raising the HBD to 20 percent in April 2022 and lowering it in August 2023 is not going to move Hive significantly because Hive is not going to move until Bitcoin does, and that won't happen until the halving next year.
This does not follow from my work. Price of Bitcoin is just one factor among many that contribute to the price of Hive.
OK ... I will take correction because I probably have rolled your data in with some other I have been looking at inadvertently. My apologies to you and all. I will, however, ask this question: given that Bitcoin is a strong factor in how markets move, do you have data that suggests is it LIKELY that adjusting the HBD interest and/or jiggering the reward curve downward will have a positive influence over the price of Hive that will counterbalance the influence of Bitcoin? By the way, if ANYONE does, I'd love to be corrected again.
I don't have that data, but it might be possible to determine it statistically. I'm not sure though, because we've only altered interest rates a handful of times any analysis might not achieve statistical significance, but I haven't examined that deeply.
The Bitcoin aspect is not relevant at all, HBD interest rate doesn't have to act as a counterbalance to anything.
And it won't ... it can't ... that was my point ... so I'm not seeing why changing it is going to improve anything. Like I said, I am probably conflating your data with some others ... but there's not much any altcoin seems to be able to do at this point in the cycle to get on a sustained rise or attract a bunch of investors. It's just not time yet. As much as I would love Hive to be an exception to the rule, it seems that the GENERAL tendency of altcoins to follow Bitcoin in its cycle dominates. Again, I would love to be wrong: if you or ANYONE has any data to show me that there is ANY combination of elements on Hive's price that can and has resisted the general market trend, I would love to see it. But if this is not a thing, I need to know why people suddenly want to fix what isn't broken with the HBD interest, when that's a part of the good story we are taking into next year and the bull.