Part 3/5:
This suggests that the key to further progress may lie in a model's ability to extract the necessary reasoning steps from the limited data available, rather than simply scaling up the training process. The 01 family of models from OpenAI, which utilize a test-time compute paradigm, offer a glimmer of hope in this regard.
Ultimately, the truth lies somewhere between the extremes of unbridled optimism and pessimistic doom-saying. Even the experts at OpenAI admit that they simply don't know how long the current trajectory of progress can continue. As one researcher stated, "I think it's still unclear... we're still trying to figure that out."
[...]