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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 days ago
A look at the house price crash in China
China’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source As you can…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 6 days ago
Will Germany reform it's debt-brake?
The Scholz coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) collapsed last week, when Olaf Scholz fired his Finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP. The issue was the debt-brake. Scholz wanted…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 8 days ago
The oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential election
Here is the chart: source It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support line. OPEC…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 12 days ago
Is the American economy really that strong if the Fed cuts rates in two consecutive meetings?
So the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points following the 50 basis points cut in September. That's a cumulative 75 basis points. The last time we saw cuts like this was at…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 14 days ago
What does Trump's win mean for the US economy?
Well, the bond markets think his Presidency could be inflationary, leading to higher interest rates. Here is what happened to the 10 year US Treasury bond yield on Nov 6th as the…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 18 days ago
US 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%
Here is the chart: source They'd been heading downwards, right until the Fed in it's wisdom decided to cut the base rate by 50 basis points on Sept 18th 2024. And then…
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30 3
rose98734 (62)in #economy • 21 days ago
Bond markets react negatively to the UK budget
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, tried to leak most of her budget in the weeks leading up to it, so that both markets and voters had a chance to digest it in bits…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 23 days ago
VolksWagon is in trouble
VolksWagon was famously rescued by the occupying British in the post-war "British zone" in north-western Germany, and has continued uninterrrupted ever since. But the trade…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 25 days ago
Sales of existing homes in the USA are the lowest since 1987
... 37 years ago. Here is the graph: source What is causing this? Simple: many existing home owners re-mortgaged during the Covid era when mortgage rates were 2.5% or…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 26 days ago
Foreign holders dump US debt
Here's the percentage share of US treasuries held by foreign investors: source So, what's going on? First of all, who holds US debt? The City of London holds about…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 28 days ago
The next US President faces a huge interest rate bill
Interest paid annually on the US National Debt already exceeds the defence budget. But things are about to get worse. The US tends to borrow short term (5 years or less) and a…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
De-dollarization didn't happen, de-euroization did
When the Ukraine war started, and Russia was removed from the SWIFT system amongst other sanctions, all the talking heads started chattering about de-dollarization. Surely Russia…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
US Government spending is out of control
Take a look at the following chart of US Government spending as a percentage of GDP (the data goes all the way back to 1798) source Usually spending spikes during crises;…
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rose98734 (62)in #gold • last month
Gold and inflation
It's long been known that inflation is a function of the money supply. Or more precisely, a function of the velocity of money (how fast money circulates in an economy), and the…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
The European Central Bank cuts interest rates for the third time
... even though inflation hasn't yet reached it's target of 2%. It's currently 2.1% and is likely to rise this winter because of the rising cost of electricity and natural…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
The Bank of Japan holds ¥40 trillion of ETFs on its books
... the market value of which is ¥70 trillion. See the following graph: source As it exits the easy monetary policy of the last 15 years, it is likely to sell these ETF…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
Headline UK CPI comes in at 1.7%
... but services inflation is still very strong. The following graph separates out goods inflation from services inflation: source Because the headline rate of 1.7% is…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month
The Fed has managed to unwind 40% of their pandemic QE
40% of the Pandemic QE amounts to $1.92 Trillion. Here is the chart: source That means there is still another $3 trillion to go before we get to Jan 2020 levels. Other…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
Americans have stopped going to restaurants
Is this because eating out has fallen out of fashion, or is it a harbinger of something more serious? Here is a graph of the Restaurant Performance Index, compared to US Retail…
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rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago
Some central banks are cutting interest rates quite quickly
The latest country to cut rates is Mexico - they have cut by 25 basis points to 10.5%. This is their third cut this year. source Switzerland has cut by 25 basis points to…
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