I agree that the third option is the most likely.
All the tokens I am watching were dropping the last days where Steem was going strong. I am not sure if this is correlated but I tend to think it is.
At the end of the day every token does need to exit via Steem at least for now so if the mothership is doing well I am pretty happy.
Nowbody will complain if the STEEM price goes up :) Even if tribe tokens drop, overall it is a good thing.
Even better if more users come and start exploring the tribes and some actually enter some of them.