I tend to think that those in government take a "don't let a good crisis go to waste" attitude in their decision making vs. some mass conspiracy to do something nefarious. I don't give them that much credit. Having said that, I think the threat from covid is real (but that doesn't mean it needs to be exaggerated) and that vaccines are generally quite effective. In Florida, where the percent of people vaccinated is hovering somewhere around 60% last I checked, hospitalizations are ~90% unvaccinated. That says to me that the vaccines probably offer significant protection. If 100% of people were vaccinated then 100% of hospitalizations would be among the vaccinated but there would in theory be fewer hospitalizations overall. It makes sense that if you are in an area that is highly vaccinated that at some point most hospitalizations would be among the vaccinated. You have to take into account the trend of total hospitalizations due to COVID as well.
And yes, there has been very little discussion of natural immunity or herd immunity (at least in a positive context) but i think this is out of fear. It really doesn't take a whole lot to overwhelm hospitals. They operate close to capacity in the best of times for cost reasons. Even if COVID only hospitalizes a fraction of a percent of the population, it can push things over the edge. Natural immunity is great (and better than a vaccine) but the government doesn't want people having "COVID parties" to get infected, and for good reason. While we have not, generally speaking, had hospitals overrun up until this point, there have been many that were very close to capacity and in many cases things like "elective" surgeries have been delayed which in itself is deadly to some.
As far as the delta variant, certain vaccines may be more effective than others but even the ones that are being labeled as potentially not effective are really just less effective, not completely ineffective. I read somewhere that the J&J vaccine may be better than the others vs. the delta variant.
As far as the Pfizer trial mentioned above, the fact of the matter is that, given enough time, everybody will eventually get COVID unless we can magically eradicate it just as everybody at some point gets the flu. The vaccine offers protection in addition to just prevention. It tends to make symptoms significantly less severe if you do contract COVID and reduces the chance of hospitalization or death. The flu vaccine does the same thing for the flu. It doesn't always prevent it, but if it doesn't, it usually makes symptoms less severe.
As far as HCQ, Ivermectin, budesonide, vitamin d, zinc, etc., are there good randomized control studies based on these vs. COVID?
What I don't understand is the hype about masks. They CAN be effective but to be effective you have to use something better than the disposable paper masks or cloth coverings that people typically use. Plus you have to be diligent about their usage, wearing them correctly, making sure not to touch your face, washing your hands frequently, not reusing the mask, being careful when you take it off, etc. In other words, the way people typically use them on average, they are completely ineffective (I find it hysterical when I see idiots wearing a mask but not covering their nose...or constantly pulling it up and down...maybe hysterical isn't the right word).
At the end of the day, most of what we hear about COVID comes from politicians. They say whatever they think will most help themselves...or protect themselves from blame later. But that doesn't change the actual science and just because a politician says or does something stupid regarding a vaccine doesn't mean the vaccine is bad. It just means they are.
Super grateful for your clarity and the depth of this response. There's a ton here.
First - I 100% agree on politicians and the motive there. Generally, that sounds reasonable - until you start digging a little deeper. I work at a data integration company, most of what we do is validate information before pulling it together and marrying it to disparate data sets. So a lot goes into understanding where the data comes from. Just like the "with covid" vs. "of covid" loophole is exploited to exaggerate death counts, hospitals are told not to ask patients with symptoms if they've been vaccinated. They're also only counting you as vaccinated if you've had both shots for >2 weeks. As of this morning, Israel counts you as unvaccinated if you haven't yet had your 3rd shot. So "vaccinated" is a very narrow definition, convenient for making rosy comparisons of a poorly tested treatment. In data science, we call that a segment.
When more effort is placed on changing the definition of something than changing the something, it's usually because the underlying something doesn't show what we want it to: in this case high vaccine efficacy. You'll start hearing that the vast majority of patients in the UK and Israel are vaccinated soon - Delta will be the culprit - as opposed to a poorly run trial with data that scientifically showed a 0.5% absolute benefit vs. doing nothing.
What strikes me as nefarious is that most vaccines are pulled when more than 50-100 people die in close proximity to them. We're in the tens of thousands globally and there's no discussion of it. Even when it happens in the public sphere: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-tyne-58330796.amp.
Full disclosure: I totally believe COVID is real and dangerous. I had it, paralyzed half my face for a month (bell's palsy) and I spend about 7hrs a week in the gym (34 y/o). No comorbidities or sickness here, it was awful - way worse than any flu I've gotten. That's why I've been doing so much reading. The second I found out that Gates was refusing to allow other countries to manufacture in their facilities (Canada, for example) or that 10x as many died of starvation because of lockdown in India vs. of COVID this I got really curious. Net lives saved are severely in the red.
Just starting now to discuss - here with you. So grateful for anything you can expose me to that I might have missed. I'll forward some studies on
Thank you!
Sources
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8088823/
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8101859/
https://www.news-medical.net/news/20210830/Does-SARS-CoV-2-natural-infection-immunity-better-protect-against-the-Delta-variant-than-vaccination.aspx
RCT on Masks: https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33205991/ inconclusive, but begs the question - why haven't we done one that IS conclusive yet - when we continue to use this as a primary method of mitigation?