30 years ago, world’s population was 5,2 billion humans. Today is a little over 7.8 billion.
30 years ago, we started to connect to each other using what we later called “the Internet” (the first seeds appeared around 1990, but it’s true the mainstream tools appeared 5-10 years later).
There is an interesting correlation between these two metrics.
Linear Space Versus Logarithmic Connections
For starters, we are occupying a lot more space and we are using a lot more resources than we used to just 30 years ago. In absolute numbers, 35% more. At a scale measured in billions, 35% is an incredibly big number, especially for such a tiny time period – in historical terms, 30 years is just a blink of an eye.
The strain that we’re putting – just by merely existing – on our environment is enormous. By “environment” I’m not referring only to the actual physical environment, with all the potential consequences on climate change, but also on our own network of connections, as individuals. Because we are so many (and because we became so many so fast), it’s becoming increasingly difficult to form predictable relationships with each other. This has a direct impact on the potential revenue we can generate – it’s simply more difficult to engage in predictable work processes. Or, in layman terms, to get a predictable, stable job.
Which, in turn, affects our overall capacity to live and enjoy living.
Opportunity Cost And Cognitive Burden
Simply put, it’s way more difficult to take advantage of opportunities. Not because it’s harder to be where the opportunity lies (if you read my article about geo-arbitrage, then you know it’s actually easier to move around), but because we have a much steeper learning curve just to access that opportunity.
We are closer, physically, to each other, but we are more and more apart, from a cognitive point of view.
I realized this the other day, when a friend asked me to give him some tips about one of those DVD Media that I’m using, specifically Hive. He’s a very smart guy, very flexible mentally, and yet, we still spent a few good hours just to give him a basic understanding of the platform.
I’m sure there are many other scenarios in which the cognitive burden just to understand some platform, some job, or some tool, will be just as big, if not bigger, for me too.
It’s like the speed at which we form cognitive systems is logarithmic, whereas our evolution in this physical space is still linear.
And this happens not only in niche systems, like I mentioned above, where dedicated platforms, or highly skilled jobs or tools need more and more mental effort just to be understood at a very basic level, but also in mainstream tools, like money.
This financial paradigm is changing right in front of our eyes, just like the information ecosystem was changing 30 years ago, with the rise of the Internet. I still remember how, back then, some Nobel prize winners were very vocally against this “passing thing”, which was the Internet, a thing which “would never create anything valuable”.
And yet, 20 years later, we live in the times of Google, Facebook, Amazon and Apple, to name just the most important ones.
We’re seeing the same thing with crypto-currencies. It’s a 10 year old phenomenon already, which is starting to become mainstream (just like the Internet needed about 10 years to hit the masses too) and yet, many people – and I know a lot of intelligent, sensible people like that – are not only skeptical, but downright aggressively against it, touting it as a mega-scam, ponzi scheme, or whatnot.
The cognitive overload in front of this new type of money may, indeed, be just too much for some of us.
But this fact alone wouldn’t stop the change from unfolding.
Those Nobel prize winners had all the right to disregard the Internet revolution, but that didn’t stop that revolution to happen.
There’s a huge opportunity cost in ignoring this financial revolution, one that makes the cognitive overload to just being acquainted to its new rules, well worthy.
Initially published on my blog.
I'm a geek, blogger and ultrarunner. You can find me mainly on my blog at Dragos Roua where I write about productivity, business, relationships and running. Here on Hive you may stay updated by following me @dragosroua.
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I wonder if the problem is cognitive overload or resistance to new knowledge. Historical data shows that in every epoch, there are humans who resist new tech. Whether it is in medicine or finance, people that resist new tech always exist and people that accept and grow with it always profit from the benefits
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I tend to believe it's cognitive overload. I know folks who are open, intelligent and tech-wise, but they still find the learning curve(s) of this new tech difficult. If I put myself in their shoes, and imagine trying to make sense of all this Bitcoin -> Ethereum -> Bitshares -> Steem -> EOS -> Tron -> Hive connection, it would take me a while. I just wrote the name of the blockchains before the one we're using right now, if I would have to describe their tech, it would have take me days.
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That's true but on the surface of it, I don't think it is entirely a matter of cognitive overload but more about interest and motivation.
Take me for example: I do freelance writinggigs and have written numerous articles about DeFi. I'd always been able to participate in theory but never delved into it because of a lack of motivation.
When Cubfinance came through, I decided to dive in, due to my trust and extra motivation from using a product controlled by a trusted brand.
I think that it is pretty much the same with tech heads that don't use crypto. Most of them don't have motivation to delve in and all it takes is someone, whether personal or iconic to dive in and make them learn.
Perhaps there's a lot more information for us to consume these days. I could make the topic for cognitive overload from the angle that people are overwhelmed I guess. It can be draining, especially when there's so much and there's the "where do I start?" Issue.
That's exactly my point when I'm talking about opportunity cost: it is indeed a lot more information around and it's way easier to miss out on opportunities, simply because we can't process that much information. We're overloaded.
I feel fortunate to be at the right place at the right time in history. Learning about this piece of technology will change the world as we know it. Admittedly the learning curve is steep. I have been trying to get a few folks on board but it is difficult to envision a world different from the one they are used to. Regardless, this radical change will continue until it engulfs that entire planet.
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Word!
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Now when you are saying it’s 10 years old, I feel old 😀😀😀
I was thinking earlier today at the same comparison with the internet. I think right now it’s in the 2000’s of Eastern Europe. However at that time there was already a bubble in US.
It needs to become much more user friendly in order to capture bigger audiences.
Maybe something like the iPhone will appear and revolutionize the way crypto/blockchain is used/consumed.
The progress it made from command line to visual, click-easy interfaces, still astonishes me, to be honest. Just 5 years ago, you would have to interact with a node via a shell, typing commands and parameters.
And there's another thing, which may not be that pleasant: maybe crypto is not for everybody? Maybe its complexity is part of its core value? Maybe if you can't grasp something that complex, you're not "worthy" of it? Just a thought...
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I actually read an article about being "worthy" of it the other day and I share the same opion.
However some things here and there might be made easier to "the average Joe". I am thinking now about Dapps that could put undercover the whole financial jargon, not for investing in crypto but to use it in daily life for smart contracts, blockchain etc.
I hope it makes sense:))) My confusion starts to disappear little by little and it's like McDonald's slogan "I'm lovin' it!"
You're very right to say that there is a lot of resistance. Also, I agree on the cognitive load aspect. It may be the root cause of much of the resistance. It's simply toooo tiresome for many people to adopt new mental models to help them grasp what's going on. Hence, they resort to their old models, which in the case of crypto would be to dismiss it as a scam.
The truth, however, is that it's an entirely novel way for people to communicate value that is constantly creating network effect. In hindsight, maybe 10-15 years from now, cryptocurrency adoption will seem inevitable.
The same people who are aggressively dismissing it now will quietly embrace it. We are the early ones and massively privileged because we overcame our initial skepticism for various reasons be it our natural mental flexibility or having the right people or things influence us at the right time.
I can so relate with this ^^^ !