History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes. And if you take a look at HIVE’s all-time chart, you’ll notice some striking similarities between the 2020-2021 bull market and the current one. I know I’ve recently said in a few posts that this cycle resembles 2017 the most, but HIVE wasn’t even around back then.
We had STEEM in 2017, but that was a whole different story. HIVE had a pretty unusual price action during the 2020-2021 bull run because it was still in its infancy. While the broader market was going parabolic, HIVE lagged—until it woke up. Once it did, we saw over 30x returns from trough to peak. More than decent, I’d say...
In 2021, after the April-May peak, the market took a major hit, and sentiment felt pretty much like it does now. BTC crashed from around $64,000 to just over $30,000 in days, mostly due to the FTX collapse, dragging the altcoin market down with it.
Right now, the market is correcting again. And while most altcoins (along with BTC) are mirroring early 2017 price action, HIVE seems to be in the same spot as it was after the April-May dip in 2021.
Back then, HIVE dropped from $0.80 to as low as $0.20 during that correction. Most people thought that was the top. But in reality, what followed left us all speechless—HIVE skyrocketed from $0.20 all the way to $3.60 by late 2021.
This cycle, HIVE has only reached $0.60 (according to CoinGecko’s all-time chart) and has corrected down to $0.22 (so far). Some might wonder if we can break that $3.60 all-time high again.
I’d say yes, we can. So far, we haven’t had a proper altcoin season, and when that finally kicks in (which I believe it will at some point this year), we’re going to see trillions pouring into altcoins. Bitcoin has had its major moves, but as with every cycle, the time for alts will come. And when it does, many coins will hit insane valuations.
I don’t have a crystal ball, so I can’t tell you exactly where HIVE is headed this cycle. But my gut tells me it’s going to at least retest $3.60. Corrections can shake confidence, especially at this stage in the market, just like greed takes over once we pump again. But remember—altcoins only need a couple of months to go absolutely bonkers.
If HIVE has bottomed—or is close to a bottom—then just look left on the chart and see what’s coming... Just my two cents.
Thanks for your attention,
Adrian
BTC was at $21k when FTX collapsed.
We were grinding in range and it seemed like we found the bottom.
CZ even gave everyone fair warning that FTX was FUCKED.
The first catalyst of the bear market was Three Arrows Capital insane overleverage.
The second was LUNA/UST collapse.
By the time FTX collapsed the bear market was already over which was reflected in the relatively tiny dip that it created.
Hive does seem to be rocking that fractal though.
Would be nice!
What was the catalyst for the fall from $64,000? I thought it was FTX…
Technically the first 35% dip doesn't require any kind of catalyst at all because dips of that caliber are standard at any sort of peak. I also seem to recall people bitching that Tesla sold a big chunk of their stack to build more infrastructure/factories. But yeah FTX was basically nothing by the time it happened... people just remember it more because it was right at the end and marked the bottom bottom bottom.
Tesla, right… I knew it was some shit nuking the market.
Yeah but they sold at a loss and didn't report it until July 2022 (after BTC was already at $20k)... which means they definitely were selling in Q2 not Q1. There's a reason why the initial drop was thought to just be another 30% dip along the path to $100k... it's because none of the bearish stuff was public yet.
This cycle is Microstrategy which will probably nuke the market at some point...
You have to believe Saylor is actually going to sell Bitcoin for that to happen :D
Honestly I'm not sure if that's where the overleverage will come from.
Blackrock and Fidelity are candidates.
So is Coinbase who custodies all their coins.
And now banks are getting involved in a big way as well.
It will probably be a domino combination of things just like last cycle.