The EOS distribution is already epic, yet it has only just begun. We are on only day 4 of a 351 day, partially blind auction. At the current rate of donation, EOS is projected to have a market cap of approximately $3 billion. Although a test net is set to go live in the not too distant future, that is a lot of money for a project with no product so far. Having said that, the development team behind EOS, led by Dan Larimer, are beginning to get the recognition they deserve. The unparalleled capabilities and utility of Steem and Bitshares can attest to that.
Is a very useful tool which shows an excellent summary of the overall distribution situation.
So what does it all mean? What is a fair market price for 1 ERC20 token from the EOS distribution Ethereum contract? This is what a lot of people are asking and attempting to discover. I can tell you now, I don't have a clue. My expectations have already been proven incorrect and there is so much that is presently unknown.
Here is a list of considerations that I am trying to bear in mind, perhaps they can be of some use;
EOS is not yet proven tech, though Dan Larimer's track record is highly promising.
Should EOS succeed, it could out-compete it's main rivals and many blockchain use cases in existence today could be replicated within EOS and displaced.
Despite the best efforts of Block.one, there is a distinct lack of due diligence happening with regard to the EOS distribution mechanism. FOMO (fear of missing out) is high and the spreading of FUD (fear uncertainty and doubt) is quite rampant. Efforts to disseminate the truth are ongoing.
The dynamics of the blind auction and secondary exchange market will attempt to find a fair price for the EOS ERC20 token as efficiently as possible, (the fairest way to accomplish that yet devised,) but there are many factors that could effect it in the end.
Traders like volatility. Buying low and selling high can be extremely profitable. This market is likely to be susceptible to multiple influences and remain quite volatile.
It is possible that market participants and prices will be periodically manipulated via software interfaces, exchanges or even network performance.
Some market interfaces may break down through demand or bugs.
EOS will launch a test network in the near future.
News of EOS development progress will begin appearing.
The wider debt-based global economy looks highly unstable.
An increasing number of countries seem to be in the process of legitimising cryptographic blockchain tokens, potentially bringing huge additional demand to the market.
Every day that goes by, more EOS ERC20 tokens will become available to the market. edit - added
Citizens of the US are not presently able to participate in the EOS ERC20 distribution.
There may be an as yet unknown competitor to EOS.
In order to sustain the current average price levels for EOS ERC20, millions worth of ETH will need to be donated every day.
A buyer with next to unlimited resource may come into the market at some point.
Ethereum's current market price may change significantly or the relative values of any of the tokens within the crypto market. It will be interesting to find out what Block.one will be doing with all the ETH they accumulate.
As you can see, there is a lot to consider and this is probably not even the half of it. Please add other important considerations that I've missed into the comments.
So what do you do if you are interested? Make sure you read and understand everything on the EOS.IO website! You are responsible for you own donation and investment desicions. Remember, there are significant risks due to so many unknowns, never commit what you cannot afford to lose. Be wary of anyone who tells you what the price of anything will be in the future.
Best of luck.
Happy Steeming
As to the last point -- what EOS is doing with its Ethereum -- EOS has already sold 120k so far, about 20% of its haul.
https://etherscan.io/address/0xa72dc46ce562f20940267f8deb02746e242540ed
https://etherscan.io/address/0x9937dbb2128b55c44d8af7bf36fd76796a814cf4
This is pretty dubious, and ironically sounds like the FOMO you're talking about right above! ;)
Like a below 1% chance at best. Too much competition from too many directions, Bitcoin, Ethereum, Steemit, Dfinity, Siacoin, Qtum, Monero, Zcash, etc. The Maximalist scenario becomes less and less likely as more competition emerges. And I find it VERY unlikely that these use cases and competitors will move under a DPOS umbrella. That's not a tradeoff that appeals to people in this space, for the most part, and not one that differentiates blockchain enough to normals for a solution applicable to all use cases.
Be wary of investing in promises and hype! This post is pretty helpful to people in that it's more measured than most of the EOS posts we have seen on Steem, which are enthusiastic but way too full of hype.
Hi eeks, thank you for the comment! Apparently there will be an announcement regarding what block.one is and will be doing with the Eth they are accumulating. Could it be that they are actively trying to avoid an overtly dominant market position in Eth at the same time as producing a contraction in the supply? Both would be risky and detrimental to block.one. Also, although it has been mentioned that EOS development is funded. They have applications to build upon it that may not have been.
I completely agree that we should be wary of hype and thank you for acknowledging, that is not what I want to produce here. As to the competition. It seems to me that EOS is fundamentally different from all the rest of the competition. That does not mean there are no use cases for stand alone blockchains or blockchain based networks, but given that the majority seem to be really struggling to solve the ability to scale or are as yet untested themselves, I think something like EOS......if it delivers, has the power to drastically out-compete other use cases. Having said that, I really have no idea how likely that would be....it's a risk I think about mainly in relation to the communities that have formed....especially around the Graphene tech.
I'm making the crypto world friendly and accessible for everybody by explaining acronyms and terms related to cryptocurrency. Here I found:
Please upvote for visibility. If there are any missing terms here you want to be added to the database, please comment, so I'll become better.
Awesome!
that's VERY cool. nice!
the one thing I still don't understand is what happens after one year, and the EOS ERC-20 tokens are finished? I know that EOS will create their own EOS tokens after the one year is up. Do the Erc-20 token holders get the new EOS tokens? If I could understand this better, I would be able to clear it up for people.
As far as my understanding goes, bearing in mind I'm certainly no expert in interpreting Block.One's T's & C's, nor their intentions, The ERC-20 contract tokens will be frozen, after which, there is the possibility that the EOS token will be mapped and distributed to the ERC-20 token, 1 for 1.
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STOPThanks for the heads up too.
People should learn more about what they will be venturing about.
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This is excellent, excellent analysis. Thanks a lot, I've upvoted and resteemed this post.
Thank you. I'm sure it can be improved a great deal but with everything going on right now, i hoped this might help.
Yep...I fell in FOMO mode. Bought in window 2. ; 0
Thanks @benjojo ...blockchain technology will take over and add more value to our world
Thank you very much for your advice. These are gold for beginners like me. Good job.
That's great, thank you.
to me it all sounds very promising but there's far too much uncertainty right now. best move would be to wait for more info first, then make an informed decision later.
That sound sensible to me but who knows. It feels like a guess to me however much I think about the factors in play! :)
i do have a question about community loyalty in this equation, if we are constantly in the pursuit of the new, the better, and follow the creator, the artistic director in this case, dan away from him leaving steemit are we not just following the usual business like world in leaving a wake of uncertainty behind, i feel like as wonderful as eos sounds (and i wish i had any money to invest in an idea or a new way of working) i also feel we so freely build up audiences and then leave them behind. so my question, is it fair to say that steemit and blockchains have a lifecycle? and we can maybe expect to see steemit maybe dead and gone in a few years and maybe a few years after that eos transformed into something else? how can we expect audiences to keep up with that? we bring them in then pull the rug into something else? i've not had breakfast or coffee yet so this may have an aura of angst in it! ;) love ya stuff.
I think I understand what you are concerned with. Dan's stated vision is to build tools for humanity that enable individuals and communities to secure their life, liberty and property. He is at the bleeding edge of the very new technology that can deliver and he is busy making sure it is a) fit for purpose (utility, scale, reach) b) is designed with the utmost integrity and c) is continually evolving until unassailable. That he succeeds is absolutely essential for everyone. There are only a handful of Dan's in the world and their skills must be deployed where they are put to the greatest use. There are a handful more with the skills to act as custodians of these precious tools once they have launched.
EOS is not a direct competitor to Steem but it is possible a competitor could be built within EOS and that competitor might be afforded an advantage by being built within EOS. There are some challenging possibilities brought into play by this possibility. Is it the audience to blockchain technology and what it can do....bring integrity back to the systems we use.....of greatest importance, or is it the individual audiences those who have invested in steem have built? Is there a way to transition from steem to EOS without losing everything of value held in steem? These are important questions I think are worth considering.
'build tools for humanity' ok, i'm out. .. cheers for the reply (edit) - however, on re-read 'integrity back to the systems' that i can be down for. let's hope so.
What's not to like about tools for humanity? There are 2 billion people who have no access to even rudimentary financial services and all the possibilities for empowerment that brings. :) There is no hope about it. These networks are built on a foundation that resists corruption over time.....you can see it in action now :) Check out the Bitshare decentralised exchange.....a true marvel.
i don't know maybe just jaded of all the years of hearing the usage of 'world's first' over and over, while access is important i feel we leave other areas behind in that transition, i guess it's what bubbles you believe in, like if you believe in climate change and that those big data centres are sustainable and mining crypto using the worlds hydro power is a good step forward for human kind. i guess i worry about the wrong things! i'm one of the connected masses inside the existing billions that have access and i see what we already do with it, it's disconnected us from each other more than empowered in some cases. interesting usage of words, resists corruption over time, or it could be we just have a different kind of global elite, i don't see the balance like you do, that's on me. i accept that.
empowerment at the expense of diminshing global resources that are currently mismanaged by greed, maniupulated by sub sections of society that actually are so disenfanchinsed that they want to see it burn. i'm all for the tools to build in trust and authentic human empowerment. i'm just saying that the community element is way more than just a calculation - i should add i'm cranky pants before coffee and breakfast. i'm on that now. ..
I understand very well where you are coming from. I genuinely do not believe that this blockchain stuff is just more snake oil. It changes everything at a fundamental level.....the full effects are still way behind as everything tries to catch up.
Bear in mind that not every blockchain is the same and some will not be able to deliver. It's the ones that succeed that i'm most interested in. Read up on DPOS, the delegated proof of stake consensus mechanism that helps to keep steem, bitshares and other honest. Do I know everything will work out in the end? No. I just believe in the chance.
Enjoy the coffee bud :)
it's why i'm here. it's why i'm engaging and it's why debate is so important. boy do i need coffee this morning.. .. i'm a supporter trust me.. . it's educating that 'last mile' of people i'm interested in, i spent all my life trying to use language that people understood working for the 'man' and had to go self employeed because i wanted to run at MY PACE instead of slowing myself down, the tools are exciting, for sure.. . COOOOOFEEEE. ..
those are amazing tips I'm a beginner and this will help me a lot thanks for sharing and keep on posting ;)
Fantastic, I'm very happy to be of some help.
Thanks for the info, the wealth transfer from fiat to crypto is slowly taking place.
No worries. Certainly seems to be escalating.
Already cashed out my initial investment. All ice cream sundaes here on out.
I'm happy if you are happy :)
Great thoughts here! Looking forward to seeing this post on trending!
Thank you! I can only hope it's that useful! :)
Thanks for the post. People makes their own decision. this is really helpful info. Nice post.
My pleasure, thank you.
Nice advices thx mate =)
I can't ever remember a safe investment giving considerable profits.
If you take into consideration all the dangers regarding EOS and cryptos in general, nobody should invest. Yet, for small investors like us, this might be a one time opportunity, if we are willing to invest as much as you can afford to lose.
Big risks big gains
Indeed. Due diligence can at least somewhat attenuate the risks....but it takes effort and time to do that properly. I worry that most are not even trying.
Resteemit to get the word out to those who understand all this ;-)
Great post this is.. EOS is going to MOON in next 15 days.. Must check this
https://steemit.com/eos/@durgeshg/don-t-miss-a-chance-to-become-a-millionaire-invest-to-eos
Hey @bejojo, i'm not one to spam no other way to my knowledge to reach out to you. Would you consider delegating steem power to me for a day or so? Im regularly active and feel I can really help others and myself. Thank you for all your support from day one!
EOS is probaby a scam
What is your opinion based on? Obviously, at this early stage anything is possible. I think 'probably' is very unfair.....especially without putting forth any evidence.
Well, the whole concept seems fishy, the codes are not out there
and the logo look like Ether
but as you said probably a strong word let's use likely
Lol! Have you read the whitepaper bud? The concept seems astronomically incredible. I think that is, in part, why so many people seem to be keen to participate in the distribution. It is very clear that the EOS logo is completely different to the Ethereum logo. Let me say I think 'likely' is just as unfair as probably. You've really got to offer more than 'seems fishy' when using words like scam. I half feel like you are having me on! It's been fun :)
Yes you are right my argument is weak. it's just a guts feeling