Miners have known the deal for quite some time now.
There will be no capitulation.
This halving will look nothing like the previous 2.
All the variables are different.
We've bounced off the doubling curve 4 times in the last 4 days.
Coinbase needs to deposit my stimulus already :D
isn't the US stimulus a cheap loan?
It was a free check for $1,200. Not nearly enough for most folks, but they did beef up unemployment insurance which covered most people that lost their jobs due to the shut down...
didnt trump said US had the best economy ever? sooo many new jobs....
It did before things were purposely shut down... The thing about being purposely shut down likely means there is some pent up demand which is hard to account for, I suspect that as things start to open back up we will see one of the fastest recoveries ever. Plus more stimulus is probably on the way as well.
It was more like a free $1200.
It's not just about miner capitulation, there is also a kind of sell the news event where the price runs up prior to the event, and then when the event actually happens and price doesn't immediately moon, the fast money guys sell the news and price pulls back for a bit. I think we could still see a drop in bitcoin even if there is not much miner capitulation, especially since bitcoin has run pretty well over the last month.
Okay, yes, but what I'm saying is that we already sold the news (COVID).
Now we are trading at the baseline;
The baseline that we were supposed to crash to in the first place.
Trust that I will be surprised if we dip back below $8400.
Last halving the market tried to foolishly price it in.
That didn't happen this time.
There is no news to sell because no one bought the news.
Well searches for "bitcoin halving" have been skyrocketing on google for a couple weeks now, and we saw bitcoin rally from about $7k to $9.5k during this same time period... Given that, I would not be surprised to see a retrace down to $7k, possibly into the $6k's post halving once price doesn't immediately moon.
I do concede that the drop we had down to $3.8k wasn't a normal drop and wasn't "supposed" to happen, but people tend to trade recent price action and not where prices were "supposed" to be going in. If they bought at $7k and the price is $9k, and things start to look weak, there is a good chance they pull the sell trigger, irregardless of the fact that the price "should" have been trading for $10k going into the halving flat. IE, the dip creates sellers as they are sitting on profit that they otherwise wouldn't have been.