that events just happen. Seeking profits, the mentality of profit making that is at the core of all our ills, because as you put it wealth cannot be created nor destroyed.
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Ominously Warns That The Biggest Bond Bubble In History Is About To Burst -- August 4, 2017
http://investmentwatchblog.com/former-fed-chairman-alan-greenspan-ominously-warns-that-the-biggest-bond-bubble-in-history-is-about-to-burst/
I disagree with the slow shift theory of yours
my reply has been included in my today blog
https://steemit.com/basicincome/@earthcustodians/time-and-value-are-the-only-adversaries-of-universal-basic-income-greenspan-just-predicted-a-major-crash
Nicely written, @kyriacos! Upvoted. The following 3 sentences A soldier feels like he follows a general. A general believes he follows a politician. A politician feels the people have elected him to take decisions for them. are true in many countries of the world.