Did you see what happened yesterday, Anon?
So many things looking wildly bullish for crypto.
https://doge.gov
I gotta say it's one thing to hear it being talked about... but actually seeing a DOGE government website is a truly mindboggling experience. A couple days ago this website straight up had the DOGE logo on it. Then it changed to something else... then it got removed. @acidyo even told me when he typed it in the site was not secured with a certificate, which is hilarious amateur-hour for a government website. The site is still just a blank template. So I guess we'll see how that develops... I'm surprised DOGE didn't pump on a literal Department Of Government Efficiency website launch. They've been talking about it for a while so it's clearly all "priced in".
Ross Ulbricht pardoned
The Libertarian Silk Road celebrity has been freed. I was getting kind of worried to be honest. When Trump didn't free Ross on day one or even mention crypto or this promise... it made a lot of people a little nervous and even enraged. For every day that Ross was not freed you could tell people were going to get more and more pissed. I was thinking there was going to be a lot more drama here but then he freed him much sooner than expected.
I was arguing with multiple people on crypto Twitter today who are a bit uncomfortable about putting a "drug dealer" on a pedestal. This pardon weirdly makes Ross a much bigger celebrity than he was before, especially within libertarian and crypto circles. Already people are donating gobs of money to him for his new life. Interesting to see for sure.
Some are worried that glorifying the black market is a bad look for crypto. I would argue that this is exactly what we signed up for. Black markets are not supposed to exist, and if permissionless crypto has anything to say about it they will not exist. The government has no business telling us what we can and can not buy, and then in doing so create an exponentially more dangerous environment where the artificially low supply funds cartels and mafia willing to kill to maintain their power.
In fact there's also incontrovertible proof that three letter agencies like the CIA greatly profit from schedule 1 drugs, not only by selling product that they confiscated but being able to wield deadly force and coercion against the very cartels being funded by the black markets that the government creates. And then the losses are subsidized by the prison industrial complex through taxes and inflation. The entire system is a complete and utter shitshow that most people have an opinion on but little actual knowledge due to all the propaganda like the "War on Drugs".
The Qanon Shaman was also pardoned along with all the other J6ers,
but that's a whole other thing unrelated to crypto.
Crypto Mom Taskforce
Acting Chair Mark Uyeda announced Tuesday that the agency has created a crypto task force dedicated to “developing a comprehensive and clear regulatory framework for crypto assets.” The task force will be led by Commissioner Hester Peirce, a long-time advocate for the crypto industry, and will work closely with the crypto industry to develop regulations. The task force will also work with Congress, providing “technical assistance” as it crafts crypto regulations.
The most bullish piece of news yesterday by leaps and bounds was the announcement of a crypto taskforce being spearheaded by Hester "Crypto Mom" Pierce. For those who don't know (literally everyone I've talked to so far) Hester Pierce was the only agent within the Securities Exchange Commission who seemed to understand the nuance of crypto in a totally unbiased and reasonable way. Giving her power over a crypto regulatory entity is a massive win that will echo into the future in a big way.
“To date, the SEC has relied primarily on enforcement actions to regulate crypto retroactively and reactively, often adopting novel and untested legal interpretations along the way,” the statement said. “Clarity regarding who must register, and practical solutions for those seeking to register, have been elusive. The result has been confusion about what is legal, which creates an environment hostile to innovation and conducive to fraud. The SEC can do better.”
Peanuts!
Crypto degens are losing their shit over a reporter asking Trump about his memecoin, and POTUS responded that multibillion dollar gains are "peanuts to these guys". This leads degens to believe that perhaps number will continue to go up even though Trump clearly doesn't know a damn thing about the product, down to the market cap and token valuation.
And still Bitcoin trades flat
The fact that we didn't pump hard leads me to believe that we're going to continue trading sideways for a while longer. So much positive news for crypto is a massive catalyst. Number should have gone up. The fact that there is nothing in the market to catalyze should lead us to believe that we are in for some disappointment in the short term.
In response to these events I've moved to reduce the volatility of my trading account. Instead of being 100% BTC as of yesterday @ $103k, I've since opened an x0.5 short on my account (sold half my stack for USDT) to reduce my volatility by 50% during this weird period. I'm more than willing to capitulate and take the 2.5% loss if we move higher than $110k. This is just a hedge in both directions.
0.5x short? Why not just sell spot?
Going short on BTC/USD is superior to selling the spot market because the funding rate pays 0.01% yield every 8 hours to the shorts. This is the standard baseline yield. It can change but it's at the baseline so it's worth farming even though it's only 11% APR. A little birdy told me 11% is higher than 0%. This short has a liquidation level of $1M BTC, which I find slightly humorous, especially since the position can't be liquidated at all (which I tested by adding collateral to find that $1M is just a placeholder for infinity).
On the technical side... Bitcoin has support everywhere.
- Support at $96k (especially on January 31 intercept)
- Support at $92k (tested a half dozen times during crab)
- Support at $90k (MA(100))
- Support at $85k-$77k (Huge range that no one had time to buy at)
- Support at $76k (MA(200) + first breakout flag)
- Support at $72k (top of the brutal 9-month $58k crab market)
What does this mean?
Well it means that if we somehow someway crash 30% on a classic retracement I'm going x10 or even x20 long. Nuff said.
USA leaves the World Health Organization
This was not on my Bingo card, but I guess people were pissed off enough about COVID for it to happen. I can't say I'm for or against this move but it is quite the statement to make on the geopolitical scale. Take note.
ETH split?
Bearish news for ETH... the network is fractured and bickering because number go down vs Bitcoin. Will we see a new fork of ETH? Is buying ETH right now super risky? ... or is this the ultimate bottom signal? Could ETH be worth buying just in case it does split and we can sell two tokens instead of one? Truly I have no idea this is an absolute shitshow.
Thinking back to the Hive hostile takeover... there definitely was an opportunity to buy in on the cheap cheap... get the forked tokens, and then sell everything for a huge profit before it all crashed into the dirt. Many of us did not capitalize on this because we cared about the network too much. Luckily I don't give a shit about ETH so I can be much less emotional about these things happening to other communities I'm not a part of. Of course being a vulture isn't exactly honorable work. There are many variables to consider.
Conclusion
It's been an absolutely crazy few days and now that inauguration is over and done with, the price action seems to be somewhat frozen in place. I'm still holding out hope that the wildcard that is the month of February matriculates into an altmarket, but in the meantime we just need to get through this month and hope the bleed isn't too bad.
True.
I support that statement unreservedly. I'll go just a bit harder and say that no one has any business telling anyone else what they can or cannot ingest. No one can mandate anything you have to take, nor ban anything you can take. You're not their property.
Full stop.
Thanks!
A little birdy told you 11% is higher than 0%?!? I can see why you've been doing so well with your day trading now.
Personally I'm against leaving the WHO. I think it's bad for the US and bad for the world. It really just means the US has way less access to data and everyone is less prepared for diseases that we're really good at sharing by airplane now.
yeah the WHO thing is kinda crazy but I for sure am not informed enough to have an opinion on it
I'm curious if you've read any of the discussion around the Pandemic Agreement the WHO's been driving. I've read that several clauses enabled the WHO to unilaterally determine what was a 'medical emergency' and could include such things as automobile safety, firearms safety, and climate, granting the WHO power to create regulations regarding these issues that supersede national policies.
It is political scheming in that vein that makes me allergic to transnational agencies, NGOs, and governments.
I think one of the important ones to keep a close eye on is this new polio vaccine. As a result, I am not so convinced they'd go back to the old ruse, which there was a lot of preparedness that went on. If I remember correctly, it was The Axis of Evil: Bush, Obama and Trump, Part 1 & 2, I did awhile back, that when you get to the Trump part details a lot of how they went on about accomplishing that preparedness. This time it may just be rolled out like the last time Gates attempted it and become a disaster. The fact that Gates and Trump discussed the urgency in rolling it out all across the globe at the same time to ensure it's success from being able to mutate, well, it's Bill Gates, and he was not only run out of that last country but sued and won after injuries and deaths. But now the claim is they've isolated the part of the virus that was responsible for the mutation so this next go around should succeed, and especially if it's a global rollout whereas people, I am assuming kids, but who knows, get it at the same time it will prevent it from mutating in the first place. If you read up on it, some scientist say this go around they can't afford to be wrong even with a slight risk factor something could go wrong. The goal is to wipe out polio from across the globe but how much of a risk factor is acceptable if any within countries who have eliminated polio as a concern and the old polio vaccines works just fine keeping it that way. That's where a curious twist also occurs in all this, as when the discussion came about in the media, of course people threw barbs at Kennedy making claims he was trying to get rid of the polio vaccine, but it wasn't him, it's Gates, but Kennedy played it as he never wanted to get rid of a trusted polio vaccine that's been around for decades, but that's not the vaccine they were talking about, it's the new polio vaccine. If I remember correctly, there's been something like around two million, maybe two fifty, kids who have gotten it in studies and it appears to work fine, but that's not a lot compared to the overall global population. So this is one where people might want to keep their eyes on as it develops as Trump assured Gates of trying to get it done within the next four years.
Lots of crazy stuff happening. I'm also waiting on his crypto announcement and he also stated he'd look into what's going on with the drones. So I'm still waiting on that. Really happy Ross is free. Nobody deserved that sentence. It was extremely harsh not to mention all the weird stuff that happened with the case like the agents stealing his bitcoin. That alone should have tainted the case enough to throw it out of court. The entire case was a travesty of justice.
great post, thanks for all the updates.
Hopefully DOGE does go up.. I threw $150 at it last week..
#getrichquick
I think there have definitely been enough movies and tv shows about government involvement with the cartels that at least fifty percent of it has to be true. People who are denying it are fooling themselves. I heard Trump said he doesn't even know much about his memecoin.
Damn I didn’t expect that Eth split to start up that’s wild. People getting their panties in a bunch!
Glad Ulbricht was finally let go, they’ve been edging us on that for a long time.
Damn good summary, thank you :)
This is quite a lovely summary of news on crypto.
Now I know which pairs to look out for in the coming days...