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RE: We Are(Probably) Here...

in GEMS3 days ago

BTC crashed from around $64,000 to just over $30,000 in days, mostly due to the FTX collapse, dragging the altcoin market down with it.

BTC was at $21k when FTX collapsed.
We were grinding in range and it seemed like we found the bottom.
CZ even gave everyone fair warning that FTX was FUCKED.

The first catalyst of the bear market was Three Arrows Capital insane overleverage.
The second was LUNA/UST collapse.
By the time FTX collapsed the bear market was already over which was reflected in the relatively tiny dip that it created.


Hive does seem to be rocking that fractal though.
Would be nice!

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What was the catalyst for the fall from $64,000? I thought it was FTX…

Technically the first 35% dip doesn't require any kind of catalyst at all because dips of that caliber are standard at any sort of peak. I also seem to recall people bitching that Tesla sold a big chunk of their stack to build more infrastructure/factories. But yeah FTX was basically nothing by the time it happened... people just remember it more because it was right at the end and marked the bottom bottom bottom.

Tesla, right… I knew it was some shit nuking the market.

Yeah but they sold at a loss and didn't report it until July 2022 (after BTC was already at $20k)... which means they definitely were selling in Q2 not Q1. There's a reason why the initial drop was thought to just be another 30% dip along the path to $100k... it's because none of the bearish stuff was public yet.

This cycle is Microstrategy which will probably nuke the market at some point...

You have to believe Saylor is actually going to sell Bitcoin for that to happen :D
Honestly I'm not sure if that's where the overleverage will come from.
Blackrock and Fidelity are candidates.
So is Coinbase who custodies all their coins.
And now banks are getting involved in a big way as well.
It will probably be a domino combination of things just like last cycle.