This morning's trading action has been insane.
So yesterday I took some gains off the table (deleveraged my long) at $66k because that green candle was the most massive one we've seen in a long time on the daily. I've been slowly DCAing my position hoping to buy back in lower, but the price keeps pumping. It's a little annoying but luckily a friend copy-traded me and got an even better entry point right below $61k so he is killing this trade. The plan is to just hold till the end of the month and maybe into November.
The market likes certainty.
There's a lot of speculation that a Trump victory is going to be good for crypto because the issue has become polarized and partisan, with the democrats opposing crypto to the point of illegally enforcing Operation ChokePoint 2.0 and Trump doing equally stupid shit like launch NFTs and saying he's going to pay down the national debt with a Bitcoin reserve.
At the end of the day it doesn't matter who wins; all that matters is that someone wins and that sidelined individuals and allocate their capital accordingly. Not only will a president be chosen next month, but it's also possible we get another rate cut from the FED, which the market seems to love. Then again I'm told the CPI came in hot so they may delay cutting. Not that crypto really cares in the long run. 2025 is coming and it's going to be the most insane bull market run of all time.
https://www.coinglass.com/pro/futures/LiquidationHeatMap
The last few hours have been INSTENSE
Bulls smelled blood in the water, so what did they do?
They x100 longed $67k to crush $100M worth of shorts there.
Epic squeeze!
How it started >> How it ended
By the time everything was said and done this gigantic squeeze left the degenerate bulls more crippled than the bears. Bulls spent $160M to liquidate $100M. This sent the market into a feeding frenzy, and the only players who won were the day traders who correctly shorted the market after all the bears were liquidated. This type of thing happens all the time, most notably on October 7th when we spiked above the 200 DMA for a short time before getting wrecked down to $59k.
As we can see from the history of long and short liquidations the shorts almost always win on aggregate. Pretty funny huh? Bitcoin is constantly going up but the bulls can't make money because they are too greedy. This is why we trade spot or have reasonable long positions like x2/x3/x4/x5; Not flipping x50.
Personally I'm looking to "buy the dip" as it were and hope we crash back into the guaranteed golden cross between the 25/200 DMA. This is going to happen in two days... and guess what else happens in two days? A full moon into the second half of Uptober. A dip down to around $63k is an epic place to buy in just like $61k was two weeks ago. It's starting to feel like free money at this point I'm already up over $500 on my long bet.
https://companiesmarketcap.com/assets-by-market-cap/
As a reminder to everyone Bitcoin already flipped silver back in March when we were flying high at all time highs. Do not be surprised when Bitcoin is trading above $200k and the market cap flips Apple. Crypto is entering an entirely new league in this cycle and nobody seems to realize what's happening. Those who do see what's happening are in denial or worried about being too bullish. It's happening. I guarantee it. And when it does the shear FOMO will be completely unstoppable. Prepare accordingly.
While it is very annoying that bulls artificially triggered the short squeeze and gifted all the money on both sides to day-traders we still have two even bigger squeezes at both $70k and $72k. If these squeezes bleed into each other we will pump from $70k back up to all time highs in a single violent wick. Of course in all likelihood day-traders will move in to short just like they did today and on the 7th. I may try dabbling in this insanity if I happen to see it go down in real time. Wish me luck.
Epic Battle
In the wake of shorts getting squeezed we can see the overzealous bulls got wrecked just like I reported on earlier. However, the battle rages on and bulls are winning the small fights. Multiple key short positions have been liquidated as we continue to push through these resistance levels that have been in place for 8 months straight. Again, I hope that bears win this fight and we get pushed down to $63k... however looking at the heatmap we can see that all the leverage is gone once we get to $64.1k... so I'll have to buy in a little higher than I wanted.
Conclusion
Golden Cross in two days.
Full Moon in two days.
Resistance is punctured and weak.
Bulls are still complete degenerates.
The second half of October is always where the real gains are made.
The clock is ticking on this bull market. I've been telling anyone who will listen that the opportunity to buy into Bitcoin for huge profits is coming to a close. There's still time to buy now and next month while being able to hold for a year to avoid short-term capital gains. Once this launchpad takes off it will be too late. We've been consolidating for 8 months. Winter is coming.
A lot of things happening for sure. My slight fear is that retail is out of money and some of the money will slosh around but that we won't get these high powered Mega FOMO situations like we have seen the last several cycles. I saw a thing yesterday saying that 76% of Americans are saying they are broke and having to pick and choose what Bills to pay.
It would actually be the best outcome if the market did not bubble.
Stability is better than volatility.
It is the stability that creates the volatility.
There is no escaping the market cycle.
You are right that retail is irrelevant but you are also right that retail is irrelevant.
It isn't retail that's going to create the mega FOMO; it's the institutions themselves.
I used to think the institutions were adults and wouldn't fall for it.
I've since learned they're actually even worse.
What if we don't choose a president in early November but the count is recounted and drug on until mid December? Regardless, good luck sir!
That sounds like Q4 rally no matter how you slice it.
I'm personally betting on the fact that the crypto lobby is continuing to gain ground and no matter what happens next month we are still going to see a pretty impressive bull run. I'm not totally sold on the idea that one candidate is good for crypto and one is bad.
This on top of the very highly likely event that Coinbase makes a mockery of the SEC in court.
Hopefully Kraken does the same as the charges are based on the same bullshit.
Yes, there is also that as well!
I asked in your previous post but I don't think you saw it.
What do you think causes the pretty consistent 4 year cycles with Bitcoin? Is there something mathematical or logical that causes the repetitive bull and bear cycles, or is it more of a psychological thing where people expect 2025 to be a bull year so they buy in and cause it to be a bull year? Or is it an organized whale thing?
That's an odd question!
It's common knowledge that the 4-year cycle is created by the halving event that happens every 210,000 blocks.
That's about 2,100,000 minutes or 3.995 years given 10 minute blocks (and not counting leap years).
It's assumed that less selling pressure from miners creates the cycle.
21M 21M 21M
You've been in crypto so long there's a better chance you're trolling me right now than asking a legitimate question.
But I'll give you the benefit of the doubt.
Pretty wild!
I SERIOUSLY FORGOT ABOUT THE BITCOIN HALVING.......!
Ah, I'm sorry man, I was thinking about external factors like institutes rotating assets or media coverage cycles and just completely forgot about Bitcoin itself.
Can we change our minds on this whole Hive blockchain is immutable thing? I'm not sure I want this convo to last forever...
lol sir that is fucking crazy
love it
The real question is how does this help the Dodgers pitching problems?
But seriously, I'm hoping you're right. I keep DCAing into BTC every week. Waiting for it to explode!
Even Harris recently seems to be positive toward crypto. I think the politics of it is really up in the air. But more seem to be accepting of it now.
But traders often don't seem to necessarily care about a lot of news.
Sometimes you hear some latest news blamed for some movement, but then later you find out it was something else entirely.
On the other subject, day trading is difficult and stressful. Good luck in getting in your position and that it moves how you want or expect.
Harris is a blatant liar and has been copying Trump's playbook for a while now.
They'll say anything right before an election to get votes.
Especially for single-issue voters like pump-my-bags crypto degens.
Her administration is for sure engaging in Operation Choke Point 2.0.
This is illegal shadow-banking that specifically targets crypto infrastructure.
There's more than enough evidence to prove this.
It would be absurd to think she would change course after being elected.
All this being said Trump is a fucking clown and Harris is a police-state bootlicker just like Biden.
I don't care who wins, but I will grab some popcorn to spectate the circus.
I won't enjoy it.
But I will concede that you're probably right that Harris won't do much of anything good for crypto. The specifics of what she will do or not do or allow to happen though, I am unsure about.
I am not privy to those dark decisions.
I don't think either will necessarily be good for crypto, as Trump is entirely unpredictable.
crypto is an anti establishment technology it's arguably good for crypto if the establishment opposes it. We dont want them to coopt or embrace it... but blackrock already has so the rest will fall in line
Blackrock is arguably one of the worst. And it wouldn't be a tough argument.
I definitely don't want them running crypto. But I also don't like them making it hard for us to exist. I don't like them acting like it's the same as their speculative assets either. It's very clearly something different.
Luckily Blackrock doesn't know what they are doing yet and they will fumble through the first cycle.
If we are very lucky they fuck around and find out and get absolutely crushed by the bear market.
Oh! That would be good!
But they're already in, so if we're unlucky they become Skynet or OCP.
Good luck in your trade. I can't wait for that price discovery wick up.... All models are broken... Apparently..
You should CW that!
Yep, bitcoin has shown another 2nd half October bounce back. Correction is coming you know, of course you do, keeping you fingers at the 61K price drop.
LOL good luck if you do catch it in real-time buddy. You're a braver man than I to be day-trading!
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