I hear your logic but Eos is a little different in the sense that having tokens in the initial snapshot could lead to greater benefits down the line such as owning tokens on additional side chains or other implementations of Eos. I think of it a little like owning BTC before the day of the BCH hard fork. It's obviously risky for the reasons you mention but carries some potential extra upside.
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You will be able to do this after launch as well. I am playing this one cautiously.
Possibly. I'm not sure exactly when the exchanges will be switching from trading the ERC-20 token to the Eos main net token. The way I see it is that it's good to have bought some tokens before the launch and then to pick up some more when/if it's up and running smoothly