For the past few years, American and Western military officials have been anxiously talking up the prospect of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Different officials give different dates but the consensus in Western foreign policy circles seems to be that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is a question of when rather than if. Nonetheless there are reasons to be skeptical of this consensus, not least because, well, the West doesn't have a great track record when it comes to China predictions, so in this article, we're going to have a look at Why China Won't Invade Taiwan.
The first reason not to think that China will invade Taiwan is that, well, the CCP hasn't actually said anything along those lines. Hawkish Western commentators sometimes claim that Xi has put some sort of deadline for Taiwan's reunification, usually 2027, the 100th anniversary of the People's Liberation Army or sometimes 2049 the 100th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China. But while Xi and the CCP do emphasize these dates, they've never expressed them as a hard deadline for invasion or reunification of Taiwan. In fact, the CCP have only said that they want to quote, ensure the achievement of certain military targets by 2027, which could mean just about anything. The 2027 target is essentially an interim target on the way to the, quote, modernization of the China Army by 2035, a plan that the CCP set out in its 14th five year plan. When it comes to 2049 the CCP has said that it wants to have, quote, a world class military by mid-century, and Xi has said that he wants to achieve the, quote, great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049. But, well, this doesn't necessarily mean reunification with Taiwan, and it's unlikely that Xi will be in power anyway, given that he'd be 96 in 2049.
It's also worth saying that while certain Chinese officials and its state media can sound quite bellicose on the issue of Taiwan, Xi himself sounds more measured. Xi has stressed that time and momentum are on Beijing's side and he actually sounded pretty dovish on Taiwan in his New Year speech when he mostly stuck to boilerplate statements about the One China principle and expressed hope that quote, Our compatriots on both sides of the strait will work together with a unity of purpose to jointly foster lasting prosperity of the Chinese nation. Anyway, you get the idea, contrary to what you might hear from the more hawkish corners of Western media, neither Xi nor the CCP have ever set a deadline for invasion, so an invasion isn't a foregone conclusion. The second reason China isn't going to invade Taiwan is economic. As I've detailed in previous article, the Chinese economy is always struggling. The property market is looking wobbly. Local governments are defaulting on their massive debts and youth unemployment is reaching unprecedented highs.
Invading Taiwan would incur enormous economic fallout, which the Chinese economy clearly isn't prepared for. Obviously, there would be no more trade with Taiwan, which currently exports something like $200 billion worth of goods to China every year, including strategically critical semiconductors and other high end tech components. Pro Taiwan countries would also impose massive sanctions on China and probably stop trading with China altogether in the way they have with Russia. But even friendly or non-aligned countries would find it difficult to trade with China because China relies heavily on seaborne trade, especially via the South China Sea. An estimated 30% of the world's trade passes through the South China Sea and with the exception of trade with South Korea and Japan, which would stop trading with China anyway, almost all of China's seaborne trade has to pass near Taiwan or American bases in Okinawa. In the event of an invasion, the cost of insuring ships operating in the region would skyrocket, bringing China's economy to a screeching halt.
This would be particularly bad news for China because China doesn't really have a domestic supply of oil or gas, which is why it needs to import lots of it. Today, China is the world's biggest oil and gas importer and the vast majority comes from the Middle East via the Malacca Straits. If ships stopped sailing through the South China Sea or America decides to impose a blockade along the Malacca Strait, this would cut China off from its energy, which would cripple China's industrial economy. So you get the idea an invasion of Taiwan would do enormous damage to China's economy, which is already in a bit of a crisis. The third reason to think an invasion is unlikely is that it would be both exceptionally difficult and risky. While it's only 150km from the mainland, Taiwan is a mountainous island with a limited number of landing spots, most of which are in the north of the country near Taipei. Even if they were able to land successfully, the PLA would then be faced with a mountainous and narrow terrain, which is perfect for Taiwan's defending forces.
Taiwan's varying geography, which includes wetlands, mountains and densely populated areas, means a total occupation would require a huge range of different combat skills and a massive logistics operation to supply PLA forces. This also means that Taiwan would be able to see China's invasion coming from a mile off because it's such a massive operation. Invading Taiwan would require deploying a significant number of ships and aircraft to the coast around Taiwan, as well as an enormous troop mobilization. Analysts estimate that the CCP would probably have to mobilize something like 2 million men to give the invasion the best chance of succeeding, who would then have to gradually be deployed around Taiwan. Much like with Putin's invasion of Ukraine, this troop buildup would be literally visible from space, giving Taiwan the time and impetus to sort out its defending forces.
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On top of that, Taiwan has two monsoon seasons, and the treacherous weather leaves just two brief windows of attack one in April and May and another in October, which means Taiwan would probably be able to predict the date of the invasion. So you get the idea. An invasion of Taiwan would be difficult for any military, let alone an untested one like the PLA. And if the war in Ukraine has taught us anything, it's that there's no such thing as a guaranteed outcome in modern warfare.
Sources:
- https://www.vox.com/2014/9/3/6101885/middle-east-now-sells-more-oil-to-china-than-to-the-us
- https://www.wionews.com/world/explained-what-if-china-invades-taiwan-in-2026-the-5-things-war-game-simulations-by-us-think-tank-revealed-550978
- https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-2027-goal-marks-the-plas-centennial-not-an-expedited-military-modernization/
- https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Taiwan-tensions/China-s-peaceful-unification-talk-finds-no-traction-in-Taiwan
- https://fortune.com/2023/01/28/war-china-taiwan-likely-by-2025-warns-american-general-mike-minihan/
- https://www.geostrategy.org.uk/app/uploads/2022/09/GPR01-06092022.pdf
- https://www.ft.com/content/1740a320-5dcb-4424-bfea-c1f22ecb87f7
- https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-has-debated-attacking-taiwan-controlled-islands-taiwan-official-says-2021-11-04/
- https://sites.tufts.edu/gis/files/2013/02/Brutlag_Daniel.pdf
- https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2022/09/china-preparing-invade-taiwan-news
- https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Taiwan-crisis-could-erupt-before-2027-U.S.-lawmaker-warns
Excellent post. The fact that the entire world is pissed off at China for the entire Wuhan thing. Yeah the entire covid thing really has China's reputation in the dirt. Then the Chinese illegal biolab in California that really is breaking this week...
And then on top of it China still has that pesky crimes against humanity situation in the world Court. Yep the international criminal court labeled China as committing crimes against humanity. That still hasn't been dealt with. Instead China decided to unleash covid on the world to cover that up.
The biggest one however is economically. Economically it looks like in the next couple of years China is just going to collapse and fold on itself and declare bankruptcy and be over with. That would definitely be hilarious because then China could make some actual changes in the world could support a non-communist Oregon harvesting China.
Oh the fact that China owes an unending debt to the United States and NATO allies! Yeah the entire world war II debt. Russia just completely defaulted and that's the reason why it's going to lose the Ukraine war. Because the international world Bank has completely and totally bankrolled Ukraine and waited until they agreed to pay seven times market value for every bullet.
Huge scam and debt. However just like Taiwan paid off their debt and did it in computer chips, Ukraine can provide international assurances for grain production and being able to provide massive amounts of food to counteract famine.
China just issued the plans for a gold backed petrocurrency that they control. So I have a feeling the next economic war is going to be against China since Russia just wasted its strength against Ukraine and now is defenseless.
As I have stated in my articles before, I am not sure whether the China-Taiwan war will break out. The world economy and peoples are more interconnected than ever. It is not difficult to guess that in a possible war between Taiwan and China, the US would favour Taiwan. But there are much more than these three reasons for this war not to break out, and yes, each of them is related to the United States. America and China are more dependent on each other than ever before in history, despite Trump's restrictions on trade with China.
The fact that the Chinese economy is tanking even faster? Yeah they might not survive economically through the next year let alone what happens when they are abandoned by the Russian federation.
Announcing that they were going to release a gold backed currency? That absolutely has lethal repercussions. Don't forget the colonel in Libya that got raped by a knife because he did the same thing... He actually got raped in the ass by a knife.... Filmed. And then we watched the entire amazing country descending to anarchy to the point where human beings were put in zoos as well as sold in open markets.
I also think that the Ukraine-Russia war has ennobled China's diplomatic and economic position. First of all, we see a diplomatically strong China trying to end the war. Secondly, China is one of the most profitable countries in this war because it is getting barrels of cheap oil and gas from Russia. Putin needs to sell his hydrocarbon resources to China and countries like China (e.g. India) in order to fund the war.
Diplomatically strong China LOL are you serious nope absolutely not.
So China's entire peace plan was laughed at by both sides. In fact the entire world is still laughing at it. However the Saudi Arabia summit that didn't have Russia attend is actually a pretty interesting one. But China has absolutely no international standing.
China is getting a discount. And also getting paid for massive amounts of military equipment like individual first aid kits tourniquets and live action role play airsoft quality plate carriers. The Chinese fake body armor has led to a massive amount of Russian casualties. Even Russian soldiers complain about Chinese equipment. So we'll see if Russia is able to keep the Chinese manufacturing centers going with business.
But a Chinese tourniquet? That sounds like the worst thing in the world to trust your life too. Absolutely bottom Dollar?
So China needs all that cheap energy to power everything and the factories that make the money. On top of that China is buying a massive amount of petroleum. Let alone China also demanded that Russia hand over the entire Eastern half of Russia a couple of years ago. Back then Russia just laughed at china. If China has the chance I absolutely see China annexing the Siberian oil fields. The ones that directly have pipelines straight to China...
Going to be an interesting and to the Russian federation and we'll see who takes the Siberian oil fields because if that happens then China gets cut off. Or more dangerous to China is that the Siberian oil fields go to the international banking cartel and China has to pay them. And watch those prices skyrocket just to shut down all Chinese manufacturing capabilities....
Oh yeah that's right China said it was going to have a gold backed currency. The last country that did that was Libya....
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