Thanks for this! I didn't know about that biggest account starting to rent their cards out now that it's a trillion percent easier to manage.
I rent my duplicate cards out, but mainly I try and play with my full collection. I don't have many CL cards and most of my cards are Beta edition... so I just can't compete in tournaments and modern at the moment.
I've been noticing the value of my collection get lower almost every day for months and months, which is to be expected... and I've been waiting for Yodin and Kitty to get cheaper so I can get them.... but I hadn't thought about how much cheaper they might be after Untamed falls out of Modern. Do you think Guilds would sell all their CL cards once CL falls out of Modern? Or would they just start playing in Wild?
I'm honestly really worried about what Rebellion will do to the CL value. At this point I can't imagine CL packs ever being worth more than $4 on the secondary market... but if that's true then you can expect the investment into Rebellion to be significantly lower... how many people bought CL packs purely because Alpha, Beta, Untamed & Dice are worth way more on the secondary market than their initial purchase price? If that no longer is true then Rebellion is not going to sell well at all...
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It's really hard to say. Things change so fast around here that its impossible to know what things will look like a year from now but the problem now is that CL alone can't compete with the older cards. If CL, rebellion, and whatever is next does compete well, they might switch it over to wild but otherwise they'd have the same problem. Untamed is also going to be a huge hole to fill. There are some great core cards in that set and I wouldn't be surprised if losing Untamed from Modern doesn't push a few modern players toward building better wild decks.
I think cards, especially the newer ones, are being pushed toward being more tools to play than a way to store value. SPS is the new store of value. And on a higher level, the platform itself. That said, I don't think CL packs will have a problem getting back to $4 on the secondary. There will be a year where CL will still be on modern but wont be available through the site and that will keep a market for them. Plus many people just won't be willing to sell for less than at least a small profit. I could see CL packs trading around $5-7. They might spike toward $10 when they first sell out and then drop back down. I'm thinking Rebellion packs will probably be $5 so that will help them stay up.
It's a lot to think about.
It really is a lot to think about... which is great. It's honestly incredible to have so many things to try and weigh up and predict for what is essentially, just a card game.
Hmmm, you might be right about the CL packs on the secondary market. I think CL packs are going so cheaply ($1.84 on Hive Engine) because people can buy with DEC now (4000 DEC = $2.25) which means that if you have enough vouchers you can buy 2,000 packs for $4,517 and sell 2,400 packs for $4,416. This means 2,400 extra CL airdrop entries is only $100... which is an extra 4 Conqueror Jacek cards (assume value around $25) plus the other remaining airdrops.
However, once the edition sells out... the airdrop cards is removed from the equation, so why would anyone sell at a loss at that point? The only thing I can think of is to raise funds for Rebellion, but surely that's not the majority of people.
I guess it depends on how complete the Rebellion edition is... if Guilds and new players can be competitive with only Rebellion cards then there might not be much residual value in CL packs in the year it stays in Modern. I'm so curious to see what type of cards are in both Riftwatchers and Rebellion.
I'm really enjoying your insight... I haven't really thought about the editions as solo collections nor do I have really any insight into how guilds operate so your post really helps me think about the game outside of my little bubble. Thanks!