Recently active Hive authors and their rewards
Yeah, you have been at hive for a long time, and seen many plots on hive related data, but I bet you have never seen a plot like this! It is amazing how much you can do with data these days, and how much the data tells you about behavior of crowd.
Thanks to @beaker007, I have been looking at a lot of hive and splinterlands user data lately. Lot of the visualization of the data I have been able to do only because of him and some of the other prominant hivers like @slobberchops.
The trouble of any data query at hive, is the fact that the moment you want to go deep into the lower HP domain, you almost hit a wall. This is because there are too many inactive accounts that were created over the years and are now defunct. In order to do any kind of data analysis, such accounts just slows everything down. I also know how to identify those accounts in terms of my simple indentifier: Investors or Extractors. I will just classify those 'dead' accounts as extractors and move on. However, the reverse question is more important. How do you identify an active account? There are many way to answer that and I am not going to get into that debate too much. Let me tell you how I identified these 4349 accounts (which are active) that is plotted above. I was looking for active authors or at least commenters. Here was my criteria:
- Accounts with author rewards > 500 HP
- Accounts with comments > 10
- Accounts which made those comments/or posts in last 6 months
In order to get author reward, they must create a post. To get 500 HP author rewards, the account must make many posts, just commenting and getting upvotes in comments will not get you 500 HP author rewards easily. The 10 comment cut-off is a low number, but lot of the farmers don't comments much, and I did want to include them. The 6 month cut-off is arbitraty, but I am not interested in people who left a long time ago. We have pondered on them enough, and it is time to move on.
So that was my logic for the selection. I must make sure, that I explain, that whether that number is 4349 or 8000, or 12,000 matters not to me. I just wanted to have a large enough sample to play with so that people can't talk about sampling biases.
The Plot
I already wrote a wall of text, and the plot is too far above:) Let me put the plot back down here again.
This is a plot of 4349 'active' hive accounts. They are ploted according to their HP rank along the horizontal axis, from the highest to the left (rank 1) to lowest to the right (rank 4349). The vertical axis is HP ploted in log-scale, so that I can plot 1 and 1 million at the same time. The data clouds are:
- Blue = Total Rewards (Author + Curatiom)
- Orange = KE Ratio (Author rewards + Curation rewards)/Held HP
- Red = Held HP
- Magenta and Green dash lines are manually drawn bands, ignoring the outliers
- Yellow dash straight line = 500 HP cut-off that I used to get the data
Observations from the Plot above
Overall, KE Ratio increases with lowering of held HP. This is no surprise as held HP is in the denominator. However, the change is dramatic as soon as held HP drops below 200 HP.
- below 200 HP; average KE = 11,010 (there are 717 account that falls on this spectrum)
- above 200 HP; average KE = 5.5 (there are 3631 account that falls on this spectrum)
Well that 11K average is skewed because of a few accounts with less than 1 HP :). Let me take them out. These are those 20 'authors' by the way.
If I ignore them, for accounts that hold below 200 HP, the average KE = 169.89!
Did you get it? This is a massive dataset. When people holds more than 200 HP, their 'behavior' in terms of hive etiquette is about 30X better than those that holds less! We have excluded, worst of the worst from this calculation.
Here is the disclaimer: Since KE is a ratio, its effect is really prominent when the held HP gets very low, as it is in the denominator. But that said there is a trend of the exploitation among low HP accounts that can't be ignored.
Governing Dynamics 2.0
When I first published the data of top 2500 hive accounts back in August 2024, I included every account. It was described in this post. That first plot in that post is below:
The problem with this previous plot is it included all accounts regardless of if they post on hive or lot. A lot of them were inactive, some were investor account, some were curation only etc. So the plot was very noisy. This time around I am focusing on recently active accounts (6 month prior, we can use a different time frame if we want), who had written posts, created content on hive blockchain, and were rewarded as authors.
The immediate difference you might see, is there is no account below 57 (which is the lowest on this very large sample). Most of the accounts are above 60, and show a nice trend, and large clustering. 50 - 100 K HP and 65 - 80 reputation. Reputation here is a function of upvotes received or author rewards. The outliers of these plots are far and few and highly visible.
People who got a lot of rewards and sold it all: kingscrown, anomadsoul high on the Y-axis, low on the X-axis
People who don't post much, but likely bought HP, bubke with 92K HP and 0.12, low of the Y-axis, high on the X-axis
People who post a lot, and still held decent HP, like oflyghigh, taskmaster4450, high on both X- and Y-axis
These people are all outliers. I have tried to label as many outlier as I can. We can look at each group of people in detail at a later post. This post is already way too long.
However, if I don't mention one thing from the first plot then I probably won't be able to sleep at night!
- lets say you hold 5000 HP, among your peers who hold similar HP, you could have gotten 5000 HP rewards or 35,000 HP rewards
- a factor of 7X difference!
- lets say you hold 4000 HP, among your peers who hold similar HP, you could have gotten 1800 HP rewards or 28,000 HP rewards
- a factor of 15X difference!
- towards the right side, the range is fairly constant, for the same HP, you could earn 500 HP or 22,000 HP rewards
- a factor of 44X difference!
Please, I want you to think about this. What is some of your peers are doing? Which vote trail or curation program some of your peers are on? How come they are getting 40X more rewards compared to you?
Let me rephrase that!
Some of your peers are getting 10 to 80 times more rewards than you!
What are you not doing?
We are going to look into this more accurately on a log-log plot. Here is the Table for that. It will give you a lot to think about. Also there is the chart below that leads to the table for your consideration.
| Peer Group HP | Low End HP | High End HP | Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 600 | 50,000 | 83X |
| 3000 | 1500 | 70,000 | 46X |
| 10,000 | 4600 | 120,000 | 26X |
| 30,000 | 12,000 | 300,000 | 25X |
| 100,000 | 35,000 | 400,000 | 11X |
By the way, this is obvious, but still I should mention it. Since for each 'peer group' the HP is similar, and their total rewards vary dramatically, their KE will also vary proportionally.
As KE = Total Rewards/HP.
Why do you think the total rewards are so much different between the peer groups? Many reasons:
- Age of the account, more time, more rewards
- if they hold same HP today and if ones total rewards is 10X higher, then KE should be proportionally higher
- More engagement, the higher rewarded user must have more connection with the community
- Favorable curation, the higher rewaded user must get regular upvotes from large curation programs
- Consistent posting, the higher rewarded user like a consistent poster, if not now, must be in the past
There could be other reasons that I might be missing, do let me know and we can investigate. It is all in the data.
KE Ratio Variability within Peer Groups
Similarly we can plot the KE Ratio variability. The results are similar:
| Peer Group HP | Low End HP | High End HP | Factor |
|---|---|---|---|
| 100 | 5 | 500 | 100X |
| 300 | 1.9 | 105 | 55X |
| 1000 | 0.6 | 81 | 135X |
| 3000 | 0.2 | 17 | 85X |
| 10,000 | 0.15 | 14 | 93X |
| 30,000 | 0.12 | 5 | 41X |
| 100,000 | 0.1 | 2 | 20X |
| 300,000 | 0.1 | 1.5 | 15X |
Hope this helps the curators if they like to use this information.
Man you are quick with progressing the data into some interesting visualization and analyze/findings, impressive👏.
Appreciated. If the data is available on demand, it is easy to make plots for me :)
Agreed!
I'm loving seeing this sort of analysis. You can't hide on a blockchain. I powered down a significant chunk of my earnings recently and used the proceeds to purchase my dream camera lens. I regret nothing.
And you shouldn’t regret.
I hope the camera is doing okay. Post some pictures if you want and tag me!
Good to hear from you after a long time
Camera is doing fine. I moved house, and am now just getting back into being a regular contributor of nonsense to HIVE.
Good to have you back!
The interesting thing about this plot is it allowed me to visualize my Author Rewards as compared to others in my peer group...
Holy crap, I am on the low end... super duper low end.
BUT...
I know why - thank you for helping me understand that in previous posts and conversations!
I also understand how to increase my author rewards organically, while at the same time managing a sub 1.0 KE target and still being able to take some of those rewards and purchase related Hive Assets for the Community... e.g. taking some rewards from the Splinterlands Community posts and buying Splinterlands Assets with them 😊
Knowledge is power Captain, the question is what are you going to do with that power?
Apparently my goal is to earn enough Hive to purchase a snow covered mountain, hollow it out and use its magma core to create steam that will shroud the top of my lair?
Hahaha no - I shall go make new friends and explore this digital world :)
If you flag @bpcvoter just once, it increases your comment score no end! Maybe want to exclude all his stuff from any more reports. Now your post will be flooded with spam... as I tagged him.
It already is. I have it muted!
Interesting analysis. I am currently ranked at 2150 in terms of HP. I spent a few months practically inactive in posting on the hive due to high workload and exhaustion. However, I remained active on Splinterlands, where we currently have the largest active Brazilian guild.
I think that some factors are very interesting in these assessments of differences. Well, in my opinion, some factors are:
I totally agree when you mention the time on the account because if you analyze a person who has been on the hive for a long time, in addition to the issue of rewards, it also shows that they are a person who has not given up on the project and is still with it.
I also agree that engagement makes a difference. People who comment, like, and seek to create a family, identifying themselves and living in the hive projects, end up achieving greater appreciation. Consequently, greater engagement in the projects can lead to more favorable curation.
I believe that consistent posting has a lot of influence because you strengthen the bond where people continue to follow you and discuss, helping with engagement and rewards.
Some additional factors that I feel are:
When a person is part of a community that teaches and guides the user to seek the best practices in the hive, it helps a lot, because the hive is not that simple, it is a living ecosystem where many things often change.
Compliments, when a person is complimented, they feel motivated to continue posting, so the more positivity you have in your circle of people in the hive, the better you evolve. As the saying goes, if you are with 5 people who are trying to move up, you will be the sixth to evolve.
I believe that the higher your HP and activity, the more likely you are to seek to be part of the "hive" team. You stop thinking about posting "just to earn a few bucks" and focus on evolving by bringing more people closer.
I myself always try to help people who play Splinterlands to evolve and increase the players in my country, it's something that I think is very good about the brawls and the dialogue, in the summary of this text, I believe that the more you think about the community, the more you will evolve and multiply your earnings and friends.
Engagement is key. Also it takes a long time to firmly understand the social dynamics of this place.
When I first started blogging I was not very consistent and most of my comments were just trying to flirt with a hot girl. She was from a different country. So my time was basically wasted because I had no chance of being successful. At least now I am more active in posting/ commenting than ever before. It is a shame that it took me years to get to this point but it is what it is...
You can’t go back in time. Few realized the true power of hive even today.
I have not taken profits yet but I believe that Hive will allow me to live without having to worry about money in the future.
That is our hope anyways and it's a good thing
Sometimes it's just a matter of the right person adding you to their auto vote. I know I am lucky to have that with some of my votes even though my content is original, well written, and high quality. It really becomes apparent when hive.vote goes down and your post sits there like you are a total noob to the chain.
Yeah, you have found your niche, and are mostly well placed. You have nothing to worry about regarding hive.
I realized the power of engagement too in our previous discussion and actively engaged in the community. Thanks for this.
Yes. And consistency along with variety of posts that engage people
I mainly write about games but sometimes I dabble on other topics like ai and crypto. I also reply to posts to get more engagement.
two things, first see youself on the plot, then reflect that almost all the big circles are 2016-17 accounts. They just had a lot of head start. That could be disheartening, but don't be. Notice how many of 2016-17-18 accounts are as small as you and much higher on Y-axis, which is KE. They have sold, and now will continue to lose if the price stay high and goes higher.
The best post have ever read this year! I appreciate this information.
"More engagement, the higher rewarded user must have more connection with the community" imho this is top priority.
I am just starting in this universe, and yes, it requires a lot of commitment and perseverance, you have to persevere and try to learn more every day.
And as in everything, the greater the effort, the greater the reward.
I am getting the bigger picture based on the data sets provided. Hive is a community. Although my entry to this blockchain was purely gaming at first, I gradually realize that we have to thrive as a community. I started engaging, posting and also find time sharing about hive to non-hivers. It may be a long way but we'll get there. Vonak !BBH
I am loving seeing this sort of analysis. impressive post
Very interesting information, and thanks for guiding us through it!
I notice a clustering throughout many of the plots around a line and behaviour I think looks like exactly KE=2 - Probably those who never unstake HP but transfer the HBD out.
These accounts seem to be pretty numerous. That means that the liquid-staked rewards ratio of the chain really determines the behaviour of many accounts. Something to think about for the influential people here!
I can look into that segment of the data and investigate. You could be correct
I do not see any significant trend. Do you?
Not there, but let me highlight what I thought would be KE=2 in the other plots:
Here, there seems to be an increased density in the center between the two green lines no?
and here on the two white lines:
original so you can see below where I highlighted.
Maybe its nothing, I just thought it could be an interesting feature.
It’s nothing. Because both your highlights and my new are the same data. Just zooming in