Happy $100k Everyone!
So last night was pretty crazy.
And then I wake up to everything being covered in snow.
It's a Christmas Miracle you guys.
I watched in real time as my short triggered at $100700. The short squeeze I was predicting took us to $100715 so my order barely got filled. Then immediately the price crashed to $100k and the position was up $80. I Tweeted about it and wondered if I should just take the money and run because who knows what's going to happen. Shortly after that we spiked to $104500 and my stop-loss was sitting at $105k... so I was very close to immediately losing my $400. I doubled down the short there fully expecting for the stop-loss to liquidate the position, but when I woke up in the morning the price was basically in the same exact spot.
I ended up liquidating the position at around $102700 for a $100 loss. Not too bad. The market simply didn't do what I was expecting it to do. What I wanted and expected was a March 5th $69420 situation where we get an immediate flash-crash into a V-shaped recovery. That didn't happen so I closed the position. Seconds after doing so price started pumping again and I was glad to be out of the short and back to my absurdly hyperbullish antics.
Just got the call
Someone I barely know just texted me a bunch of questions about buying into crypto.
So it begins.
Crazy day.
No longer down $100 on that short.
What a whirlwind this is turning into. I reopened my short because longs were paying the shorts 80% APR and idiot degens put their liquidation point at $101k instead of $99k. Rode down the short from $103k to $101k and now find myself in the green $50 on this trade. I may take a little break from day trading because it's all happening so fast.
Trading based on the funding rate.
When the funding rate gets very high it essentially guarantees that the price is coming down one way or another. The funding rate happens every 8 hours which is 1095 times a year. So if we multiply these numbers by x1095 we get the APR. In this case I saw that the APR for shorts was sitting at 0.0728% last night which is 79.7%. That's an insane yield to earn as a short. Imagine being given the opportunity to farm 80% on USD. Basically when the funding rate gives better gains than Bitcoin itself it guarantees that price is coming down. This is how I was able to get my money back on the short plus a little extra just now. The APR is now 52% which is still very high so it will probably keep dipping, but I won't reopen my short unless we get another pamp.
However I still think after all this silly leverage is gone it's off to the races. The cat is out of the bag. Everyone knows that $100k is just a stepping stone to a much higher number, and proof that $100k can happen is all a lot of us needed for that extra boost of momentum.
So what about other exchanges?
https://www.coinglass.com/FundingRate
I found a funding rate chart on Coinglass just now and it gives a lot of great insight into how irrational bulls are being in this moment. The funding rate is still sky high and due for more correction. Market makers are being paid a small fortune to keep the books balanced. Which side will you be on?
Analysis
It's pretty awesome that we hit $100k before year's end, but we still need to go much much higher for metrics like the doubling curve to come back into play. And we will go much much higher... it's just a matter of wen. But first we need to flush all this degenerate leverage out of the system and let both sides recover. It's been a day. Take it easy.
The funding rate stuff sounds interesting I’ll have to try and dig into that to understand it better.
Shocked we got 100k! I’m sure I’ll be hearing from some of my friends on these wild prices!
Here's the post I wrote on it last month.
https://peakd.com/hive-167922/@edicted/funding-rate-as-the-ultimate-topbottom-signal--211
Dope thanks!
Yeah the funding rate is weird... basically it ensures that the futures price on the perpetuals market is very closely pegged to actual spot price of the asset. When too many people are going long BTC will trade a couple hundred dollars higher on perps vs spot. The funding rate then forces longs to pay shorts more money to bring the perps price back into alignment.
feels a bit like the time before the "covid" crash. all hype and glory.
or maybe i just want it to be that way. one last scary moment before the run...?
And just hours after this... it crashed down to 90k. You were a bit too soon... 🤣
Nah I wasn't too soon I called it perfectly.
I just chickened out of the trade.
Pretty annoyed about it actually.
I can imagine. I did that a lot! 😆
Merry Christmas, we only need to wait for hive gift Christmas.
It will coming soon.
I feel like we still have at least one drop below $100K in store for us, but I expect it won't last long now that the resistance is gone. It's like a late night out at the bar, once that seal is broken, you are done for!
Yeah when the funding rate gets back to normal 0.01% I'm going long for sure.
much better you got your funds out from the short, BTC at $100k is just a milestone and I believe also that more will take place in a matter of time, greetings.
Seeing BTC getting at 100k and over is quite exciting! Next year might be such a great one... also those funding rate stuff looks insane: just to understand it a little better, how much did you put on your trade to get those 50 bucks?
I was risking like $400 on an x10 short so I was actually going for a lot more than a $50 gain (more like $1000) but then the funding rate got chopped in half so I just abandoned the plan and took the money. The rate is still double the baseline so many I should have stuck with it but day-trading stresses me out sometimes.
Yeah, it looks stressful even from the outside.. I can't even imagine myself doing it, I would be too scared to mess up things and throw my money out of the window! Still 50 bucks earned from 400 seems like a very solid deal: not a life-changing amount of money, but still a nice profit.
happy 100k day Mr Edicted frenSir,
I would like to take this opportunity to let you know how much I love and appreciate your posts
merry 100kmas x
may next year make you rich beyond your wildest dreams. I look forward to visiting your nation state one day
That's insane. They need bitcoin to go to $152,000 just to break even, right?
Are these retail investors who have just had a rush of blood to the head?
It's starting to get crazy over here too. I walked by the TV and a news program that never covers crypto was talking about Bitcoin going over 100k. The reason? Trump ofc. :P
Looking at that chart I'm left wondering why you're not hitting ADA for that sweet 120%?
Anyway, gratz.
Thanks!
ahaha, as soon as I saw the alert I was like 'oh I wonder if Edicted is day-trading this'. You're (still) a braver or crazier man than I am. Maybe both.
Good luck bud!