Steem Engine started operating somewhere in Mach 2019, and the tribes in July 2019. It is a new thing. Here we will try to look into the past performance of STEEM and the tribes tokens and try to make some conclusions. Can we learn something from the short period that the SE tokens have been around and apply it going forward?
During this short lifetime of existence of SE tokens, the price of STEEM has been going down or stayed at some low levels. STEEM started 2019 with a price around 0.25$, reached 0.5$ in March and April and at the end of the year it is somewhere around 0.13$.
STEEM Price chart
Starting from April, or even March the price of STEEM has been in down trend and showing some signs of bottom in the last few months.
After the HF21 in September the price of STEEM is in the range 0.10 to 0.15$.
In the past period the price of the SE tokens against STEEM in most of the cases has been going down. Most of them have followed a similar pattern. Hype at the launch, and then steady drop.
Here are a few charts on some of the most popular tribe tokens.
PAL
LEO
SCT
SPORTS
The PAL token as the first tribe has followed the standard pattern of hype and then drop. It reached 0.5 STEEM in the beginnings, then stayed around 0.4 for a month, and afterwards dropped down to 0.03 STEEM. In the last days it is swing signs of recovering trading around 0.07 to 0.09 STEEM.
The LEO token is showing strength, it also had some hype and down in the very first days, but quickly managed to find a bottom around 0.1 STEEM and made a steady growth to 0.3 STEEM, then coming back to 0.2 where is now.
The SCT token got some growth a bit later after it was created, and it reached around 2 STEEM and stayed there for a while. Then it drops down and now is trading below 1 STEEM in a wide range from 0.4 to 0.7 STEEM.
The SPORTS token has followed the standard pattern of hype and drop. Interesting it has recovered once from 0.0003 to 0.002. Afterword’s it followed a steady decline and now is trading around 0.0004 STEEM
Lessons from the past
Looking at the data and the charts above it is obvious that not all the tokens follow the same pattern, but in the most cases there is a trend for hype in the start and drop afterwards. There are some ups and down in meanwhile as well depending on the development on each token.
This has happened in a period with depressed STEEM prices.
When prices are low, most of the people tend to give up easy on their tokens. Its quite ironic but it is what it is. Some are buying and accumulating but this is the minority.
What will happen when the price of STEEM goes up?
There are basically three options here:
- The price of the tokens will remain the same in STEEM value
- The price of the tokens will increase in STEEM value
- The price of the tokens will drop down in STEEM value
Option 1: The price of the tokens will remain the same in STEEM value
The price of STEEM goes up from 0.13 to 0.5$ value. This is 380% increase in value. Almost 4-fold increase in value. If the price of the token remains the same those tokens will also increase in dollar value 4-fold. This is a positive scenario for all the tokens.
What is the probability of this to happen?
My personal opinion for this its low. Once/if the price of STEEM pumps up, people will start chasing the bull run and buy in. They will dump the extra coins and focus on STEEM as a more valuable and secure asset.
Now not every token will act the same, as seen from the historical charts above. Some will be dumped harder, some not. Some maybe will even remain at the same level.
From the price charts above we can see that these tokens have been trough the dumping phase and they have cleaned up their lines to some level. The remaining holders of the tokens are to some level loyal to them. But there will always be traders who will try to maximize the profit. Also, some of the holders will sell at least portions of their stake.
The tribes that have been around longer and maintained some decent level in value and activity will hold better in these conditions than the new once, or some with bad reputation.
This is the way the current user base will most probably act. The main unknow here are the new commers. Maybe some of them will find attractive some of the tribes and buy into them. The tribes have low volume and it is easy for their price to jump and create a FOMO.
Option 2: The price of the tokens will increase STEEM value
This scenario is similar as for the Bitcoin and Altcoins. When the massive bull run happened in 2017 a lot of the altcoins increase massively in price. New tokens, ICOs, all over the place and increase in price from the start.
As for the above my personal opinion on this scenario happening is low. This is the less likely scenario. The tribes that are around already have some user base and distribution of the token. They are not starting from scratch. Some of its userbase will look to sell at least a portion of their stake when conditions are right.
When the STEEM price goes up, for the tribe token to go up it will require more STEEM put into it then extracted. This is explorational growth. Increasing the price in dollar value a lot.
It’s not an entirely unlikely scenario but a one with low probability. It can happen if a lot of new users came in and buy into the token. As mention above the tribes have low volume and it is easy for their price to jump and create a FOMO. When bulls are around things can get crazy 😊.
Option 3: The price of the tokens will drop down in STEEM value
This is the most likely scenario. From the reasoning above and from the historical data its most likely that it will happen. The stakeholders of the tokens will seek to liquidate some of their holdings for STEEM. STEEM will become attractive and people will chase the bull run.
On the positive note even if the price of the tokens drops in STEEM value it can remain the same in dollar value or maybe increase at some level. Let’s say STEEM goes up from 0.13 to 0.5$, and the price of a token goes from 0.2 to 0.05 STEEM. The end result is the price of the token in dollar value is approximately the same. It requires a 4-fold drop for it to accumulate the 4-fold increase in the STEEM value.
Overall an increase in the STEEM value will be great for the tokens as well even if their price drop in STEEM terms. As long as they maintain the dollar value they are still in a positive.
All the best
@dalz
Hey Dalz, Nice work. How did you get those charts? Did you make them?
Is there any site when I can see timeline of price SE tokens/Steem?
Hey ... thanks
I made the charts with data from steem-engine api
https://api.steem-engine.com/history/marketHistory?symbol=LEO
Daym! It's so overwhelming. I knew my lack of skills in programming will take its toll someday.
Maybe making the site that shows such charts will be my new year's resolution? Or I will learn Adobe AE, maybe... :)
These charts are made with excel :)
Excel has data->web option.... and that is how I use the apies :)
Phyton will do the job as well .... I have some basic knowlage of it .... just to get data from api .... I want to improve my Phyton skills in 2020 :) That will be one of my 2020 goal .... Steem is a interesting place to play around and learn :)
Whish you a prodactive 2020!
Yup, Python is the Way
I wish you lots of endurance, stamina, and successes while learning Python in 2020 too!
Haha .... you always do things in an interesthing way ... Thanks!
I agree that the third option is the most likely.
All the tokens I am watching were dropping the last days where Steem was going strong. I am not sure if this is correlated but I tend to think it is.
At the end of the day every token does need to exit via Steem at least for now so if the mothership is doing well I am pretty happy.
Nowbody will complain if the STEEM price goes up :) Even if tribe tokens drop, overall it is a good thing.
Even better if more users come and start exploring the tribes and some actually enter some of them.
In theory, since STEEM is the pair, all tribe tokens should drop by a same ratio. Thus, the 4x increase in STEEM should result in tribe tokens being worth .25 of what they are at the present price.
Of course markets do not read theory so there are situation where this all goes out the window. I think pace of increase of STEEM is also a vital factor. Over night jumps in price versus it happening over 6 months have a different effect.
Overall, I think you are correct. Some will weather the storm and might not change much while others will collapse. A token like LEO might fare better with the high stake rate and the fact that a large percentage of the token holders believe in this project long term.
Agreed on the pace of increase of STEEM price. If its slow and steady the probability of tokens dump is lowere, vs shapr jumps.
I also think the third option is the most likely. Still I think LEO can withstand much better than the rest of SE tokens since is creating a new ecosystem and it is also playing greatly with the scarcity creation.
Posted using Partiko iOS
That looks like how things stands at the moment. But still this is all so new, some event, a big name coming in can make a big difference. This is true for STEEM, and for the tokens everything is on steroids :)
Hi @dalz
It is very well explained.
The only problem is that our steem is getting very low every time.
It is noteworthy that there are many initiatives to burn Steem and thus recover the price so that it can be on the rise
Yours
@lanzjoseg
Thanks!
Eventualy the tides will chamge and we will see some better days for Steem.
Hi, @dalz!
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Imo, good solid projects like leo will keep growing in regards to their steem price, shitty ones will be dumped like there's no tomorrow.
Lol .....The shitty ones should be dumped like there is no tomorrow :)
Looks like the hype is over :)
But they still provide a playground for new ideas, trying diferent thingz, testing and experimenting ..... some valuable lessons can be learned.