So today is the New Moon.
For the last six months or more this has signaled that we are about to enter a bearish period for around two weeks until the full moon. However, as you may recall, I've been adding some hopium to the mix, making claims that this cycle has "reversed polarity" (not a thing) and that New Moons are now bullish.
Let us consult the Oracle!
Hmmmm... interesting prophecy from the Scarlet Witch indeed.
What makes this more interesting is that I'm a Scorpio and I've been saying that New Moons are bullish now. Could this be the beginning of a volatile upset that takes people a while to get used to? Maybe. Then again, isn't it obvious that I'm just bullshitting everyone in another speculative nonsense post?
Hm, yes...
I'm not sure which side of the bell-curve I'm on, but I am definitely not comfortable fading the witch. To be fair: A couple years ago I absolutely would have, but things are just weird now. Unexplainable very weird things. Best not to question. Just ride the wave.
In any case I really like this bell curve meme. Seen it around a lot over the last few years. The concept that dumb people and smart people think alike, while average people are constantly overthinking stuff and falling into a trap of game-theory (that doesn't mesh with reality) is hilarious to me.
It's also important to point out how embarrassing it is for me to be following some high-maintenance right-wing thirst-trapping New Yorker who uses astrology to predict financial markets. How the hell did this happen? I do not know. One of life's great mysteries.
How long before she realizes that I sniped her @marenaltman handle on Hive? Should I give it to her for free or make her pay for it when the time comes? lol, I'm a dick. Business as usual. Just kidding I'd obviously have to gift her the account because I'm not looking to get cursed during Hive's apex. But maybe we can both profit from that exchange, eh? Such is crypto: the ultimate synergy.
I also sniped @woonomic and I absolutely will make him pay.
Damn maximalists.
PolyCUB
I found out two interesting things about the PolyCUB launch. The first of which being that Khal is basically going to front $100k out of his own pocket to fund the initial LPs. lol, who does that? Only this guy. Once you start really adding up the actions of LEOfinance, like refunding everyone 100% after the wLEO hack, things really come into perspective. This is one of the most trustworthy high reputation outfits in the entire space, and both LEO and CUB are still teeny tiny market caps that the greater space hasn't the slightest clue about. All I can say is get in early, but I guess that assumes that my audience doesn't already know about LEO, which I suppose would be a little ridiculous.
This is the attention economy.
Khal is showing us how it's done. If you want attention, you have to pay for it, whether that payment comes in the form of airdrops, opportunity, bonuses, privileges, or whatever else. One day people are going to realize that these meme tokens and speculative crapshoots are total bullshit. Eventually the only projects that will get any attention are the ones who pay for it. Khal already knows how to navigate this space better than 99% of the other players here. Pretty... impressive. I'm here for it.
Another thing I learned about the PolyCUB airdrop is that every single day a snapshot is going to be taken and used for that day's airdrop. This is a big deal because the airdrop lasts 60 days. This gives us a ton of time to generate hype, which will push the price up of both CUB and PolyCUB at the same time. The two will synergize back and forth, and with PolyCUB being highly deflationary and the end of the year being a potential mega-bubble, it really could get to astronomical levels of wealth-building in the short term.
CUB has almost gone x2 in a couple days just from the announcement, and there is an IDO starting soon as well. Khal seems pretty confident that $1M of outside money is going to come pouring into CUB for the IDO, and now that we're setting up the IDO to burn 100% CUB things could get extra crazy. In fact, we are only actually burning 50% of the CUB permanently, but that could actually turn into a more bullish situation than 100%.
This is because 50% of the CUB will be paired to the IDO token that gets created. If this new IDO token gains value during the bubble (or out of sheer merit) then even more CUB will get sucked into the liquidity pool of the new token. Setting up IDOs this way is insane, as it's going to give CUB tons of more liquidity pools and Kingdom yields to work with. It's quite hard to tell where all this synergy is going to lead in terms of token price, but hot damn these mechanics are looking very promising.
Conclusion
I hope I'm right about the moon cycles... Then again, this is November, and during bullish periods, November has always been an outstanding month. Even if we are in a bearish moon cycle, the chance of just trading sideways and bouncing off $60k support a few times is high. Personally I think we'll be trading near $100k in two weeks, or at least that's the target I've given myself to hold out hope for a Q4 mega-bubble blow-off top.
It's also feeling more and more likely that with all this institutional money and sharks in these waters that this time around might be a much slower burn to the top. A peak during Summer 2022 is still also on the table, and a peak there is perfectly in line with 18 months between major bull runs (the last one being $10k to $40k in December/January). It all depends on how quickly we run up this time around in late December / early January. If we are trading around $100k I'll expect a 30% dip and a slow burn ascension into the summer. If we hit $250k+ that's a blow off top and we should abandon ship.
The problem with all of this is that the macro market can send us to the poor house at any moment. If we have another COVID level event (or 2008 Housing Crisis) then all of this speculation goes right out the window. The market would then become more volatile and unpredictable than ever.
At the end of the day the best thing we can do is play it safe and maintain a balanced position. There's no reason to be all in on microcaps, ever. Always have some stable-coins on hand in case of emergency. Do as I say, not as I do.
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Oh the 60 day airdrop sounds like a great idea now. It allows people to build the hype and let's people get in later if they want to take the risk.
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What a way to get them confused, bravo scorpio :)
We are already experiencing a bloodbath, could come in more crazily, especially on a these shit loads.
I have a few picks on what could be much appreciative in price during this period, LEO, CUB, POB (Yep, I can't be wrong)
I'm surprised they didn't dumb regardless of Hive pump, that should be a hint...
I've always said that the Leofinance team's hardwork and ability to move with market changes is why I am a long term CUB and Leo holder.
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Leofinance team is probably the only time I can say that I feel safe in the hands of a crypto project.
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If the full moon maintains it's circumference then the market will go up. Meanwhile hive backed Dollar (HBD) went up this week and also the Leo, so we're expecting an upward movement for our stakes. Whether there's any scientific proofed for astrology, the moon will continue to move along its circumference.
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I still can't tell if you're serious about this astrology stuff haha.
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from an analysis standpoint we've been consolidating two weeks near all time highs at the obvious support line. btc only worth $23k but i continue to hold till the end of the year no matter what. the speculation doesn't really hold weight because my actions will be the same regardless.
me either
I mean, I also wouldn't want to get jinx during a bullrun or even worse, to get caught in the middle of a whirlwind of jinxes while Hive peaks but, on the other hand, sounds like something I'd like to prove or disprove. It's like ghosts or aliens, if I die young, I don't want it to be in my bathtub, I'd rather die of a heart attack because I ran into a ghost/alien, and at least prove they are real... you know what I mean? It's such a small price to pay to be jinxed during Hive's Apex BUT to finally have proof that astrology and all that bananas are actually true :P
There are more people in astrology now, that is non science, then in astronomy .... sad
LEO keeps on giving as usual
If you can use astrology to predict financial markets and be right 60% of the time, that turns astrology into science. Professional gamblers don't just become professional gamblers out of pure luck. It's a learned skill.
Very hard to make such a bold claim because being wrong 40% of the time kinda dilutes the "science" aspect. It's a very soft-science that can't be measured in any meaningful way except long-term statistics.
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You can take whatever indicator and there is a probability it can give you 60% accuracy .... for example my hand itches, markets will go down :) .... the definition of hard science is clear and astrology is not ... that said people can use it for fun as much as they want, nothing against it, just to be clear what they are doing.
Getting a 10% edge (60% winrate) puts you in the top 0.1% of gamblers.
It makes you a master gambler.
The fact that you think you can get this from your hand itching just signals to me that you are not a professional gambler. The grind is real. It is almost impossible to get a 10% edge on average. I say this as someone who's played well over 10,000 hours of Texas Holdem Poker.
Then we agree!
I'd say the most interesting sciences are the soft-sciences because they are largely ignored due to their erratic, unpredictable, and chaotic nature. We purposefully eliminate Placebo Effect from experiments with control groups, when the vast majority of the time Placebo Effect is far more interesting than what's actually being studied.
We are on the verge of expanding the sciences to exponentially higher levels due to the ability of crypto to monetize research that was impossible to monetize within the legacy system of capitalism. We are in for epic upsets and surprises going forward. Exciting times.
I even wonder when and how social got the science word attached to it .... social science .... and now this soft science .... I see this everywhere, relativisation and interpetation at will ..... even gender is now up to debate... can we have a debate about how airoplanes fly and airodinamics ... maybe we should turn the wings upside down, put some people in it and let it fly ... jk :)
This is what I have in mind when mentioning sciense
Ah well I agree it is pretty frustrating to have so many people running around spouting nonsense when they clearly don't know what they are talking about... and then they call it science.
Look at how many billions have to be thrown at quantum particles to predict their behaviors, in the end, the word science doesn't mean anything aside frome the fact that it can help rich white men make even more money. Outside of our limited animal perception, there is no time and there is no us. On the cosmological scale, this conversation never happened. I see that you like things, to work, to be predictable and make you money. Ever stop to think at how narrow your criteria for exactitude really is? I don't have a better grip on pseudo sciences like astrology than your average person, but in the end, I can see that science is just one big money making machine, a self-fullfilling profecy.
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The team is one of a kind, and they've got us all believing even when the metrics are not there yet
I'll have to read up on this PolyCUB thing. One thing I dislike with CUB is that I need to have some other token to stake it. My CUB is sitting on that CUB place doing nothing because I didn't get the money to stake. I'll have to reach out to someone who said they'd give me some BSC or whatever it is, in exchange for some Hive so I can do it. I'll have to do the same with this PolyCUB if it's the same as CUB.
When that day come, mark my words, it will be too late.
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Read how this all have started with Toruk
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new moons are the time to open new trades. Full moons are a sell signal.
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GO MOON!!!!!