• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 6 days ago

  China's trade surplus continues to soar

  Here is the chart: source The main culprit is sluggish domestic demand in China. Chinese consumers have slammed their wallets shut, and are instead focused on repaying…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 14 days ago

  The 30-year mortgage rate in the US rose for the fourth year in a row

  It ended 2024 at 6.9%. The last time mortgage rates rose for four consecutive years was in 1978 to 1981, when Paul Volcker was Chairman of the Federal Reserve and was engaged in…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 17 days ago

  The S&P has had gains in excess of 20% for three consecutive years

  The S&P 500 finished 2024 up 25%. It was the third consecutive year the S&P 500 grew by more than 20%. Here is the table showing growth rates since 1928: source Given…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 25 days ago

  The German economy has become more dependent on the USA

  Twenty-five years ago, most German exports went to France and Britain, with the balance going to other members of the EU. After the Great Financial Crash of 2008 and the Eurozone…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • last month

  Is the world heading towards recession?

  We've seen some shock moves by central banks in the last week. First, the Swiss National Bank cut interest rates by an unexpectedly large 50 basis points to 0.5% (one of the…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  Is France in trouble?

  French 10-year bond yields briefly rose above Greek 10-year yields. Greece, if you remember, was Ground Zero of the eurozone crisis of 2010 to 2014. Here is the chart:…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  German bond yields are climbing

  Germany has had exceptionally low bond yields for a long time. They actually dipped to minus 0.5% in 2019, which meant bond holders were paying the German government for the…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  Which countries will be hit hardest by tariffs from the incoming Trump administration?

  President-elect Trump has vowed to put a blanket 10% tariff on all goods imported into the United States. Here are the countries Deutche Bank analysts think will be hardest…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  Japan and China sold a record amount of US Treasuries in the third quarter

  So now we know why US Treasury yields were soaring in the lead up to the US Presidential elections - two huge sovereign countries, Japan and China, were dumping some of their…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  A look at the house price crash in China

  China’s property sector crisis started in 2021 with the default of the Evergrande Group. And Chinese house prices have continued to fall ever since. See source As you can…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  Will Germany reform it's debt-brake?

  The Scholz coalition (SPD-Greens-FDP) collapsed last week, when Olaf Scholz fired his Finance minister, Christian Lindner of the FDP. The issue was the debt-brake. Scholz wanted…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  The oil price has been trending down since the US Presidential election

  Here is the chart: source It's down 5% in the last three trading sessions alone, and as you can see from the chart, the WTI price is testing a major support line. OPEC…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  Is the American economy really that strong if the Fed cuts rates in two consecutive meetings?

  So the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points following the 50 basis points cut in September. That's a cumulative 75 basis points. The last time we saw cuts like this was at…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 2 months ago

  What does Trump's win mean for the US economy?

  Well, the bond markets think his Presidency could be inflationary, leading to higher interest rates. Here is what happened to the 10 year US Treasury bond yield on Nov 6th as the…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 3 months ago

  US 30-year mortgage rates are back above 7%

  Here is the chart: source They'd been heading downwards, right until the Fed in it's wisdom decided to cut the base rate by 50 basis points on Sept 18th 2024. And then…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 3 months ago

  Bond markets react negatively to the UK budget

  The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, tried to leak most of her budget in the weeks leading up to it, so that both markets and voters had a chance to digest it in bits…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 3 months ago

  VolksWagon is in trouble

  VolksWagon was famously rescued by the occupying British in the post-war "British zone" in north-western Germany, and has continued uninterrrupted ever since. But the trade…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 3 months ago

  Sales of existing homes in the USA are the lowest since 1987

  ... 37 years ago. Here is the graph: source What is causing this? Simple: many existing home owners re-mortgaged during the Covid era when mortgage rates were 2.5% or…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 3 months ago

  Foreign holders dump US debt

  Here's the percentage share of US treasuries held by foreign investors: source So, what's going on? First of all, who holds US debt? The City of London holds about…

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• rose98734 (62)in #economy • 3 months ago

  The next US President faces a huge interest rate bill

  Interest paid annually on the US National Debt already exceeds the defence budget. But things are about to get worse. The US tends to borrow short term (5 years or less) and a…

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