Part 3/9:
In learning to question prevailing narratives—such as the notion that inflation is a perpetual condition—Pal illustrates that a rigorous probabilistic approach often leads to insights that diverge from mainstream thinking. He proposes questioning what assumptions must hold true for inflation to persist and argues that economic recessions fundamentally affect inflation trajectories.
The Challenge of Linear vs. Exponential Thinking
One of Pal's key observations is the human tendency to struggle with exponential thinking, which is crucial in today's rapidly evolving technological landscape. He highlights that while the economy is cyclical, people’s understanding of growth often remains linear.