Well that's fun
Rune took another major shit today, currently down almost 40% in the last 24 hours.
From what was looking like a $2 floor now trading at $1.25.
Essentially what's happened here is that while Thorchain is trying to figure out how to pay their debt >> the rats are jumping ship. Many of the ride-or-die community members were just larping, and now they dump all their bags and frontrun the coming onslaught.
This has led to a couple dozen nodes signaling they want to leave the network. Thorchain nodes are secured with RUNE, so when the network "churns" 20M RUNE is about to be unlocked. This hasn't even happened yet... so the dumping we see now isn't even the "real dump", but rather just the frontrunning to the dump. If I'm being honest it looks like this 20M RUNE is already mostly trapped with everyone else, as it's unclear who's going to buy tokens that have entered full on meltdown mode.
For me personally this situation is not super upsetting other than the fact that I was guaranteed my "risk free" loan would not be messed with. So Thorchain owes me 0.25 Bitcoin and now after today the chance of getting it back has significantly decreased (or will almost certainly be massively delayed). Then again I saw this coming a mile away, knew the risks, and take full responsibility. This would be the first time I've ever gotten rugged in any real capacity, so maybe I deserve it. The hard lessons are sometimes worth learning.
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In their infinite Clown World wisdom, THORSwap, Thorchains biggest frontend, has frozen their service as a "precautionary measure". As if pausing a frontend is a good idea when a metric ton of shit has just hit the fan; this makes people more nervous and convinced that this is a systemic death sentence and everything will crash to zero.
Making a decision like this is highly suspect, and the only reason I would ever do something like this was to create more panic and short Rune to try and make my money back. If that was the plan then it's working great. I will not be surprised if multiple people get sued for the actions they've taken today. There's undeniable market manipulation occurring right now. To what extent is unclear.
Rats jumping ship
Big names dumping all their Rune and claiming "I'll just buy back in lower".
Yeah, very cute.
Churn of death
So much RUNE is getting unlocked and everyone is frontrun selling.
I have to wonder how many of these clowns have said "diamond hands" before.
The network continues to scramble
None of these solutions are very great.
In fact this one is like "let's just sell the network to Binance".
lol
Everyone is waiting for the dust to settle before making a move.
MAYA says "PEACE!"
Maya community (Cacao token) froze the RUNE/CACAO LP to stop their own token from bleeding. LP providers can add or remove liquidity but nobody can trade. This prevents RUNE constantly dumping into CACAO which is very much a vampire attack at this point.
While it seems harsh... this is what MAYA has to do in order to continue moving forward. RUNE flew too close to the sun and MAYA will not let themselves be dragged underwater due to no fault of their own.
Conclusion
Thorchain continues the nuclear meltdown. There's absolutely no telling how low the token price of RUNE will go, but I'm fairly confident we will indeed catch the bottom somewhere. Whether that bottom happens to be $1.20 or $0.50 is another story entirely. Many of the users dumping today can still do so at a profit, so at a certain point that no longer becomes the case and everyone gets forced into diamond-hand mode.
This is a very upsetting event that some are trying to compare to LUNA, but in reality it's impossible to compare to stablecoin leverage because the leverage in question has already been frozen. All that's left to do now is wait and see how many paper-hands jump ship hoping to "buy back in cheaper" but as we all know 99% of the time when people do this they are actually just selling the bottom. Anyone who remembers the FTX collapse and $16k BTC can confirm this.
A lot of people out there will interpret this event as the beginning of the bear market (they already are with the LUNA comparison). Just a reminder that this is not how the four year cycle operates, and Bitcoin is still above $100k. Bitcoin doesn't care that this happened. Perhaps the toxic maximalists have created a shield that was needed all along. Or perhaps they'll be just as screwed wen MSTR stock tanks 95%. Until then keep stacking and remember: it is what it is.
There's that. To me this smells like an assassination by legacy financial killers destroying decentralized ramps. I never touched Rune*, but I was glad it was there because something needed to create that functionality in order for crypto to have the capacity to fulfill it's purpose at all. Absent KYC free exchange crypto is just Green Stamps being regulated by the SEC and managed by Sorosian market manipulators to fleece rubes.
*I am not in the markets at all, but am creating non-financial economic structures I intend to be immune to financialization and profiteering - and similarly from theft, rugs, and fraud. I doubt my effort matters to anyone but me, and the worst impediment to my success is the outrage of people I transact goodwill with that have earned financial assets of significance, who scoff the harder the more I eschew their money. Folks that never cracked 7 figures get it, and that's where I am most powering up. I mention it only because it is why I was not in Rune.
I see this entire situation with Rune as engineered purely on a gut check, and it pisses me off. How does it not reek? These 'risk free' mines that were strategically inserted into Thorchain to set this off are ringing my bells and I recall some almond activation and discussion with you at least a year ago, if not longer, but do not recall any details. I'd hate to say 'I told you so' but I sure hope I could if I was so crass. Because I grind other axes my attention to details is insufficient to cogently comment, but I don't stray from principles regarding principal and 'risk free' is a wrench in my monkey.
I will repeat this, though. The first rule of investing is to keep your principal.
Thanks!
To me it smells like a crap token doing what they do.
Not sure why anyone would put funds into this crap? Maybe I’m missing something?
Funny when I was reading about the rats and larpers I was thinking on some well known guy in here that has been shilling all the way from 2 to 10 almost weekly and now "plans to buy more under $1"...
Ah well. I guess that in good times we are all bros and in hard times it is a "Run for the hills" mood... Meh.
I'm glad I got out at $2.10. It's only thanks to Hive that I noticed. Pulled everything else out of there well over a year ago, I never fully trusted it. Just sold for BTC.
noice
💩 coins gonna do what 💩 coins do
Troof!
Messed up thing is that Thorchain for sure wasn't a shitcoin until they started making all these bullshit derivatives.
Ouch, another one bites the dust.
That's too bad, I used to hear good things about this one a long time ago. I saw it dumping and almost picked some up, then I looked into it further and held off. I cant reply to your X posts, no checkmark. lolz
you can't reply on X because "no checkmark"? huh?
yes, I'm not verified there. {twitter}
Never mind, I did a test and it worked.
Damn man ... so sory about that btc .. hope you get it at some point
Crazy news to hear but it seems like meltdown events like these reveal a lot about what does and doesn't work for a chain and become part of the history for future communities / cryptocurrencies to learn from. Sort of like figuring out what did and didn't work for civilizations.
Hope interests turn back in your favor! Thank you for sharing.
Man, what a shitshow. I love the project and it pains to see a very profitable protocol maybe killed this way. I was more optimistic 3 or 4 days back, crossing fingers for a small miracle!
LEO just can't catch a real win for the last few years lol. Glad I didn't get involved with this BS I think I finally learned my lesson about 6 months ago lol. Pretty wild stuff still going down. Idk how you can be that dumb to lose that much money and see that your system is bleeding funds. Or maybe you did know and just wanted to cash out. Super sus stuff going on over there and MAYA idk if they are going to be able to really keep stuff running wasn't it mainly built off of RUNE?
This is connected to Leo?
How so?
Hey opened their core swapping with MAYA which runs on THOR
Tough luck bro..
These things happen though, still it's sad.
Any possibility of them rallying price back up?
Is this what caused the price of BTC to pull back a bit or can that be attributed to something else?
!PIZZA
This is a surprise to me, because Khal said Thorswap did close to a billion dollars worth of swap volume in 2024. And suggested they should have no trouble raising enough investment money to make depositors whole.
But I must admit my understanding of Thorlend lend shorts all assets deposited there and longs Rune. A formula that works well during bullish market sentiment for Rune, but I was curious how they would mak this work in a market downturn.
I assume they were smart enogh to figure out how to survive and possibly thrive.
I may have given them to much credit, but I have adopted a wait and see attitude.
Sorry to here about your 0.25 Bitcoin, I have some USDC locked up at what was 80% APR, buit who knows now what that will turn out to be or if I will get my USDC back...
https://inleo.io/@shortsegments/rune-gets-wrecked-kmp?referral=shortsegments
Yes and in 2025 they went insolvent and in the face of insolvency did a bunch of other really stupid shit.
So how much volume will they get in 2025?
Probably more than $1B, right?
Guess where 90% of that volume comes from?
Trust Wallet.
If they get dumped by trust wallet it's over for them.
Their fate hangs in the balance based on the decision of a centralized frontend app.
Wow!
I didn't know they were so dependent on Trust Wallet.
It was my impression there were many wallets in their ecosystem.
The irony of a champion of decentralization being at the mercy of a centralized entity is amazing.
We don't need AI to write interesting articles for us, we just need to learn about our ecosystem and report the truth.
Truth here is stranger then fiction.
Congratulations you are now an owner of Thorswap
What to know:
TCY will be distributed at a rate of 1 TCY per dollar of defaulted debt.
The move comes after THORFi paused bitcoin and ether withdrawals a few weeks ago.
THORChain's members passed “Proposal6” to convert nearly $200 million of unserviceable debt into equity via a new token, TCY (Thorchain Yield), with a total supply of 200 million tokens.
This action was taken after suspending THORFi services on Jan. 23 due to financial uncertainties, as CoinDesk reported.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW
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TCY tokens will be distributed at a rate of 1 TCY per dollar of defaulted debt, turning lenders and savers into equity holders. THORChain plans to establish a RUNE/TCY liquidity pool with $500,000 starting at $0.1 per TCY, funded by $5 million from the treasury.
Holders of TCY will receive 10% of THORChain's revenue indefinitely, providing a long-term incentive and recovery mechanism for those affected by the debt crisis — although the timeline for total financial recovery remains uncertain.
THORChain's cross-chain swaps, its main service, remain unaffected. Prices of the platform’s native RUNE are down 10% in the past 24 hours alongside a broader market fall, extending 30-day losses to nearly 50%.