In theory, since STEEM is the pair, all tribe tokens should drop by a same ratio. Thus, the 4x increase in STEEM should result in tribe tokens being worth .25 of what they are at the present price.
Of course markets do not read theory so there are situation where this all goes out the window. I think pace of increase of STEEM is also a vital factor. Over night jumps in price versus it happening over 6 months have a different effect.
Overall, I think you are correct. Some will weather the storm and might not change much while others will collapse. A token like LEO might fare better with the high stake rate and the fact that a large percentage of the token holders believe in this project long term.
Agreed on the pace of increase of STEEM price. If its slow and steady the probability of tokens dump is lowere, vs shapr jumps.