It also depends on where you start the month from, in this case it looks like the lower 40k area, which is already ~25% off the top. With all the increasingly stronger underlying buying pressure opposite the shrinking supply, it's tough to imagine things going much lower. It could end up being a "wash" - a month's worth of sideways trading within a humongous range? With a panic sell to 30k included? Possible to likely?
Edit: From a technical viewpoint, a panic to 30k is not very likely, but that never rules it out . . .
A touch on the moving average and a bounce would be hugely bullish. But, there are 900 coins being minted a day. At $45k that's $40M/day, $280M/week that "potentially" have to be gobbled up. Obviously not all (if any) is hitting the market but....it's still either being accumulated by miners who will have to sell some at some point, or it's being accumulated by institutions who then aren't actually buying on the open market. Either way, that number grows the higher it goes so...we might stick around these levels for a while.
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Great point! Since we are entering the month already down 25% or so, it's going to tough to have a bad month. We are already off to a great start today!